Showing posts with label fake news. Show all posts
Showing posts with label fake news. Show all posts

Sunday, 10 November 2024

Gavaler & Godlberg bullshitting about Trump

 Back in 2017, two philosophers, Chris Gavaler and Nathaniel Goldberg, wrote an essay titled-

Beyond Bullshit: Donald Trump’s Philosophy of Language

Which was simple enough. Trump was and is a politician. His language is 'imperative', not 'alethic' save when striking a deal with a specific counter-party. The Philosophy of Language is stupid shit because it does not concede that our species evolved to communicate very well with dogs while hunting, doing guard duty, etc. 

In 2005 the philosopher Harry Frankfurt published a charming little book called On Bullshit.

It is shit. Franfurt's dog tried to tell him that by saying 'woof! woof!' Sadly, he thought it just wanted to be taken for walkies. 

In it Frankfurt distinguishes bullshit from humbug and lies.

Humbug isn't exactly a modern American idiom.  

Donald Trump, we submit, isn’t (usually) a humbugger or a liar. He’s a bullshitter. But he extends the qualities of bullshit beyond Frankfurt’s definition. We’d like to show you how.

Frankfurt gives an example of humbug:

“Consider a Fourth of July orator, who goes on bombastically about our great and blessed country, whose Founding Fathers under divine guidance created a new beginning for mankind. This is surely humbug.”

Trump can do this well enough. He professes to lurve uneducated people like me- provided we have votes.  

Frankfurt explains that the orator isn’t lying:

He is speaking in an 'imperative' not an alethic register.  

“He would be lying only if it were his intention to bring about in his audience beliefs which he himself regards as false, concerning such matters as whether our country is great, whether it is blessed, whether the Founders had divine guidance, and whether what they did was in fact to create a new beginning for mankind.

No. He still wouldn't be lying. He would be speaking in an imperative manner- e.g. a Doctor who thinks we are going to die but who says 'champ! you're going to pull through!'  

But the orator does not really care what his audience thinks about the Founding Fathers, or about the role of the deity in our country’s history, or the like…

He wants them, on this occasion, to think well of them or at least not to run riot burning down everything and beating up all the distinguished guests.  

He is not trying to deceive anyone concerning American history. What he cares about is what people think of him.”

He may do or he may not.  

Trump has also talked about the greatness of America’s past. Yet Trump’s statements aren’t humbug. He’s not in it only for self-aggrandizement, like Frankfurt’s orator: he’s trying to say something about America. Nor is Trump’s intention to bring about in his audience beliefs which he himself regards as false. Trump might really think that America was and will again be great. So he isn’t lying, either. Instead, Trump is bullshitting.

Nope. Trump is articulating a belief of his own which many Americans happen to share. That isn't bullshit. It is a personal credo, shared by millions of Americans.  

What’s bullshit?

It is Professors of shite subjects shitting higher than their arseholes and pretending to be smart by quoting equally useless Professors.  

Frankfurt considers an anecdote in which the philosopher Ludwig Wittgenstein chides his friend Pascal for saying “I feel just like a dog that has been run over.”

She'd had her tonsils out. She felt the way she imagined a whimpering dog, which had been run over by a car, might feel.  

According to Wittgenstein, Pascal doesn’t know how a dog would feel about that.

Fania could have replied 'you don't how I feel. Fuck the fuck off you stupid cunt.'  

“Her fault,” Frankfurt elaborates, “is not that she fails to get things right, but that she is not even trying.”

Rubbish! She was merely guilty of eliding the phrase 'I think' in 'I feel like I think a dog would feel if..'  But it is obvious that, if she is speaking in propria persona, rather than quoting someone else, then it is her own thoughts she is expressing. 

Wittgenstein, Frankfurt contends, “construes her as engaged in an activity to which the distinction between what is true and what is false is crucial,

No. He thinks she is engaged in an activity in which something she thinks is knowable isn't actually knowable. Truth or Falsity don't come into the matter. Humans can't know anything about how dogs feel because of some stupid theory of his own. But even if this were the case- and it isn't because of co-evolution between humans and dogs- it would still be the case that Fania knows better than Witlesstein what she thinks she knows.  

and yet as taking no interest in whether what she says is true or false…

A dog which is run over is in pain. She was in pain. She compares herself to such a dog. Witlesstein should have offered her his boner. Still, at least he didn't beat her- the way he had beaten a girl student of his in a village school- and then lie about beating her. It seems, his stay in England had made him less fucking Austrian. Sadly, it had also made him more unfeeling towards the suffering of a fellow Jew.

That is why she cannot be regarded as lying; for she does not presume that she knows the truth,

Sure she does. We know that a dog that has been injured is in pain. We are co-evolved with that species and recognize its whimpers for what they are. Speaking generally, we treat it in a tender and sympathetic manner though we may have to put it down if its agony is too intense and no cure can be offered.  

and therefore she cannot be deliberately promulgating a proposition that she presumes to be false: Her statement is grounded neither in a belief that it is true nor, as a lie must be, in a belief that it is not true.”

Her statement was true. She was in pain. Dogs which have been run over are in pain. Only an utter shithead like Witless could fail to see this.  

Frankfurt concludes: “It is just this lack of connection to a concern with truth – this indifference to how things really are – that I regard as of the essence of bullshit.”

In which case, the essence of bullshit is shit produced by shitheads who teach worthless shite because they are too fucking stupid to do anything else.  

Consider what Frankfurt wrote- 

Now who knows what really happened?

We do. Witlesstein had some stupid theory about private languages and so forth. Also he was a self-obsessed swine lacking in basic human compassion.  

It seems extraordinary, almost unbelievable, that anyone could object seriously to what Pascal reports herself as having said. That characterization of her feelings — so innocently close to the utterly commonplace “sick as a dog” — is simply not provocative enough to arouse any response as lively or intense as disgust. If Pascal’s simile is offensive, then what figurative or allusive uses of language would not be? So perhaps it did not really happen quite as Pascal says. Perhaps Wittgenstein was trying to make a small joke, and it misfired.

The nutter had previously confessed to her about beating a girl and then lying about it. But the reason he made the confession was because he thought he was super-duper special. Fania wasn't. She had a vagina. Vaginas are yucky.  

He was only pretending to bawl Pascal out, just for the fun of a little hyperbole; and she got the tone and the intention wrong. She thought he was disgusted by her remark,

as he was disgusted by her vagina.  

when in fact he was only trying to cheer her up with some playfully exaggerated mock criticism or joshing.

Women know when they are being joshed. They also know when they are being told, to shut their ugly twats. How dare you compare yourself to a dog? I like it when my dog licks me. If you tried to lick me, I'd throw up. That's because you don't have a dick. Also you bleed from your kooch once a month. That's utterly repulsive.  

In that case the incident is not incredible or bizarre after all.

But if Pascal failed to recognize that Wittgenstein was only teasing, then perhaps the possibility that he was serious was at least not so far out of the question. She knew him, and she knew what to expect from him; she knew how he made her feel. Her way of understanding or of misunderstanding his remark was very likely not altogether discordant, then, with her sense of what he was like.

Fania was well aware that some homosexuals in Cambridge really loathed women. But so did some of the more old fashioned dons. Women don't really have brains, you know. They are like parrots except they have vaginas- which are totes gross.  

We may fairly suppose that even if her account of the incident is not strictly true to the facts of Wittgenstein’s intention, it is sufficiently true to her idea of Wittgenstein to have made sense to her.

It makes sense to us.  

For the purposes of this discussion, I shall accept Pascal’s report at face value, supposing that when it came to the use of allusive or figurative language, Wittgenstein was indeed as preposterous as she makes him out to be.

No. He was taking a position similar to Nagel in 'what is it like to be a bat'. But, it did not apply because what was at issue was the question what is it like to think you are like a particular animal or object'.  


Then just what is it that the Wittgenstein in her report considers to be objectionable? Let us assume that he is correct about the facts: that is, Pascal really does not know how run-over dogs feel. Even so, when she says what she does, she is plainly not lying.

She is eliding the phrase 'I think' which any sensible interlocutor would read in.  What she didn't do was say to Witlesstein- 'you don't know what I know or think or feel. If you did, you would run away from me before I fucking stabbed you. Fuck the fuck off.' 

She would have been lying if, when she made her statement, she was aware that she actually felt quite good. For however little she knows about the lives of dogs, it must certainly be clear to Pascal that when dogs are run over they do not feel good. So if she herself had in fact been feeling good, it would have been a lie to assert that she felt like a run-over dog.

No. Her statement was imperative, not alethic. Witless wasn't a Doctor. I suppose it could be called 'phatic'. She was sharing something with a guy who may not have had many friends. It backfired because he was a stupid cunt.  

Pascal’s Wittgenstein does not intend to accuse her of lying, but of misrepresentation of another sort. She characterizes her feeling as “the feeling of a run-over dog.” She is not really acquainted, however, with the feeling to which this phrase refers.

