Two years. By 2026, Nitish and Chandrababu, taking some smaller NDA members from their respective regions, will be on opposite sides of the Seat Redistribution issue which the South is bound to lose because no party has the numbers to deliver any other outcome. On the basis of the 2024 census- which may turn into a caste census- both delimitation and women's reservation will take effect in time the 2029 General Election. This raises the possibility that SC/ST reservations- which Modi extended for a decade- will lapse in January 2030. In other words, Modi's humbling is good news for Hindi speaking non-Dalits. In defeat (relatively speaking) Modi will at last deliver to his supposed 'savarna' core constituency.
Modi, having reached his 75th year in 2026, can gracefully resign and take 'sanyas'- i.e. become a monk. After that, the BJP having lost a vote of confidence should extend 'outside support' to, before pulling the rug from under, a succession of evanescent coalitions. The aim should be to snooker Rahul into becoming PM just when the country goes off a fiscal cliff. But Rahul's becoming PM would also be the moment for secessionists to strike- since Rahul is the only major Indian politician who believes India is not a nation. It is like the EU. The problem is that nothing will be enough to satisfy the secessionists and sooner or later they will accuse Rahul of betraying them at which point they will kill him.
As for the BJP, they have disappointed both the forward castes while spooking the Dalits who don't seem to understand that reservations may disappear in January 2030 unless Parliament further extends them as it did in 2021. But why should it do so? The caste census will have put the cat among the OBC pigeons while paranoid 'Ambedkarite' politics is generating a forward caste backlash. In any case, the Ambedkarite formula was predicated on denying affirmative action to Muslims. Once that brick is dislodged from the wall, reservations of all types at the political level will disappear. If Dalits vote with Muslims under OBC leadership, Forward Castes can do nothing for them even if they have any such burning desire.
When Modi entered National Politics much was made of his OBC status. But, the truth is, he isn't a Backward Caste leader. He looks like a prosperous Modh Bania, not a Modh Ghanchi. By contrast, Akhilesh has shown that dynastic casteist parties can monopolize the OBC vote provided they play nice and give seats to numerically smaller communities. In other words, the BJP has antagonized Muslims with out achieving Hindu consolidation. Moreover, as the country goes off a fiscal cliff, it will be a case of, if not every man for himself, then every state for itself. If Naidu gets special status for Andhra, why should Nitish not get it for Bihar- which is poorer? But why stop there? Should Gujarat not be rewarded for its loyalty? Every State is special to its own people. As jobs become scarce, everybody will want 'bhumiputra' policies- i.e. no jobs for 'outsiders'.
There is an Islamic story about King Solomon who stood supported by his staff overseeing an army of djinns who were building his palace. The problem was that the King was already dead. Finally his staff rotted away and the corpse of the King toppled over and crumbled to dust. The djinns realized they had always been free to depart.
Something similar has happened to India- thanks to the hubris, the opportunism, the poor messaging, of Modi and Shah. For a couple of years, people may pretend that everything is all right. But, by 2026- unless Nitish's habit of betrayal gets the better off him- there will be a vote of confidence which Modi is bound to lose. After that, either there are General Elections or the nation limps on from fiscal to political to ecological disaster. Still, one can take comfort in the prospect of Rahul becoming Prime Minister and then- because autocracy is tempered by assassination- being blown up by some bunch of nutters.
Modi only stood for elections 23 years ago. He has no experience of coalition politics and never learned the traditional 'mandala' theory which is about keeping your enemies close because their enemies are in the outer circle trying to figure out how to stick a knife in their back and thus take their place. Modi has had a good run and his energy and administrative skill has been a great boon for the country. But his days are numbered. Still, he'll make a good monk.
Meanwhile, the INDIA coalition and the Ambedkarite nutters have destroyed the very things they sought to preserve- viz.
1) 'federal concept' of India. With seat redistribution in 2026, India becomes Hindi majoritarian and thus its wholly unitary nature will be asserted. No doubt, if Rahul can be tricked into becoming PM of a minority Government, this will be preceded by an upsurge of secessionist violence which will be dealt with in the traditional way- viz. extrajudicial killing.
There is one other possibility. Stalin and other South Indian dynasts could abandon INDIA to prop up Modi. But, Modi's own Northern MPs would rebel. A weakened Modi would be in no position to browbeat his own back-bench.
2) reserved seats for SC and STs. Why bother with this? Instead, let backward Muslims- who believe in God- replace atheistic nutters who keep demanding the abolition of 'sanatan dharma'.
Modi, of course, is the biggest loser. His 'labarthi' ('beneficiary' enrollment in various welfare schemes) program will collapse as jobless growth turns into no fucking growth and thus entitlement collapse. Infrastructure projects will get increasingly mothballed because the magic of leveraging goes into reverse when secular growth trends fall. This does not mean that some of the more corrupt or useless schemes won't go ahead. It's just that their real social r.o.i will be negative. India will get poorer and weaker. But, in a bizarre twist, the forward castes will finally be rid of Ambedkarite bullying and woke virtue signalers banging on about 'civil society'. Rahul, after all, is India's true man of destiny- i.e. destined to destroy India or die trying- and a janeodhari Brahmin to boot. When he is finally blown up, Bharat will at last be rid of its legacy of Gandhi/Nehru/Ambedkarite stupidity. The good news is Modi's attempt to include, Bengali blathershite, Vivekananda in that pantheon died a death on Kanyakumari's rock.
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