Mujib Mahsal on Delhi protests

 The NYT's Mujib Mashal- whom I believe is of Afghan origin- write

Crackdown Exposes Limits of Modi’s Playbook for Maintaining Power

Modi's playbook for maintianing power consists of nothing but strategies to win elections. India isn't Afghanistan- now ruled by the Taliban- or Pakistan- where a former Prime Minister is in jail and President's rule has been imposed on his revolting province- or Bangladesh- where a student uprising toppled the ruling dynasty. Something similar had happened in Sri Lanka & would happen in Nepal (except that a young rap artist took power from an elderly Communist).

India, however, is not like its neighbours. The only way power is 'maintained' is by winning elections. Nothing else works.

Sadly, Mujib- perhaps for genetic reasons or perhaps because he went to Columbia- does not understand that, in a Democracy- at least one with a majority Hindu majority- those who wish to retain power have to appeal to voters more than their opponents. Nothing else matters.

Currently, there is a 'cockroach' protest, involving some Social Media type opportunists, and a separate agitation spearheaded by Rahul & Priyanka Gandhi whose aim is to convince voters that the only reason Congress has performed so badly is because the elections were rigged. Nobody believes this but, if it worked for Trump- in terms of keeping control of the Republican party & making a comeback- then maybe it can work for the Dynasty because....urm... India is like the US- right? It doesn't have an independent Election Commission. Moreover, until 1965, African Indians were denied the vote in most Southern States. Mahatma Luther King protested against this. Obama was his son. Sadly, Obama was mentally retarded and didn't understand that Rahul is a genius rather than a callow moon-calf with the mental age of Greta Thurnberg when she first rose to fame. 

Some people in Congress think that the 'Cockroach party' (started by a guy who was with the AAP media cell before that party imploded in Delhi) is Modi's machiavellian attempt to set up a younger alternative to the 56 year old, grey bearded, Rahul. 

The truth is, some of the young Social Media savvy opportunists involved in the current agitation are looking to set up as independent political strategists/ media campaingn managers who, after making enough money, accept an offer from one of the Opposition parties. Others are just kicking up their heels a little before ending up in some Academic or NGO ghetto. 

What really matters is whether the BJP can keep U.P- the biggest State- next March. This means that Akhilesh Yadav is the only person who really matters. In the 2024 election, his smart choice of candidates hurt the BJP & lost them their majority. The problem is that UP may be like Bihar- i.e. voters may remember the Samajwadi era as 'jungle Raj'. Thus Yogiji may win & what's more, become Modi's successor. In other words, he will be unassailable even if Akhilesh's party does well in the next General Election. 

Moreover, so long as Rahul remains Leader of the Opposition, he himself will be overshadowed on the national stage. This means that, though the Hindi belt gets more seats in 2029, he can't be the 'King-maker' in the event of a hung parliament.

Thus, Akhilesh may ditch Rahul & ally with Owaisi because Owaisi, unlike Rahul's allies, did well in Bihar which was swept by the BJP. I should explain, if Akhilesh allies with Rahul and is defeated once again then it will be a case of 'three strikes and you are out'. He will become like Mayawati- viz. not unimportant but no longer a Chief Ministerial face. 

If Yogi wins a third term, he doesn't just become a natural successor to Modi, he also gets the whiphand over the RSS. Thus, the BJP goes into the 2029 elections stronger than ever- particularly in the Hindi belt which will get more seats. The next decade will belong to them.

This does not mean the BJP can afford to be complacent. True, Rahul may- once again- destroy himself by his hysteria. But, what voters care about is 'last mile delivery'. Geopolitical uncertainties & the mounting cost of climate change could derail the economy. A desperate electorate will turn against incumbent administrations. What this means is that the early 2030s will be a period of unstable coalition governments. The BJP can still keep a lot of power simply by being the one party which can appeal to all Hindus, regardless of caste. 

In this context, it looks as though the allegation of illegally deleting Muslim names (or legally deleting illegal Muslim migrants) was helpful to the BJP in West Bengal. Might it also be helpful in UP? I doubt it. Yogi has already cracked down on 'Bangladeshis & Rohingyas'. He can only win on 'last mile delivery' & 'bulldozer' justice. 

The idiot Mujib says- 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India has long succeeded in isolating and undermining opponents.

No. His opponents came together in 2024 and thus he lost his majority. But it is Rahul and Rahul alone who has been undermining not just his own party but any party he allies with, for over a dozen years now. 

 The Gen Z protests pose a challenge unlike any he has faced before

Because it isn't a challenge at all. The Farmer's protest was a challenge. Modi had to eat humble pie. Suppose he had yielded to Trump's bullying re. opening the agricultural sector, his goose would now be well and truly cooked. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has long cultivated an image abroad as the popular elected leader of the world’s largest democracy,

He had a majority in 2014 and 2019. He doesn't now but is still wildly popular. Moreover, his party has won West Bengal & Bihar. If it retains UP, it remains unassailable.  

a sober voice of peace in a world of violence.

Everybody wants peace. Sadly, Trump is a senile buffoon.  