Yes she is. She has seen injured dogs and cats. She belongs to a species which has found it advantageous to evolve sympathy of this sort. Sadly, Witless belonged to a lower order of animal. Still, he was good at beating the shit out of little girls.  

Of course, the phrase is far from being complete nonsense to her; she is hardly speaking gibberish. What she says has an intelligible connotation, which she certainly understands. Moreover, she does know something about the quality of the feeling to which the phrase refers: she knows at least that it is an undesirable and unenjoyable feeling, a bad feeling. The trouble with her statement is that it purports to convey something more than simply that she feels bad.

Indeed. It engages our emotions. We, as a species, like dogs. Motorcars are a recent invention. Dogs did not evolve to avoid motorcars- indeed, they may chase after them. When a dog is hit by a car, some deep, even atavistic, feelings are released in us. Fania had just undergone a medical procedure in a sterile hospital environment- something relatively new in our evolutionary history. She feels she has been run over by something modern which is beyond her ken. We sympathize. When I was young, some elderly people felt that the worst fate was to die in a hospital bed. The thing was unnatural. Even to have to go to hospital for a minor procedure was an occasion for dread. 

There's another point, mention of dogs normally causes us to want to stroke the hand or make some other such supportive gesture to the patient. Affection too is part of the healing process.  

Her characterization of her feeling is too specific; it is excessively particular. Hers is not just any bad feeling but, according to her account, the distinctive kind of bad feeling that a dog has when it is run over. To the Wittgenstein in Pascal’s story, judging from his response, this is just bullshit.

No. Witless came from a cultured enough family. Also he wasn't really high IQ. He understood well enough that the woman wanted him to stroke her hand and make sympathetic noises. He could have done so easily enough. But that sort of behaviour is a bit Jewy. Would an Aryan aristocrat stroke a Jewess's hand? Fuck off! He'd send her to some nice gas chamber while maintaining a very stiff upper lip. Homos care a lot about stiffness, you know. 

Now assuming that Wittgenstein does indeed regard Pascal’s characterization of how she feels as an instance of bullshit, why does it strike him that way? It does so, I believe, because he perceives what Pascal says as being — roughly speaking, for now — unconnected to a concern with the truth.

She wasn't concerned with telling Witless the truth- viz. that he was a fucking maniac who should have gone to jail for beating and then lying about beating a little girl.  

Her statement is not germane to the enterprise of describing reality. She does not even think she knows, except in the vaguest way, how a run-over dog feels.

We all know dogs don't feel good about being run over by cars or wheeled vehicles which haven't existed for very long in our evolutionary history.  

Her description of her own feeling is, accordingly, something that she is merely making up.

Nope. What she said was allusive and highly informative. The proper response is to show sympathy and then say how you find the nurses and Doctors at this place to be full of compassion though, for professional reasons, they try to conceal their tender concern for their patients. Next time you visit, you bring lots of flowers to brighten the place up. Also, why not bring a teddy bear or chocolate box with a nice picture of a puppy dog or cute little kitten on it?  

She concocts it out of whole cloth; or, if she got it from someone else, she is repeating it quite mindlessly and without any regard for how things really are.

Fania didn't have a dick. Thus she was either a liar or was utterly mindless. Good to know philosophy is as misogynistic as it was in Aristotle's time.  

It is for this mindlessness that Pascal’s Wittgenstein chides her. What disgusts him is that Pascal is not even concerned whether her statement is correct. There is every likelihood, of course, that she says what she does only in a somewhat clumsy effort to speak colorfully, or to appear vivacious or good-humored; and no doubt Wittgenstein’s reaction — as she construes it — is absurdly intolerant. Be this as it may, it seems clear what that reaction is.

He ignores all relevant facts of the case- viz. Fania has undergone a medical procedure and is recovering, far from the bosom of her family, in a sterile atmosphere which seems to work like a factory rather than a place of healing and recovery. She compares herself to a dog hit by a car. She is literally whimpering with pain but is denied such caresses as even Witless would not with-hold from a dog. The truth is, some Jews at that time thought that the emotional and sympathetic part of their psyche was something which needed to be suppressed. The Aryan master-race laughed heartily when they saw a sick woman and quickly arranged for her to be gassed. Maybe a tasteful lampshade could be made from her skin. 

He reacts as though he perceives her to be speaking about her feeling thoughtlessly, without conscientious attention to the relevant facts. Her statement is not “wrought with greatest care.”

As I have shown, it was better than that. Both Pascals were literary scholars. It was their business to use language in a skilful manner.  

She makes it without bothering to take into account at all the question of its accuracy.

So does Witless. So does Frankfurt. So did Aristotle and Frege and Russell. But Fania hits the nail on the head. She had studied Russian and German and English literature to some good purpose.  

The point that troubles Wittgenstein is manifestly not that Pascal has made a mistake in her description of how she feels. Nor is it even that she has made a careless mistake. Her laxity, or her lack of care, is not a matter of having permitted an error to slip into her speech on account of some inadvertent or momentarily negligent lapse in the attention she was devoting to getting things right. The point is rather that, so far as Wittgenstein can see, Pascal offers a description of a certain state of affairs without genuinely submitting to the constraints which the endeavor to provide an accurate representation of reality imposes. Her fault is not that she fails to get things right, but that she is not even trying.

She gets things right and then some. She knew about the 'Imagism' of people like Pound and Hulme. There is a concrete image here- whose 'haecceity' is also an epiphany of a universal type. A cultured literary scholar adrift in the age of, not Pushkin and Goethe but Hitler and Stalin, was indeed like a dog that had been run over by a type of contraption it could have no conception of.  

This is important to Wittgenstein because, whether justifiably or not, he takes what she says seriously, as a statement purporting to give an informative description of the way she feels. He construes her as engaged in an activity to which the distinction between what is true and what is false is crucial, and yet as taking no interest in whether what she says is true or false.

This is not the case. He is merely giving expression to a bee in his own philosophical bonnet. But his philosophy was stupid and had been superseded by Godel, Gentzen, Tarski or Turing (who used Brouwer choice sequences to some good purpose).  

It is in this sense that Pascal’s statement is unconnected to a concern with truth: she is not concerned with the truth-value of what she says.

Imperative statements aren't alethic. Get over it.  

That is why she cannot be regarded as lying; for she does not presume that she knows the truth, and therefore she cannot be deliberately promulgating a proposition that she presumes to be false: Her statement is grounded neither in a belief that it is true nor, as a lie must be, in a belief that it is not true. It is just this lack of connection to a concern with truth — this indifference to how things really are — that I regard as of the essence of bullshit.

Bullshit is jargon of a pedantic or professional type. 'I feel like the phlogiston in the haemoglobin of my Pineal gland is adversely affecting the peristalsis of my endocrine system- just like that Manchurian dog studied by Pavlov which was hit by a Ukrainian tractor. That's why I'd appreciate it if you could buy me some heroin. Also cocaine. Prof. Rumpelstilskin recommends cocaine very highly for people like me because of our very large penises.'  


Now I shall consider (quite selectively) certain items in the Oxford English Dictionary that are pertinent to clarifying the nature of bullshit. The OED defines a bull session as “an informal conversation or discussion, esp. of a group of males.”

Bulls are masculine. A bunch of guys may be referred to as bulls unless they kissing each other in which case they are as gay as fuck.  

Now as a definition, this seems wrong.

It isn't a definition. It is a focal solution to a coordination game. The term bull-session arose spontaneously and was used in different ways by different people. It became convenient to give it one higher salience meaning though others were welcome to say 'in our State, 'bull session' means 'Chatham House rules' or else 'where I come from, 'bull session' involves bawdy talk and the drinking of beer'.  

For one thing, the dictionary evidently supposes that the use of the term bull in bull session serves primarily just to indicate gender. But even if it were true that the participants in bull sessions are generally or typically males, the assertion that a bull session is essentially nothing more particular than an informal discussion among males would be as far off the mark as the parallel assertion that a hen session is simply an informal conversation among females.

In England we speak of 'hen nights'. Nothing wrong in that at all.  

It is probably true that the participants in hen sessions must be females. Nonetheless the term hen session conveys something more specific than this concerning the particular kind of informal conversation among females to which hen sessions are characteristically devoted.

No it doesn't. Women can be very bawdy indeed.  

What is distinctive about the sort of informal discussion among males that constitutes a bull session is, it seems to me, something like this: while the discussion may be intense and significant, it is in a certain respect not “for real.”

It may be, it may not. You may not be called on your bullshit at a faculty meeting but may be forced to stop pretending to be woke in a bull session. 

Returning to Gavaler & Goldberg we find that they think Trump is as nice and as cultured as the lovely Favia. 

Trump is a lot like Pascal.

She was a nice lady. Witless wasn't a nice man.  

