Within a couple of years, that 'decisive struggle' was in fact decided by the Chinese military incursion which India was powerless to resist because Nehru was shit at running things.
Still, the fact remains, in 1990, Pakistan- which was winning its proxy war with the Soviet Union in Afghanistan- had double the Chinese purchasing power parity Income per capita. Even India was slightly ahead of China. The Chinese were liberalizing the economy. It even seemed possible that they would transition to Democracy. Thanks to Reagan, it seemed the Indian subcontinent had- somewhat belatedly- decided the outcome of the Cold War not, it is true within a decade- as Kennedy promised- but more gradually over a thirty year period. No doubt, India and Pakistan's own Socialist experiments had delayed this outcome but Kennedy's vision had been vindicated.
Fast forward another three decades and what do we see? China has more than double India's p.p.p Income per capita. A lot of this has to do with China's population policies but a lot more has to do with the dysfunctional nature of Democracy under the Rule of Law. Edward Lim, of the World Bank, who helped China in the Eighties to turn itself around and then came to India where- despite working with far better quality 'human material' (i.e. he was preaching to the converted and his Indian counterparts were as well, or better, credentialized than he was) the outcome was disappointing.
Lim is frank as to why the World Bank failed in India- 'Activists can become famous and I am sorry to say, financially better off through contributions from international NGOs --·by having a case picked up by the Inspection Panel. I mean, that's a way to become famous in India- that you've got the Bank; you brought the Bank to the dock. To many activists, having the Inspection Panel of the World Bank accept a petition is like hitting the jackpot. Thus, many activists are going to try very hard to hit the jackpot. Thus, during my time, those of us working on India came to live with the reality that in all projects involving any forms of resettlement or environmental issues, we were going to have to defend what we were doing to the Inspection Panel. I don't really mind this, but it does divert resources and attention from other priorities.'
In other words, the 'begging bowl diplomacy' of the Fifties and Sixties had been replaced by 'activists' and NGOs leveraging India's fabulous poverty to enrich themselves by frustrating any and every constructive program. The sum total of this approach was to suggest that nothing must be done till everything is done. This was the message of Amartya Sen's 'idea of Justice'. Here was the bitter kernel of the activist's credo- all activity was evil say that of an activism protesting every sensible action.
It is now apparent that a new Cold War is upon us. China is no longer saying it will double per capita Income next decade. Rather it is preparing for a strategic conflict on a Global scale which, hopefully, will be entirely economic and logistical.
What might a modern Kennedy say about India's role in deciding the outcome of this new Cold War over the next decade? The thing is certainly feasible if India's activists can be curbed. But, they won't be curbed. I foresee an increasing polarization of activism with the Right being paid by the Diaspora and the Left by Western Governments and NGOs. Meanwhile, the Indian Civil Service will return to its bad old ways. The few outside appointees will be given the cold shoulder and rendered ineffective. Politicians will stop pretending Governance matters. Vote Bank politics will return with a vengeance and so the Dynasts will thrive even unto the Seventh Generation.
Fast forward another three decades and what do we see? China has more than double India's p.p.p Income per capita. A lot of this has to do with China's population policies but a lot more has to do with the dysfunctional nature of Democracy under the Rule of Law. Edward Lim, of the World Bank, who helped China in the Eighties to turn itself around and then came to India where- despite working with far better quality 'human material' (i.e. he was preaching to the converted and his Indian counterparts were as well, or better, credentialized than he was) the outcome was disappointing.
Lim is frank as to why the World Bank failed in India- 'Activists can become famous and I am sorry to say, financially better off through contributions from international NGOs --·by having a case picked up by the Inspection Panel. I mean, that's a way to become famous in India- that you've got the Bank; you brought the Bank to the dock. To many activists, having the Inspection Panel of the World Bank accept a petition is like hitting the jackpot. Thus, many activists are going to try very hard to hit the jackpot. Thus, during my time, those of us working on India came to live with the reality that in all projects involving any forms of resettlement or environmental issues, we were going to have to defend what we were doing to the Inspection Panel. I don't really mind this, but it does divert resources and attention from other priorities.'
In other words, the 'begging bowl diplomacy' of the Fifties and Sixties had been replaced by 'activists' and NGOs leveraging India's fabulous poverty to enrich themselves by frustrating any and every constructive program. The sum total of this approach was to suggest that nothing must be done till everything is done. This was the message of Amartya Sen's 'idea of Justice'. Here was the bitter kernel of the activist's credo- all activity was evil say that of an activism protesting every sensible action.
It is now apparent that a new Cold War is upon us. China is no longer saying it will double per capita Income next decade. Rather it is preparing for a strategic conflict on a Global scale which, hopefully, will be entirely economic and logistical.
What might a modern Kennedy say about India's role in deciding the outcome of this new Cold War over the next decade? The thing is certainly feasible if India's activists can be curbed. But, they won't be curbed. I foresee an increasing polarization of activism with the Right being paid by the Diaspora and the Left by Western Governments and NGOs. Meanwhile, the Indian Civil Service will return to its bad old ways. The few outside appointees will be given the cold shoulder and rendered ineffective. Politicians will stop pretending Governance matters. Vote Bank politics will return with a vengeance and so the Dynasts will thrive even unto the Seventh Generation.
4 comments:
Have you read Pax Sinica? If so what’s your take? Just fluff? At any rate, maybe it’s time to spice up your verse with a little MSG—I for one would appreciate Indo Chinese puns mingled with the polyglot buffet, an order of hemistich manchurian, if you will
I haven't read it- indeed, could not find it on Google. Do supply a link, if you read this.
I began writing very beautiful 'tzu' in the style of Li Po at about the same time that Vikram Seth took up the study of Chinese. However, my approach was more original and consisted of transposing the letters 'l' and 'r' wherever they occurred. Sadly, such Chinese people as I recited my poems to proved unconvinced of my genius.
As you may know, I am the Global Messiah of the Anti Masturbation Movement. My book 'Samlee's daughter' explains how I attained this exalted position. On page 259 you will find this sublime couplet of mine which, out of modesty, I have attributed to Chairman Mao-
Wei Wun Ping Pong
Nix Son Ding Dong!
You will find an English translation on the relevant page.
I respect the Chinese literary tradition. That is why I seldom translate Chinese poems. Still, I have one here https://socioproctology.blogspot.com/2013/05/jeremy-bentham-vs-yang-wan-li.html
Sorry removed that by accident The link was https://rupapublications.co.in/books/pax-sinica-implications-for-the-indian-dawn/
I haven't read it but am familiar with Saran's- or, indeed, North Block's- view.
I personally think that in the next decade China will either stagnate or invent a new 'mimetic model' for a lower resource use/higher urbanized and high value added service lifestyle which will feature very different economies of scale and scope as well as different network effects. This will fundamentally change Economic and geopolitical strategy imperatives. The optimal outcome is that China chooses the 'Moh Tzu' path- in which case it will be supplying defensive technologies for free rather than seeking to play world policeman. Obviously, that won't happen. Instead, China's hands will be tied because of nuclear proliferation to its poverty stricken South. Indeed, the day may come when (if Pak's claim to have mini-nukes is true) when the 'Belt and Road' becomes the road by which Chinese demography is altered in an Islamic direction and it has to appease the crazies. There was a good reason for China to try to cut itself off and control and limit Trade.
India isn't gung ho on a Naval containment strategy. It looks as though we have missed the boat on developing Ports. Make in India is a damp squib. So India has little interest in what is happening to sea lanes in the region.
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