He has balanced that role at home in India with another penchant, as a strongman whose lieutenants have wielded the arms of the state at dissenters,

Stupid shitheads have been pretending he is a Fascist and that trillions of dissenters have been beaten, sodomized and subjected to slut shaming by his Stormtroopers.  

exploiting an increasingly pliant legal system and bureaucracy.

The bureaucracy is supposed to be pliant. The judiciary- like the Election Commission- is supposed to the independent. 

Of course, like Trump, you can say that any election his party loses is 'stolen' and any Judge whose decision you don't like was bribed and that, even as we speak, over ten trillion dissidents have been anally raped by Mahua Moitra's dog- who is being paid off with dog biscuits by none other than Queen fucking Victoria.

These efforts have undercut and splintered the opposition, cowed independent media and jailed activists.

Opposition parties don't want to lose seats to each other. They can come together to fight general elections but may part way for State elections. 

No media is 'independent'. It has to make a profit or get a subsidy. If Modi wins elections, most people want to hear nice things about him. Why? Because they like him. You make more money by pleasing the majority rather than by pandering to an antagonomic minority. 

If 'activism' means making a nuisance of yourself- sooner or later, the State has to fine or jail you.  

On Saturday, Mr. Modi’s balancing act broke down as violent scenes across the capital city were beamed to screens around the world,

the world doesn't vote in Indian elections. Modi, rightly, thinks these violent scenes hurt Rahul & help him. Notice,  Akhilesh has stayed away. Mamta & Mahua haven't. But both are seen as hysterical losers. Akhilesh is a former CM. He is 3 years younger than Rahul. He may win in March. This means he is a possible future PM. 

exposing the rough edges of his rule and the limits of his formula for maintaining power.

His power has been unaffected. There are no 'rough edges' to his rule. We see police-women doing their duty while 56 year old Rahul indulges in adolescent antics. Mahua, of course, has actually bitten a police-woman who, no doubt, has received a rabies shot.  

The police in New Delhi unleashed force at young protesters angry over what they say is Mr. Modi’s manipulation of the country’s voting system,

the BJP gained Hindu votes in Bengal by the perception that they were cracking down on 'illegal' Bangladeshi migrants who had previously been put on the electoral roll. Thus 'vote chori' (deletion of voter names) is seen as 'anti-Muslim'. But Owaisi- who did well in Bihar on his own- is standing apart from this agitation. He is signalling that this isn't really a Muslim issue but, like CAA, it can cause Hindu consolidation. But, by voting for a Muslim party (his own), the bargaining power of Muslims increase.  

bashing them and dragging them to detention by the thousands. Phones in hand, the youth have documented the harsh treatment, down to the dirty condition of the police stations they were held in. They found ways around an internet shutdown in central New Delhi to flood social media with content undermining the image of a democratic leader happily in control.

This image prevails in India- which is where Indian voters live. What Americans think of this does not matter in the slightest. 

“The old playbook has become old, it’s tired, it doesn’t work,” said Gyan Prakash, a

Marxist nutter. He is over 70 years old. The Commies have just lost Kerala. The Commie agitators in Delhi have zero grass-roots support.  

Princeton University historian who has written extensively about the Indian government’s descent into authoritarian rule in the 1970s. “And so what do they have now left? They have the police.”

Every country has the police. Pakistan needs something more to contain the threat from Imran Khan. But India is perfectly peaceful.  

Mr. Modi has remained characteristically mum on the protests.

 Modi is a great communicator. When he speaks, his words have maximum impact. 

His official social media accounts instead posted birthday greetings and festival wishes, keeping with his practice of associating himself only with positive things.

as opposed to stupid shit.  

But he still faces the challenge of how to deal with the mounting dissent, which analysts say

which ones? Gyan Prakash?  The fucker has lived in the US for the last 4 decades. He is even more ignorant of India than he is of US politics. 

is unlike anything he has faced so far. The once-battered opposition is feeling invigorated, trying to widen the crack opened by the young people through months of stubborn agitation.

Vijay's victory in Tamil Nadu (albeit based on the fan club phenomenon unique to T.N) has rattled the dynasts. What if some rap-star or movie starlet or maker of 'reels' gets momentum and upsets the electoral applecart?  

Mr. Modi had long found ways to box in opponents, dismissing them as lightweight or demonizing some as terrorists and “anti-nationals.”

Terrorists can get elected if those they terrorize are unpopular. Indeed, at one time, there was talk of Hindu terrorism. Sadhvi Pragya- recently acquited on a terrorism charge- got elected from Bhopal with a big majority in 2019. 

Anti-nationalists get elected in areas where there is a strong secessionist sentiment.  

The youth movement, however, increasingly draws on a cross-section of society that makes the protesters hard to target the same way.

Does this nutter really think the cockroaches matter more than Rahul & Priyanka? How fucking stupid is he?  

The government’s heavy-handed response has elicited rare objections from members of Mr. Modi’s camp, who usually maintain silence, including from a senior ideologist of his party and a cabinet minister.

 This is a complete fabrication. 