After the heating and cooling systems manufacturer Carrier announced it would keep jobs in Indiana due to tax incentives, Trump talked about watching an interview with a Carrier employee. The Washington Post quoted Trump describing the employee:

“He said something to the effect, ‘No we’re not leaving, because Donald Trump promised us that we’re not leaving.” Trump added, “I actually said I didn’t make [the promise]. When they played [my statement back], I said, ‘I did make it [to Carrier], but I didn’t mean it quite that way’.” As he explained: “I never thought I made that promise – not with Carrier. I made it for everybody else. I didn’t make it really for Carrier.” The promise was, he said: “A euphemism. I was talking about Carrier like all other companies from here on in, because they made the decision a year and a half ago.”

This is a bit garbled but we get what Trump meant. He hadn't made a secret deal with a particular company. The tax incentives could be claimed by any company.  

Aaron Blake, who included Trump’s explanation in an opinion piece in the Post, rejoined,

“You can make an argument that Trump was perhaps speaking more generally and using Carrier as an example of the type of company that would no longer be leaving under his presidency.”

Why bother? The thing is clear enough. Trump created tax incentives for everybody. He wasn't playing favourites.  

If so, Trump was employing a synecdoche – a part used to refer to the whole. That would mean that ‘Carrier’ meant, say, all U.S. manufacturers. Except Trump apparently meant ‘everybody else’: that is, everybody except Carrier.

He misspoke. So what?  

Blake continued:

“But this is a statement he made while in Indiana – in front of people who had a very strong interest in taking him literally. They did, and yet he was apparently surprised by that. Any studied politician would know that if you are in Indiana and you say Carrier won’t leave, you had better mean those exact words.”

Nonsense! You say what your audience wants to hear. Maybe you do something to bring about that outcome. Maybe you don't. 'Studied' politicians know that. But so do voters. That's why actual tax incentives, not imaginary ones, matter.  

By “you had better mean those exact words”, Blake is

showing his utter naivete.  

getting at what philosopher H. Paul Grice calls ‘implicature’ (see especially Grice’s Studies in the Way of Words, 1989).

No he isn't. Blake is saying explicitly, not implicitly, that 'studied' politicians must keep promises they make. But this simply isn't true. We often want people to promise to do things which we don't want them to do. Thus, when my wife promised my Mum she would not deflower me, Mum hoped she would not keep her promise. This is because Mum wanted a grandchild. She didn't really care if I suffered horribly at the hands of my lustful bride.  

Implicature is concerned not only with what you actually say, but with what you imply by what you say.

Or what you hope the other party will consider was implied by what you said or didn't say or the fact that you were farting with vim and vigour all through the interview.  

Speakers communicate the meaning of their words in one of two ways: conventionally, by the words themselves, or conversationally, by their use of words in a specific context. Both ways require speakers and audience working together.

Nope. There are umpteen ways you can communicate. I do it with farts. You do it with flowers. Others prefer deeds to words. Yet others just expose their vaginas and point at it in an emphatic manner.  

According to Grice, all good communication follows the Cooperative Principle:

He was wrong. If I see a crowd of people screaming hysterically and running in one direction, I join them. There is probably some clear and present danger I need to get the fuck away from.  

“Make your conversational contribution such as is required, at the stage at which it occurs, by the accepted purpose or direction of the talk exchange in which you are engaged.”

Fuck that! Ex ungue leonem- scream and run away if you see the paw of a lion- is a good way of communicating to others that they need to run the fuck away. Cows don't bother with the 'cooperative principle'. Nor do hunters with their dogs.  

Grice divides this Principle into four maxims:

Because Stupidity can always be further subdivided.  

Quantity: Make your contribution as – but only as – informative as required.

Fuck that. Just run away and others will get the idea that they need to run away too.  

Quality: Try to make your contribution true.

Thus, if you say 'I feel like shit' you should also shit yourself and smear yourself with shit so that you will feel truly shitty.  

Relation: Be relevant.

e.g. when talking about a politician don't drag in Witlesstein and Grice and other such useless shitheads.  

Manner: Be clear by avoiding obscurity and ambiguity, and by striving for brevity and order.

in other words, don't do philosophy of any kind. The thing is just a cascade of intensional fallacies.  

Speakers routinely flout those maxims, which is part of Grice’s point.

In other words, Grice is saying 'I have a theory which does not fit the facts. This does not mean I'm a shithead. It means everybody else is.'  

Flouting a maxim conventionally indicates that a speaker is instead communicating conversationally.

Or is a philosopher. Nothing which these two nutters has been 'informative', 'true', 'relevant' or 'brief'.  

So if I ask you whether you had a good holiday, and you reply, “Beautiful weather we’re having!” then you’re flouting (at least) the Relation maxim.

Nope. You are saying 'we aren't close. I tell my friends about my holidays. To acquaintances, I only speak about the weather.'  

Today’s weather isn’t relevant to my question.

But the answer clearly establishes you aren't a friend. You are an acquaintance. Don't get above yourself.  

Taken conversationally, however – that is, by understanding what you said in terms of the context in which you said it – what you said makes communicative sense. You’re indirectly telling me that your holiday wasn’t good.

Nonsense! If I ask my boss about his holiday he puts me in my place by mentioning the weather. This is the polite way of doing things. If I persist in treating him like a comrade, he might sack me.  

Does Trump follow the Cooperative Principle of communication?

At times, very successfully indeed. At others he is all over the place. Still, once Comey at the FBI raised the red-herring of Hilary's emails, Trump stayed on point for 12 whole days and thus won the election.  

According to journalist Salena Zito, “his supporters take him seriously, but not literally.”

Just as they took Obama and Biden seriously but not literally.  

If so, Trump flouts the maxims conventionally in order to communicate conversationally.

These two nutters think a good conversation goes like this-

'I feel like shit.'

'No you don't! Shit has no feelings!'

'Go fuck yourself you fat cunt!'

'I have a dick, not a vagina. I can't fuck myself because my dick isn't long enough and bendy enough to reach my asshole. Why are you punching me? What is the Gricean implicature of this illegal assault?' 

In the above quote he flouted Quantity. Saying ‘Carrier’ when he avowedly meant every U.S. manufacturing giant apart from Carrier, gave his audience too little information.

Nope. His audience got that his tax incentives had helped keep jobs in the State- e.g. Carrier.  

He flouted Relation: ‘Carrier’ isn’t relevant to companies other than Carrier.

Yes it is. What other firms find it profitable to do is highly relevant to any given enterprise.  

He flouted Manner: he was embracing rather than avoiding obscurity and ambiguity.

Not in any material sense. Anyway, Biden and Bush and Kamala often indulged in worse word-salads.  

And Quality? If by ‘Carrier’ Trump genuinely meant everyone except Carrier, he did try to make his contribution true. He just flouted the other maxims. But if by ‘Carrier’ Trump meant what everyone else took him to mean – namely, Carrier – he didn’t try to make his contribution true. Yet he didn’t lie, since he didn’t mean to deceive. Trump just said something that felt right at the time. He wasn’t concerned with the truth of what he was saying at all. That’s the essence of bullshit.

No. This is merely fractured syntax where your intended meaning is clear enough. The essence of bullshit is to start gassing on about Witlesstein and Grice and pedants more obscure yet.  

But Trump one-ups Frankfurt’s notion of bullshit. While Trump wasn’t concerned with the truth, and his intent wasn’t to deceive, he nevertheless was concerned with what his audience thought. He wanted people in Indiana to think he was going to make America great again, whether or not Carrier – or everyone except Carrier – had anything to do with it.

Nothing wrong with that. Americans want America to be Great. They don't want it to be a shithole.  

Yet it’s hard to see what could have conversationally clued his audience into this meaning.

My tax incentives ensure there will be jobs for youse guys. That was the meaning.  

As Blake observes, many in Indiana weren’t clued in.

Only because they were cows.  

By flouting all of Grice’s maxims conventionally, and not clearly communicating even conversationally, Trump wasn’t communicating with his audience so much as talking at them.

He got his message across to them well enough. These two nutters are talking at us not to us because they are not concerned with the relevance, informativity or truth value of their claims which, in nuce, is that they teach a subject which will enable you to become a Professor like Jason Stanley or Amia Srinivasan who says 'boo to Trump! He is a bad man. Also, he has a dick. Dicks cause RAPE! Did you know that Professor Grice raped Wittgenstein with his dick due to Hitler was actually Donald Trump?' 

His speech was governed by what we might call the Anti-Cooperative Principle:

you might call it that because you have shit for brains.  

Make your conversational contribution seem such as is required, at the stage at which it occurs, by the accepted purpose or direction of the talk exchange in which you are engaged, even though it’s not.

The purpose is to say 'boo to Trump! Did you know he has a dick? Dicks cause RAPE! Also Neo-Liberalism.'  

That’s beyond bullshit.

Nope. It is philosophy as a failed research program adversely selective of idiots. 

The plain fact is, language is about Schelling focal solutions to coordination and discoordination games. It isn't about Truth or 'Bullshit' or 'epistemic systems'. Now, it is certainly true that certain types of language or certain 'Structural Causal Models'- e.g. using the N-word and saying 'Country X is a shithole because it is run by Niggers'- can put you at risk of having your head kicked in and thus the Schelling focal solution to the coordination game can change. But that's because what matters is coordination not on what basis that coordination occurs. 

In their latest book 'Revising Reality' these two nutters ask

What happened to the original, green-scaled dinosaurs after scientists decided dinosaurs had multi-colored feathers?

Nothing. Birds are descended from dinosaurs. Big whoop.  

When overturning Roe v. Wade, did the Supreme Court end the right to abortion,

No. America has dual sovereignty. Each State can decide the matter for itself.  

or did the Court claim that the right of the previous half century never existed?

Nope. The right existed for a period and then ceased to exist. The Supreme Court decides matters relating to Dual Sovereignty.  

Since Ronald Reagan increased taxes,

he cut them and then Congress forced him to raise them 

expanded government,

he didn't want to. Still, 'politics is the art of the possible'. Had Reagan faced the type of Congress America had in 2012, he would have been able to do much more. 

and championed amnesty for undocumented immigrants,

he listened to the farmers. He had been a two term Governor of California. But immigration wasn't a hot potato back then.  

who is the Ronald Reagan whom today's conservatives champion as a model president?

The guy who defeated the 'Evil Empire'  

When a trans person comes out as trans, has their gender changed or has their gender remained consistent?

It hasn't changed till there is a medical procedure or determination. Some argue that I should be allowed to claim to be a woman even though I still have my dangly bits. Women don't seem to be too keen to embrace me as a sister. Indeed, they don't want to embrace me period.  

Are our memories accounts of real events or some kind (or kinds) of revision?

They are largely revisions or confabulations.  

And if our memories are in flux, what does that say about our memory-dependent identities?

Nothing. Identities are linked to physical bodies even if, after a blow to the head, I become convinced I am Beyonce.  True, if I am a homicidal maniac with a machine gun, people may say 'Beyonce! How lovely to meet you' rather than 'look at that crazy fat cunt'. But this has nothing to do with philosophy. 


Monday, 18 July 2022

Thomas Kuhn & January 6

In 'The road since Structure' Thomas Kuhn wrote of 'the no-overlap principle' 

no two kind terms, no two terms with the kind label, may overlap in their referents unless they are related as species to genus. There are no dogs that are also cats,

We don't know that. There may be. There may not. It is possible that some day geneticists may transform your kitten into a puppy or vice versa. It may also be possible to upload the consciousness of your pet to the cloud and download it into different meat-suits. 

The fact is 'kind labels' are only protocol bound for a specific purpose. Suppose I leave all my money to my pet, Fido. My executor assumes Fido is a dog and creates a Doggie Trust. Actually, Fido is the name of my cat. Sadly, Ruritanian Law (which is where I am domiciled for tax reasons) has a notion of Doggie Trusts but not of Kitty Trusts. My executor has to get a judgment from the court that Fido the cat should be treated as a dog under Ruritanian Trust Law. 

no gold rings that are also silver rings,

we don't know that. There may be some higher dimensional object which is a gold ring at some times and a silver ring at others. Equally, they may be deemed to be one or the other for some legal or other purpose.  

and so on: that's what makes dogs, cats, silver, and gold each a kind.

Only according to defeasible protocols.  

Therefore, if the members of a language community encounter a dog that's also a cat (or, more realistically, a creature like the duck-billed platypus), they cannot just enrich the set of category terms but must instead redesign a part of the taxonomy.

Nope. They just need to say that there is an exception to the rule. They don't have to have a whole bunch of new rules.  

Pace the causal theorists of reference, 'water' did not always refer to H20 

It never does save in a specific protocol bound discourse. I don't drink H2O. I drink an impure liquid containing some salts and electrolytes.  

Notice now that a lexical taxonomy of some sort must be in place before description of the world can begin.

This simply isn't true. You may stipulate that this is how discourse should proceed- i.e. lay down a bunch of protocols- but I may stipulate that you eat dog turds.  

Shared taxonomic categories, at least in an area under discussion, are prerequisite to unproblematic communication,

Nope. Unproblematic communication is utilitarian communication. If the thing aint useful to us we should tell it to fuck off. One way to do this is to say 'well, I agree that you eat dog turds but I think you have shit for brains.'  

including the communication required for the evaluation of truth claims.

Tell me I'm smart, cute and that you owe me a hundred bucks which you proceed to hand over to me and I will have no problem evaluating your claims as Gospel Truth. Tell me I'm fat and ugly and that I owe you money and I'll call you a lying son of a bitch.  

If different speech communities have taxonomies that differ in some local area, then members of one of them can (and occasionally will) make statements that, though fully meaningful within that speech community, cannot in principle be articulated by members of the other.

What principle would that be? One which devours dog turds?  

To bridge the gap between communities would require adding to one lexicon a kind-term that overlaps, shares a referent, with one that is already in place. It is that situation which the no-overlap principle precludes.

Because it eats dog turds. 

Incommensurability thus becomes a sort of untranslatability, localized to one or another area in which two lexical taxonomies differ.

But, where there is utility there will be commensurability if endowment and preference diversity meets a Goldilocks condition and communication is not too costly. Local arbitrage will get us to global  commensurability- if it is useful to do so.  

The differences which produce it are not any old differences, but ones that violate either the no-overlap condition, the kind-label condition, or else a restriction on hierarchical relations that I cannot spell out here.

Or any other shit you pull out of your arse. The fact is, if it is useful to communicate then communication will be useful and good enough for any specific purpose regardless of 'principles' and 'conditions' and 'restrictions on hierarchical relations'. The reverse is not the case. You can have all sorts of rules without anything useful being communicated. Epistemology is not informative. The 'philosophy of Science' is nonsense.  

Violations of those sorts do not bar intercommunity understanding. Members of one community can acquire the taxonomy employed by members of another,

or they can just point at things 

as the historian does in learning to understand old texts.

the dude may postulate a taxonomy so as to claim that he has understood an old text, but he may be completely wrong.  

But the process which permits understanding produces bilinguals, not translators,

Nonsense! Guys working on ancient cuneiform or whatever did not become bilingual though some did become translators. There are plenty of Professors of Tamil who can't speak Tamil but who can translate the Sillapadikaram. Equally, there were Japanese Professors of English who were experts on Beowulf but who could not converse in idiomatic English.  

and bilingualism has a cost, which will be particularly important to what follows. The bilingual must always remember within which community discourse is occurring.

That really isn't a very high cost. I don't find it difficult at all to switch to Hindi when I'm in Delhi or Tamil when in Chennai or Cockney English when I'm down the boozer.  

The use of one taxonomy to make statements to someone who uses the other places communication at risk. Let me formulate these points in one more way, and then make a last remark about them. Given a lexical taxonomy, or what I'll mostly now call simply a lexicon, there are all sorts of different statements that can be made, and all sorts of theories that can be developed. Standard techniques will lead to some of these being accepted as true, others rejected as false. But there are also statements which could be made, theories which could be developed, within some other taxonomy but which cannot be made with this one and vice versa. The first volume of Lyons' Semantics (1977, pp. 237-8) contains a wonderfully simple example, which some of you will know: the impossibility of translating the English statement, "the cat sat on the mat", into French, because of the incommensurability between the French and English taxonomies for floor coverings.

This simply isn't true. For any given type of commercially available mat the cat may sit on, a French term exists. It may be ponderous but a Frenchman in that line of business would be able to specify it well enough. 

In each particular case for which the English statement is true, one can find a co-referential French statement, some using 'tapis', others 'paillasson,' still others 'carpette,' and so on. But there is no single French statement which refers to all and only the situations in which the English statement is true. In that sense, the English statement cannot be made in French.

Only in so far as it can't be made in English either. When I say 'the cat sat on the mat', nothing you can say refers to all and only the situations in which my English statement is true. Indeed, this applies equally to me when I try to say exactly what I said in the last sentence. 

In a similar vein, I've elsewhere pointed out (Kuhn 1987, p. 8) that the content of the Copernican statement, "planets travel around the sun", cannot be expressed in a statement that invokes the celestial taxonomy of the Ptolemaic statement, "planets travel around the earth". 

But that's exactly what it does. Copernicus was right. Ptolemy was wrong.  

The difference between the two statements is not simply one of fact.

That's all it is. That's why we know those dudes names.  

The term 'planet' appears as a kind term in both, and the two kinds overlap in membership without either's containing all the celestial bodies contained in the other.

But the term 'planet' is a kind term for 'you eat dog shit'. An unkind term is ' fucking dog shit eating cunt.'  

All of which is to say that there are episodes in scientific development which involve fundamental change in some taxonomic categories and which therefore confront later observers with problems like those the ethnologist encounters when trying to break into another culture.