Mr. Modi also faces a generational challenge. He and his Bharatiya Janata Party, which has long combined digital savvy with a Hindu nationalist ideology that espouses hierarchy and uniformity, seem stumped by a vocal Gen Z cohort that responds poorly to that kind of rigid authority.

They can be crushed easily. That is why there is no point crushing them.  

The current wave of anger is

opportunistic. Akhilesh is keeping his cards close to his chest. Maybe Rahul's thunder can be stolen by non-dynastic 'cockroaches'.  

over what the protesters see as a threat to the sanctity of voting in India, and it calls into question Mr. Modi’s image as an elected leader with a strong popular mandate. His party often cites his three victories in national elections — Mr. Modi has been prime minister for 12 years — and its success in local elections in dismissing criticism of his government’s conduct.

But if Yogi loses UP, then it becomes a lame duck.  

Over the past year, a nationwide revision of voter rolls has culled more than 130 million names. Mounting evidence of chaos in the revision process and allegations that millions of Indians were deliberately disenfranchised have fueled popular anger.

This is a justiciable matter. Rahul has promised to submit evidence. There needs to be an investigation. 

The protesters are demanding the resignation of Gyanesh Kumar, an election chief appointed through a process that Mr. Modi dominates.

It is a constitutional office similar to a Supreme Court judge. Let us see what the two other Commissioners have to say.  

They accuse Mr. Kumar of doctoring the voter rolls to lock in the ruling party’s advantage for years to come.

Like Trump claiming Biden stole the election. No doubt, if the Republicans lose the mid-terms, we will hear more such claims.  

Mr. Modi’s party has rejected the allegation, saying the critics are sore losers who cannot successfully compete in elections.

Rahul is a cry-baby.  

At a news conference, Ravi Shankar Prasad, a senior lawmaker from Mr. Modi’s party, said, “We are not against protest, which is a natural part of democracy.”

Facing an earlier wave of youth protests over the summer, Mr. Modi made a rare concession with the resignation of his education minister

BJP won Orrisa. No doubt, Pradhan wanted to return there. He could be a future CM.  

amid mass agitation over scandals in college entry tests.

His party appears to have learned from that episode that giving in simply fuels demands for more, said Mr. Prakash, the historian.

In Pradhan's case, the same mistake had been made twice. Perhaps he wanted to return home.  

The resignation of the election chief could be particularly damaging, as the opposition could spin it as an admission that Mr. Modi’s electoral mandate was questionable.

It would make no difference at all. Suppose a Trump supporter learns that Trump rigged the last election. Will he now vote for Kamala? No! She's a darkie with a Hindooooo name.  

“They are between the devil and the deep blue sea,” Mr. Prakash said.

Indian Marxists prefer to live in Trump's US.  

Rajat Sethi, an analyst who formerly advised B.J.P. state governments, said that while the earlier protests against the education minister were nonpartisan, the current wave feels heavily influenced by the political opposition.

The examination mess was the fault of the Ministry. The Minister resigned. This sort of thing happens all the time.  

He said he feared that the opposition, in demanding the resignation of the election chief who holds a constitutional office, could bring about the kind of violent upheaval seen recently in neighboring Bangladesh and Nepal.

In Bangladesh, the Army refused to intervene. In India, the police won't need the help of the army.  

“My biggest question is: What is the endgame on this?” Mr. Sethi said.

This is a silly-season story which will end as the battle for UP heats up. Elections matter. The votes of poorer women determine outcomes.  GenZ doesn't fucking exist. There are young people who have to work and other young people who will have to work sooner or later. 

“Political parties are tasting blood on this, so they will be on the street because they have never be able to galvanize for the past 12 years.”

Rahul is committed to this and has Supriya Sule (Sharad Pawar's daughter) & Mamta with him. But both are has-beens.  both are has-beens. It is reported that Akhilesh will join Rahul tomorrow but he is said to be peeved at being kept out of the loop. He doesn't gain much from 'vote chori'. It is only Mamta who is doubling down on that shite. 

The government’s heavy-handed response has not quashed protests entirely. While it has erected vast numbers of barricades in central New Delhi and put thousands of security forces on the streets, protesters have kept popping up in different corners of the city, before police rush in to round them up.

New Delhi isn't India. Still, voters want the BJP administration to crack down on these out-of-town cockroaches. 

Leaders of the youth movement promised more protests after being released from detention.

Mohak Gupta, a 22-year-old psychology student, was among the protesters who arrived early on Saturday, only to find barricades and columns of security. All day, he said he played cat and mouse with the police and shared his entire experience on Instagram.

So this is about Instagram, not Elections.  

He said what the ruling party doesn’t understand about members of his generation is that they will do exactly what they are told not to do.

While Daddy pays for you to stay in Collidge.  

“They used force last time, too. They hit me with a baton,” he said, referring to the summer protests. “It doesn’t work with us. They made me more angry. How could they hit us?”

Cockroaches get stomped. Even psychology students will figure this out sooner or later. Sadly, it won't be the jackboot of the Fascist which will crush the dreams of GenZ. It will be life itself, or, more prosaically, the bitter business of having to earn a living.