Fuck ethnologists. They have shit for brains. Science is useful. Philosophy isn't. Structural Causal Models matter because they may enable us to tinker with parameters to improve outcomes. There is no road from Structure save to devouring dog turds under the pretense of doing Fido-sophy. 

What happens if you take Kuhn's ideas seriously? Consider the following essay on Thomas Kuhn and the January 6 Hearings- 'Which reality is true reality' by Steven Gimbel and Gwydion Suilebhan in 3Quarks

As the January 6th hearings continue and Americans watch new, seemingly undeniable video evidence of insurrection and quibble about whether one could reach the steering wheel of the Presidential SUV from the back seat, the ideas of Thomas Kuhn, the philosopher and historian of science who coined the phrase “paradigm shift” to explain scientific revolutions remain prescient as ever, even as we approach his 100th birthday.

This is silly. There is video evidence of me taking of all my clothes and peeing in the punch bowl at the office party. HR interprets it in one way- I was drunk and committed all sorts of offenses and thus can be fired for cause. The truth is quite different. I was merely implementing best practice under relevant sections of the Corporate Health and Safety Code.

'Insurrection' implies intention. But intention is not something objective. It is not a physical datum. It is subjective. A Jury may apply a 'reasonable man' test to impute intention but equally they may give the defendant the benefit of doubt. In my case, I can point to my long history of interpreting Company policy as requiring me to get naked and pee all over the place. This does not imply habitual drunkenness or an intention to break my contract of employment or justify constructive dismissal. On the contrary, it suggests that I am qualified for a seat on the Board due to I iz bleck.  


According to Kuhn in his most famous work The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, scientists generally think and work in a state of what he called normal science.

As opposed to weird science which is what happens when you create a beautiful, sexy, and magical girl friend for yourself. Given the choice, scientists would prefer this to 'normal science'.  

Under normal scientific conditions, all research occurs within a paradigm.

But nobody can specify what that paradigm is. It has a 'no overlap principle' known only to God. 

Paradigms, he explained, do four interrelated things.

In the sense that my getting naked and peeing in the punch bowl does great things for the Company's bottom line.  


First, they define the terms that describe the universe, like atom or force.

These are 'Tarskian primitives'. They are undefined because otherwise you get an infinite regress of defining the elements in the definition. 

Second, they determine what counts as legitimate questions. (“What is the mass of the electron?” might be fair, for example, but not “Do electrons have polka-dots?”)

Do quarks have flavors?  Apparently. Electrons aren't made of quarks. Maybe they will turn out to be made of something else which could be described as polka dots. 

Third, they set limits on which tools you can use to answer those questions. (Reading a voltmeter is perfectly acceptable, but reading tea leaves is out.)

But some 'oracle' may be necessary to get from a deterministic process to a nondeterministic outcome. 

And fourth, they determine what counts as an acceptable answer to those questions. (Just to pick one: you don’t get to use negative lengths.)

But imaginary numbers or even negative probabilities are okay.  

Normal science is puzzle solving. The paradigm frames riddles and gives us the rules we need to follow in order to solve them.

This is applied science or engineering. Fundamental research is beyond paradigms.  

If you solve an approved riddle, you get to publish your answer, becoming a member of the community of normal scientists. The paradigm gives members of the scientific community their union cards, essentially, so the last thing they want to do is to question the rules of that paradigm.

But the people at the top who are doing the most interesting stuff break those rules all the time. School boys need to learn to observe grammatical paradigms in their essays to get into Collidge. But the great writers they will study there break those paradigms all the time.  

Sure, there might be other paradigms, but when normal scientific conditions prevail, we completely understand the world through the current paradigm. As a result, people who come from other paradigms sound like they’re speaking in gibberish.

Nonsense! We understand Glaswegian English or Trinidad English or American English perfectly well. Paradigms don't matter. Mummy understands baby even though baby doesn't have a clue about grammar.  

They don’t seem rational, because the paradigm you’re coming from defines what’s rational and what isn’t. It’s almost as if they live in a different universe.

The truth is, we can do business well enough with people from China or other countries which have a very different type of language. Paradigms don't matter.  


And here’s what’s really tricky: you can’t have any good reason to switch from one paradigm to another because good reason itself is determined by the paradigm you’re coming from.

We don't speak language. Language speaks us. But language was created by men! Men have dicks! Dicks cause Rape! Language is orally raping us! Help!  


So, why are some paradigms dominant and others marginalized? Kuhn’s answer is political, not rational.

Because he wasn't rational at all. Still back then politics had turned to shit and everybody on the faculty had either dropped acid or gone quietly mad in some other way. 

A paradigm becomes dominant because it gives the established scientists who come from it the power and resources to control the education, grants, jobs, and awards that new scientists want. Paradigms are self-policing, self-reinforcing social-political entities.

But men with dicks created paradigms. Dicks cause rape! Paradigms are skull-fucking us! Help! 


Somehow, though, there are revolutionary times when one paradigm replaces another.

By jamming its dick down our throat. Help! 

Paradigm shifts, as Kuhn called them, happen only rarely because they require a large group of scientists to abandon a well-established structure and give up the benefits it offers to embrace an upstart way of seeing the world.

So as to skull fuck the rest of us. Help! 

A scientist changing paradigms, Kuhn argued, was essentially a religious conversion.

And a religious conversion was essentially getting skull fucked. Help! 


What makes a scientist convert from the scientific “religion” in which they were educated to another?

Skull-fucking.  

Kuhn’s answer: anomalies. Whenever you ask a well-formed question and use the methods prescribed by your paradigm, then get an inappropriate answer, you have an anomaly.

The reason 'Scientific Method' died was because we asked the question as to what new scientific discovery it had motivated. The answer was 'none at all.' Thus the thing was shit.  

If the anomaly is big enough, or if you suddenly discover a lot of them, it can induce a state of crisis.

Once you see that a University Department is utterly shit no 'state of crisis' is induced. You get stupid kids to enroll in that shite and use the fees they pay to cross-subsidize useful stuff.  

If it happens to enough scientists, they start questioning the dominant paradigm… and some start looking at new ones.

Not if they no longer get paid or if they discover that the grad students they are now saddled with can't tie their own shoe-laces or haven't been fully toilet trained. There is a wide difference between supervising academic research and wiping the bums of drooling idiots. The latter activity is better paid.  


For a scientific revolution to occur, a critical mass of scientists has to abandon the current paradigm and convert to a new one.

No. It is sufficient for one guy to do stuff which generates cool new tech or stuff which saves money, for that revolution to take off. Astrology didn't disappear when Astronomy took off and began helping the merchant marine to make lots more money.  

When that happens, they build a new political power structure. They establish a new regime with new truths, new rules, new power relationships, and new people in charge.

Nonsense! To build a new political power structure you need to beat or kill people. Science can generate more money but that money may be used to buy off the existing political structure.  

Scientific revolutions, Kuhn argued, are very much like political revolutions

This simply wasn't and isn't true. 

… which brings us to the insurrection of January 6th.

Senator Daniel Patrick Moynihan famously said that you’re entitled to your own opinions, but not your own facts.

He was wrong. You are entitled to your own facts in the same way you are entitled to your own farts. When a Jury makes a determination of facts it is entitled to reach any conclusion provided certain procedural rules are followed. Thus, if the foreman sucks off other members of the Jury so as to get them to change their verdict, then an offense has been committed. 

We can have different values or commit to different policy proposals in order to realize our values, but we have to share a common foundation of facts.

No we don't. Determinations of fact may be required in certain 'buck stopped' judicial or administrative procedures. But these are exceptional circumstances. In general, we have a Hohfeldian immunity with respect to what 'facts' we choose to uphold.  

A Kuhnian would beg to differ, however, because people who come from different paradigms can, and do, believe in different realities.

But this is also the case if they are self-identical and have the same 'paradigm'. I am welcome to believe in an all-seeing God when my life is in danger while pretending God does not exist while having a crafty wank.  

For decades now, in fact, that Kuhnian notion has inspired a growing number of American conservatives to build a new political paradigm that’s radically different from our current democratic structure.

These cunts have a bizarre view of America's 'current democratic structure'.  

For decades, Democrats and Republicans agreed on the norms and procedures that grounded our political reality: every eligible citizen should be allowed to vote; race, gender, and religious belief shouldn’t make anyone ineligible to vote (although it did take different amounts of time to reach consensus about who was eligible); all votes should be counted; and whoever gets the most votes wins the election, except in the case of Presidential elections, which are governed by the more complex rules of the Electoral College. These rules were all part of the political paradigm that Americans once widely accepted.

No. There was plenty of gerrymandering and voter suppression in both Red and Blue states. The reality diverged sharply from the rhetoric.  


But things changed. In 1980, Paul Weyrich, founder of the Moral Majority, said “I don’t want everyone to vote…our leverage in the elections quite candidly goes up as the voting populace goes down.”

Carter, on taking office, had proposed electoral reforms to increase voter participation. The Left blames Reagan for mobilizing Republican opposition to this but the facts speak for themselves. Democratic machine politicians were even more adamant because they feared voter insurrection against rent-seeking political establishments.  

His declaration started a new wave of voter suppression efforts intended to make sure not everyone would get to vote and to challenge which votes would be counted. In 2000, there was ambiguity about whether Al Gore received more votes in Florida than George W. Bush. The Brooks Brothers revolution showed that if Republicans raised enough of a fuss, Democrats would protect the paradigm rather than their electoral victory. They were willing to sacrifice the power that would come with electoral victory to protect the structural stability of the entire election process.

Al Gore put up a fight. Some Democrats may not have been too keen on him for reasons that would soon become apparent. However, in the ultimate analysis, it was the Supreme Court which determined the outcome. Scalia is considered to have prevailed in this matter. It is difficult to see what more Gore could have done.  



Over time, conservatives began to establish an alternative paradigm, setting themselves apart from what an unnamed Bush aide called “the reality-based community” of people who believe that political solutions derive from a “judicious study of discernible reality.”

I think Carter was considered a 'process' President who didn't have a broader ideological vision and this was the reason he failed as a politician. Bush Snr. too was considered a detail oriented guy. Dubya was very much a 'big picture' president and did get a second term. 

The aide defined the new conservative paradigm both brazenly and clearly: “That’s not the way the world really works any more… [W]e create our own reality.”

The fact is White Americans didn't like the demographic reality of their country which they didn't feel they had created at all. It had snuck up on them probably because this is what suited Coastal elites. 

In 2017, Trump advisor Kellyanne Conway embraced the new paradigm by referring to the administration’s falsehoods as “alternative facts.” For adherents to that new paradigm, those alternative facts are absolutely real.

What was 'absolutely real' was demographic change. You didn't have to be a genius to figure out what Trump was actually saying.  

The new paradigm explains why it’s so much more difficult to have political conversations across party lines than it once was.

But Biden is finding it equally difficult to have political conversations with Manchin and Sinema who voted against his Voting Rights bill.  

Those of us who are members of the “reality-based community” rely on double-blind testing and statistics to determine whether certain facts, like the efficacy of masks and COVID vaccines, are rational to believe.

Not really. We'd be dead if we waited that long to plump for one option or another. Mimetic effects drive behavior. I vividly recall my own decision to wear a mask. My reasoning was that East Asians developed a mask wearing culture and this virus came from there. It would be sensible to imitate them because they have the relevant experience.'  

Those who are members of the “alternative facts” paradigm have removed the scientific method from that role, replacing it with declarations made by powerful political and media voices. Between those two paradigms, we no longer agree on which facts constitute reality.

This is not a fact. It is some shite Thomas Kuhn- who wasn't a scientist- pulled out of his ass.  


The “alternative fact” that widespread voter fraud influenced the outcome of the 2020 election—the big lie told by the Trump administration—was meant to achieve two things.

No. It was meant to achieve one thing- viz. help Trump retain power and influence.  

First, it signaled the existence of a new paradigm that voters could choose to inhabit.

Coz what keeps Trump awake at nights is stuff to do with paradigms- thinks nobody at all.  

Second, by creating the appearance of electoral anomalies, it induced a state of crisis.

No it didn't. At the time most people thought Trump had lost his marbles. Then we realized that Trump's aim was to keep control of the Republican party by creating a tool to harass those who wanted to turn the page on him thus leaving him more open to criminal or other proceedings.  

The Eastman memos

Eastman has some crazy theories- e.g Kamala Harris is not a 'naturally born' citizen. Apparently this is what brought him to the attention of Trump's kooky crew. Pence got proper advise from Gregory Jacob and rejected Eastman's urgings.

outlining the so-called “Green Bay Sweep” made the Republican election strategy crystal clear. They intended to undermine the credibility of the 2020 election results by fabricating anomalies: fake voting irregularities.

Navarro was so stupid that he published a book incriminating himself. He will go to prison while Trump pushes all blame onto him and Bannon. What he should have done is say 'I hate the Koch brothers. In my opinion what happened was such and such. My job was to discover if there had been any electoral fraud. I believed there had been for such and such reason. But the Koch brothers prevented Pence from acting in a proper manner. That is my opinion'. This is freedom of expression. There is no 'executive privilege' to subvert the constitution.  


By loudly claiming voter fraud, conservatives

Pence is plenty conservative. Trump was once a member of the Democratic party.  

tried to create a big enough crisis to justify ignoring ballots and relying on the partisan whim of statehouses to determine the outcome of the election. If they had succeeded, the “alternative facts” paradigm would have become dominant,

No. Eastman's crazy theory about the Veep's super powers would have been endorsed by the Bench. The law would have changed. Facts would not.  

creating a new political system, with new rules and power structures. That Kuhnian revolution, which many conservatives referred to as “1776,” is precisely what they’ve been trying to bring about for more than four decades.

So, Nixon was on the side of the angels. Things only turned to shit when Reagan was elected. 

Many Republicans no longer accept the paradigm in which everyone gets to vote, all votes are counted, and the candidate with the most votes wins. Most Democrats still do.

I suspect that Machnin and Sinema have plenty of secret support. That's why Biden can't strong-arm them.  

We are living in a state of crisis, even though the supposed anomalies aren’t real. Through these hearings, as a nation, we are deciding which reality we will live in, which “truths” will be facts, and which rules and values will govern our lives.

No. These hearings are likely to be counterproductive. Rather than burying Trump, they keep his legend alive. As the economy worsens, people may forget his response to Covid and choose to remember the economic prosperity which preceded pandemic. The Dems understand that if they come across as too shrill and continue to pretend that Trump was Hitler and January 6 was a putsch, they will appear to disconnected from the harsh reality of rising inflation and a deteriorating geopolitical position.  


Saturday, 9 July 2022

Dorje Brody & Fake news

Is information informative? The answer depends on eligibility or admissibility. Some new information may cause the collapse of what we thought was our information processing module. I remember being blown away by a Satyajit Ray film that was being screened on TV. Then I realized I wasn't looking at the TV. I was looking out of the window. Also, I was in Calcutta. Not an interesting part of Calcutta. I was in a suburb where everybody had dedicated themselves to being as boring as possible. 

 The reason I mention this is because, further to my post titled 'Chomsky & Informativity', I want to look, today, at Prof. Dorje C Brody's recent paper- 'Noise, Fake News & Tenacious Bayesians'. 

Briefly, my position is that it is foolish to be Bayesian unless that is what you are paid to be. A Principal would never be Bayesian. Because of 'uncorrelated asymmetries', their 'theory and praxis' (matam & vigyan) would be robust to changes in the information set. This is because 'doctrine' is not informative. Some aspects of 'science' or 'praxis' may be in the sense that parameters may change for a specific purpose but there is no 'Belief Revision' properly speaking. There is a change in how the prevailing Structural Causal Mechanism is used but this is a pragmatic accommodation which is temporary. On the other hand, if there is extra utility then there are mechanisms by which, at the margin, uncorrelated asymmetries change and so the nature of the population changes. But that's not for a mathematical reason- though there may be a Polya process- it is for an economic or Tardean mimetic reason.

Dorje writes in the Conversation- 

Understanding the human mind and behaviour lies at the core of the discipline of psychology.

No. Getting paid to talk bollocks to stupid students lies at the core of 'academic' disciplines.  

But to characterise how people’s behaviour changes over time, I believe psychology alone is insufficient – and that additional mathematical ideas need to be brought forward.

Economic ideas. These would only have a mathematical expression at the Pareto frontier where 'optimality' can yield adjoint functors or other such mathematical beasties. Sadly, there is an economic reason (regret minimization) why we stay away from the Pareto frontier and have ontological dysphoric goods and services. I suppose, one could also invoke the 'free energy principle' and say people want to minimize 'surprise' by inhabiting a pawky, fatalistic, Lebenswelt.


My new model, published in Frontiers in Psychology, is inspired by the work of the 19th-century American mathematician, Norbert Wiener.

He was twentieth century. Wiener and his son helped Indian and Chinese mathematicians like Kosambi and, the genius, Chern.  

At its heart is how we change our perceptions over time when tasked with making a choice from a set of alternatives.

Perceptions don't matter. Mimetics does matter. Uncorrelated asymmetries do matter. Most importantly, the correct econ theory says choose such that the 'conatus' of choice making is conserved or expanded in scope. In other words, your perception of the outcome of the choice is less important than your continuing to have the power to choose. If Biden chooses to suck off Putin, he won't get the chance to do so. He will be sedated by his Doctors and the Veep will take over. 

Such changes are often generated by limited information,

Perception is a gestalt with non informative inputs. It is relatively independent of information geometry save where 'reinforced' for a specific purpose  

which we analyse before making decisions that determine our behavioural patterns.

Unless no great loss results by omitting to do so.  But, by Witsenhausen's counter-example, there is a mathematical reason for resisting Dorje's argument because decision theory is often concerned with decentralized stochastic control problems.

To understand these patterns, we need the mathematics of information processing.

But information is not processed only for representational purposes. There are strategic and other economic or mimetic considerations. The fact is, for many purposes, what is processable as 'information' is merely a proxy for informativity.  

Here, the state of a person’s mind is represented by the likelihood it assigns to different alternatives

Fuck off! The thing is too cognitively costly. Also, there is a strong economic or evolutionary reason not to do anything so fucking stupid.  

– which product to buy, which school to send your child to, which candidate to vote for in an election and so on.

But these will be swamped by mimetic effects or, if Uncertainty increases, regret minimizing considerations. 

Understanding rational mind

As we gather partial information, we become less uncertain

No. Knightian uncertainty increases. On the other hand 'information gathering' could be said to affect 'felicity' associated with a meta-choice function- i.e. gathering partial information can increase felicity from 'choosing to choose'.  

– for example, by reading customer reviews we become more certain about which product to buy.

No. We gain more felicity from having to plump for one option rather than another. Certainty hasn't increased but 'regret minimization' has fallen because we can say 'I don't regret pulling the trigger on this coz, after all, I did all that was humanly possible to get the decision right. That's all you need for ataraxy- i.e. serenity. You can live with your decisions coz you did the due diligence. The rest is up to God.  

This mental updating is expressed in a mathematical formula worked out by the 18th-century English scholar, Thomas Bayes.

Who wanted to disprove Hume's 'Indian Prince' argument. But, 'inferential statistics', or 'inverse probability'- i.e. notions of likelihood can have no such power because the thing is multiply realizable. Only a better Structural Causal Model which allows immediate tinkering with parameters to alter outcomes will suffice. 

It essentially captures how a rational mind makes decisions by assessing various, uncertain alternatives.

Fuck off. Nothing essentially captures shite which can't exist.  Minds exist because of uncorrelated asymmetries. They are 'bourgeois strategies' of an evolutionarily stable type. 


The equation shows the flow of information over time, t.

It is information of a representational type but there are other sorts of informtion which are more important for decision theory.  

X is a random variable representing different probabilities corresponding to different alternatives.

This is the problem with the Bayesian approach. Where do the probabilities come from? The alternatives don't yet exist. What 'frequentism' can capture them? The thing would be a prediction of a Structural Causal Mechanism. In Quantum physics we are dealing with identical particles. But things in the social sphere have uncorrelated asymmetries only some of which are apparent.   

If we assume that the information is revealed at a constant rate σ,

We are confining ourselves to the representational not the qualitative. By the time the picture is completed it will be too late to take action. There is a Kafka toxin type problem here. It is better to 'manage the news'. This does mean that fake news prevails with some adjustment at the margin. Our victorious army is never defeated. It mounts successful reconnaissance missions followed by combined operations of a logistical type designed to shorten lines of communication and supply.  

and that the noise that obscures the information is B ((described by a theory called Brownian motion, which is random), then the equation can give us the information flow. 

If the thing is representational, sure. But a lot of information flows are about 'observables' which change the 'unobservables' which are what we are really interested in. 'Noise', then, is an observable which is not 'decisive' for some reason or another. But such noise may not necessarily 'cancel out'. Instead what is noise today is signal with respect to a future state of the world.  


When combining this concept with the mathematics of information (specifically signal processing), dating back to the 1940s,

stuff about how to improve radio reception- which is representational. But most information is no such thing.  

it can help us understand the behaviour of people, or society, guided by how information is processed over time.

There is a story of a British Army officer who found his way out of the thick Burmese jungle using a map of the London Underground. Dorje is a very smart guy. He may indeed gain an understanding from the mathematical equivalent of something wholly independent or irrelevant.  

It is only recently that my colleagues and I realised how useful this approach can be.

Brainy peeps are useful. Dorje is a first class mathematician. He is bound to be doing useful things in purely mathematical terms.  

So far, we have successfully applied it to model the behaviour of financial markets (market participants respond to new information, which leads to changes in stock prices),

But what markets do is generate information. You may say that they aggregate preferences of various types. You may say that the preferences of arbitrageurs are information sensitive. But arbitrageurs aren't the only type of agent. Indeed, they only exist because any coordination game can have an associated discoordination game by reason of 'hedging' and 'income effects'. 

and the behaviour of green plants (a flower processes information about the location of the sun and turns its head towards it).

So, hedge fund managers have the same IQ as a sunflower. Good to know.  

I have also shown it can be used to model the dynamics of opinion poll statistics associated with an election or a referendum, and drive a formula that gives the actual probability of a given candidate winning a future election, based on today’s poll statistics and how information will be released in the future.

The favorite to win is caught on camera sucking off his rival in exchange for a Big Mac and fries. How that information is released may indeed affect the outcome of the election.  I'm not saying anything like that happened to me when I ran for the post of President of the Socioproctologists Association. Its the sort of thing which could happen to anyone who runs for high office. 

In this new “information-based” approach, the behaviour of a person – or group of people – over time is deduced by modelling the flow of information.

In other words, making assumptions. But it is the assumptions which are doing the heavy lifting. The maths is just window dressing.  

So, for example, it is possible to ask what will happen to an election result (the likelihood of a percentage swing) if there is “fake news” of a given magnitude and frequency in circulation.

What sort of 'fake news'? Kennedy's 'missile gap'? No such gap existed but the intuition was correct that nuclear doctrine had to change. The Cuban crisis made this clear.  There was 'fake news' about Trump being a Nazi or Biden being totes senile- but there was a grain of truth as well. Real news would be 'the various candidates are boring shitheads who will enrich the same bunch of plutocrats while lying their heads off'. Fake news is that 'our man has a bit of backbone. Their guy sucks off homeless dudes.' But one candidate may actually behave better in a crisis. 


But perhaps most unexpected are the deep insights we can glean into the human decision-making process. We now understand, for instance, that one of the key traits of the Bayes updating is that every alternative, whether it is the right one or not, can strongly influence the way we behave.

This is the Monty Hall problem. Menus are informative. That's why Arrow Debreu is a fantasy. If we had information about all possible futures  markets, we would also know which Scientific Research Programs will succeed and which countries and companies will thrive and which will collapse. 


If we do not have a preconceived idea, we are attracted to all of these alternatives irrespective of their merits and will not choose one for a long time without further information.

Not if uncorrelated asymmetries exist. I know I'm old and stupid. I follow a bourgeois strategy in voting for a Party which wants to help the old and stupid because there are a lot of us.  

This is where the uncertainty is greatest, and a rational mind will wish to reduce the uncertainty so that a choice can be made.

My rational mind wishes to reduce the price of cake. Sadly, it has no such power.  Scratch that. Happily, it has no such power coz otherwise I'd be dead of diabetes. 

But if someone has a very strong conviction on one of the alternatives, then whatever the information says, their position will hardly change for a long time –it is a pleasant state of high certainty.

No. It is a pleasant state of self-perceived moral integrity or sticking to your guns.  Sadly, one may later find one was merely obstinate and ignorant and incapable of proper reasoning.


Such behaviour is linked to the notion of “confirmation bias”

or a bigoted rejection of dis-confirmation. The guys who stormed Capitol Hill didn't want Biden confirmed as President, the didn't want Congress to certify the election result, because they insisted that Trump had actually won. Why? Because POTUS had said so. Can President's lie? Sure- if they belong to the wrong party.  

– interpreting information as confirming your views even when it actually contradicts them. This is seen in psychology as contrary to the Bayes logic, representing irrational behaviour. But we show it is, in fact, a perfectly rational feature compatible with the Bayes logic – a rational mind simply wants high certainty.

We may want an angel to descend and to state in a voice of thunder that it wasn't us wot farted. Who smelled it, dealt it.  

Kavka's toxin is a case where managing our own beliefs alters outcomes. This means it is rational to 'manage the news'. But the news is not about certainty. It points to possible worlds of a previously unimagined kind. Maybe the Capitol Hill rioters could have intimidated Congress. Suppose Biden decided not to risk a Civil War. What if another election had been held? Maybe Trump would have won. Suddenly we would view those lunatics as sensible people- perhaps even as patriotic people. If Biden and Pence and Pelosi and so forth had turned out to be poltroons, only Trump could be trusted in the White House. But Biden was and is no coward. People of the 'silent generation' seldom are. 

The approach can even describe the behaviour of a pathological liar. Can mathematics distinguish lying from a genuine misunderstanding?

Apparently schizophrenic people are better at spotting liars. They ignore what is said and concentrate on other non-verbal cues. Another giveaway is length of response. Liars say less- or less that is relevant. Truth tellers can and do expand on their statement.  

It appears that the answer is “yes”, at least with a high level of confidence.

This is reasonable. Computer programs are mathematical and are in fact used to spot faked results in various fields.  But the heuristic on which they are based aren't really mathematical. They are economic. If you are lying or faking results, you will keep relevant information short and introduce more randomness than is warranted. 


If a person genuinely thinks an alternative that is obviously true is highly unlikely – meaning they are misunderstanding – then in an environment in which partial information about the truth is gradually revealed, their perception will slowly shift towards the truth, albeit fluctuating over time.

Bayes was a clergyman. He had a vested interest in getting people to believe in miracles. The odd thing is that I've gotten older and sadder I am much more prepared to believe that miracles do exist- but only for good people who are naturally constituted to be, and who deserve to be, happy.  

Even if they have a strong belief in a false alternative, their view will very slowly converge from this false alternative to the true one.

That convergence will be quick because of mimetic effects and 'tipping points'. Cellular automata theory is the correct way to simulate this. 

However, if a person knows the truth but refuses to accept it – is a liar –

No. The person is 'ontologically dysphoric'- i.e. not at home in this world. I may know I am biologically male and human but I feel I am in the wrong body. I should be a female penguin.  Also, I didn't fart just now. I suffer from a rare condition, brought on by stress I suffered when I was with the SAS, which makes it medically impossible for me to fart. Prince Andrew can't sweat. I can't fart. Why will no one believe me? Is it because I am living in the wrong universe? 

then according to the model, their behaviour is radically different: they will rapidly choose one of the false alternatives and confidently assert this to be the truth.

This is a heuristic. If you are arguing against option X, you clutch at any Y which militates against X. But that is 'Social Choice'. It is economics, not mathematics. 

Any heuristic can be given a mathematical expression but, why bother? Our brains are hardwired for this sort of thing. The time class of the mathematical solution may be exponential. We have an intuition of the direction of the focal solution. 

How are actual social choice problems solved? The answer is 'transferable utility'- you pay off some, threaten others and bore the rest into submission.  

(In fact, they may almost believe in this false alternative that has been chosen randomly.)

It is a fact that invisible penguins have been discovered in Argentina. The CIA covered it up. I didn't fart. An invisible penguin did the dirty deed. Tell you what, I'll give you this valuable bottle of single malt whiskey if you admit that the CIA does indeed get up to all sorts of shenanigans. No. This is genuine single malt whiskey. I didn't just fill up the bottle with my own pee but you are right in your guess that I had asparagus for lunch. However did you come to know?  

Then, as the truth is gradually revealed and this position becomes untenable, very quickly and assertively they will pick another false alternative.

Okay, okay. Invisible penguins were wiped out during the Falklands Campaign. But this is an old house. There can be spontaneous methane emission from the floor boards. Furthermore, such emissions can indeed cause fart like noises. Look, how about I go to the toilet and retrieve some nice chocolate cake I stored there which you are welcome to gobble up all by yourself?  

Hence a rational (in the sense of someone following the Bayes logic) liar will behave in a rather erratic manner, which can ultimately help us spot them.

The problem here is that the statements of a guy strongly committed to a cause may be very erratic indeed. Churchill hated Stalin. But, once he had to ally with him, Churchill took many steps to ensure that Stalin had confidence in him. Yet, once out of office, Churchill played an important role in creating a united front against Stalinist aggression. This was erratic certainly. But it was courageous and on the side of Truth, Justice and the Anglo-American Way (Churchill's mum was American).  

But they will have such a strong conviction that they can be convincing to those who have limited knowledge of the truth.

Conviction that your cause will prevail is not the same thing as being an inveterate liar.  

For those who have known a consistent liar, this behaviour might seem familiar.

Consistent liars alter their behavior depending on the truth testing protocols they are subject to. If these protocols are strict, the way to go is to appear deeply stupid but fundamentally on the right side. If they are lax, appear brilliant but impatient of lesser minds. This means you can talk out the clock in a manner which is deliberately irrational to signal your contempt of your inquisitors. Say things like 'but, according to your own stupid ideology, invisible penguins have to exist! Indeed, it is a corollary of the abc theorem which Mochizuki has claimed to prove! I mean, if you are too stupid to even understand Mochizuki how the fuck- according to the categorical theoretical representation of your shitty ideology- can you even begin to smell farts let alone point the finger at who tooted? Incidentally, my pal- the late Steven Hawkins- was working on this problem when he sadly passed away.'  

Of course, without the access to someone’s mind, one can never be 100% sure. But mathematical models show that for such behaviour to arise from a genuine misunderstanding is statistically very unlikely.

So maths can show your hunch was right- provided you do the maths. But fart smelling has the same property. I was able to prove the existence of invisible penguins by just such means. Will I get a Nobel Prize for this? Of course not! I iz bleck and didn't go to no posh Skool or Collidge. 

This information-based approach is highly effective in predicting the statistics of people’s future behaviour in response to the unravelling of information – or disinformation, for that matter. It can provide us with a tool to analyse and counter, in particular, the negative ramifications of disinformation.

But a more effective method is to say 'you eat dog turds. That's why your brains have turned to shit'. Also you can fart vigorously when approached by any virtue signaling cunt wot has 'statistical information'.  

Turning to Dorje's paper, we find this 

Decision making arises when one is not 100% certain about the “right” choice, due to insufficient information.

This is false. Decision making arises when you are empowered and inventivized to make a decision. It may be protocol bound. If so, there may be a 'guillotine' such that the decision has to be made on available, admissible, evidence. But it would be regret minimizing to 'hedge' under such circumstances. You may decide to apply a smaller penalty or give a smaller reward till more facts are available.  

The current knowledge relevant to decision making then reflects the prior uncertainty.

Not if decision making is protocol bound. Even if it isn't, it will have a 'discovery' component as well as an 'optimizing' component.  

If additional partial information about the quantity of interest arrives, then this prior is updated to a posterior uncertainty. To see how this transformation works it suffices to consider a simple example of a binary decision—a decision between two alternatives labeled by 0 and 1—under uncertainty. Suppose that we let X be the random variable representing a binary decision so that X takes the value 0 with probability p and X equals 1 with probability 1 − p, where the probabilities reflect the degree of uncertainty.

But the degree of uncertainty is itself uncertain unless we know there is a population of a certain sort. One may say there are subjective probabilities and that is what Bayesian analysis is concerned with. But why should there be subjective probabilities? There may be betting markets where that sort of thing has already been aggregated. In other words, 'priors' are impredicative. To assume they are sets or proper classes is to beg the question. Ex poste, we may impute a mathematical function but for sufficiently important decisions, this could only be done at 'the end of time'. In other words, this is a non-informative theory. It is mere 'doctrine' or hand waving or window dressing. 

In the context of an electoral competition, one can think of a two-candidate scenario whereby X = 0 corresponds to candidate A and X = 1 corresponds to candidate B. Then the probabilities (p, 1 − p) reflect the a priori view of a given decision maker—a voter for example.

But that prior is impredicative. It has no mathematical description. One may stipulate or impute a description but that is an arbitrary procedure. True if we make all sorts of crazy or lazy assumptions you can get to something canonical or 'natural'. But you are now talking about a world in which language would not exist. Coordination would happen by magic. This is an occassionalist universe and suffers 'modal collapse'- i.e. what is is all anything can be.  

In particular, if p > 0.5, then candidate A is currently preferred over candidate B.

We can't say that. Why? We know that the probability of a horrible candidate getting elected will be exaggerated by our side so as to motivate us to go out and vote. Probabilities are themselves strategic and impredicative- just like preferences. Remember this article was published in a Psychology journal. I'm not saying Dorje- a brilliant mathematician- can't inspire very useful 'apps' but that could be done without any 'doctrinal' window dressing. Maybe growing different algorithms and letting them compete and combine and winnow out costly procedures will get us a better solution even if that solution is a black box and we don't know why it is successful. But stuff like that is already happening anyway because of the profit motive.  

With this setup, the decision maker receives additional noisy information about the “correct” value of X. For example, one might read an article

because of one's preferences 

that conveys the information that voting for candidate A is likely to be the correct decision.

But candidate B reads the same article and steals the clothes of candidate A by appearing to support the correct policy even more strongly.  

The idea then is to translate this information into a numerical value so as to be able to understand and characterize how the view of the decision maker, represented by the probabilities (p, 1 − p), is affected by acquiring further information.

But both 'numerical values' and 'informativity' are impredicative and strategic. They are multiply realizable. What you are setting yourself to do is nothing but an exercise in bigotry of an arbitrary kind. The bad thing about bigotry is it can make you prefer a horrible to a bad alternative even if you started off firmly opposed to the horrible alternative. Prussian Junkers ended up hailing a 'bohemian' Corporal. 

To be fair Dorje's paper is very clearly presented. Students will definitely benefit by reading his work and looking at the relevant literature.