Trump delivered to his core supporters which is why he controls his party. But he pisses off a lot of people which is why likable, but stupid, Joe Biden was able to beat him last time. But Biden has been a terrible President. But, for his Party, what is the alternative? Kamala is useless. Newsom is handsome but can't read from a teleprompter because he is severely dyslexic. Also, many people believe that California is turning to shit. Newsom is associated with wokeness, fiscal irresponsibility, and giving free healthcare to illegal migrants. At least Kamala has 'tough on crime' credentials. Also she can read gud. I suppose, if donors pull the plug on senile Joe, Kamala has to replace him otherwise the party implodes. Who knows? Maybe if she just blames everything on senile Joe, her stock will rise. Also, as the children of immigrants she can be more xenophobic than fuck. Did you know that Vance's wife is Hindooooo? Them guys worship cows and are secretly scheming to ban beef burgers.
At the beginning of this year Project Syndicate published an utterly foolish article by Harold James titled
A Year of Political Chicken
Seven months later we haven't seen any fucking chicken. Biden is shit though maybe not chickenshit. Trump isn't shit. What's more Trump has united his party and takes down opponents quickly and ruthlessly. Biden is a senile chatty Kathy whom a Special Counsel described as old, forgetful and incapable of attaining 'a mental state of willfulness'.
Trump's legal problems have boosted his standing with his own supporters. He saw off challengers within his party with insulting ease. His Veep pick has genuine redneck credentials. But, the bottom line, is that he was simply better at foreign policy and economic policy and immigration than the useless flip-flopping Biden. Trump deserves to win and the recent assassination attempt on him has been a gift from Heaven. Biden's pick for head of the Secret Service comes across like an utter shithead.
Between the assured re-election of Russia’s autocrat and populist threats on both sides of the Atlantic, there is plenty of reason to worry about the future of democracy in 2024.
No. Democratic countries remain democratic because they can't be run any other way.
But the single biggest cause for concern is the US presidential election, which can best be understood with a classic proposition from game theory.
Game theory is stoooopid. Trump can do a good job as President though he too may be too old and lots and lots of people really hate him. Biden is shit but maybe Kamala will be slightly less shit. Her problem is that she can start off quite well but then quickly implodes. Maybe, if the Dems bring her in at the last moment, she can win- if she takes a well deserved dump on Biden and blames him for everything.
PRINCETON – The year 2023 ended on a sour, cheerless note, with looming elections in The scenario that is really keeping people up at night is the fact that Donald Trump has been leading US President Joe Biden in polls in states that Biden must win. But a Trump victory also may be less likely than both Trumpists and anti-Trumpians believe.
Seven months later, we have to disagree.
Such polls – taken a year ahead of the election – tend to stimulate angst and add to the sense of Trumpian momentum. But if we take a step back, we may find that the picture is more complicated. The current political dynamic in the US is unfolding along the lines of a game of chicken – a classic proposition in game theory.
No. In 'chicken', one player should yield. But that means not standing for the top job and letting some other candidate be your Party's pick. I suppose one could say 'Biden is playing 'chicken' with his party by refusing to bow out gracefully.' But that isn't really true. His party can dump him. After all, a Special Counsel said he couldn't be tried because he was senile. How difficult would be to Doctors to confirm this?
The template comes from James Dean’s “Chicken Run” in the movie Rebel Without a Cause, where two gang leaders race stolen cars toward a cliff to see who veers away from danger first. American democracy, and the world, is being subjected to the same terrifying experience.
No. There's a guy who was good at the job going up against a guy who was shit at that same job. But a lot of people hate the first guy while few hate Biden.
Both major parties are poised to nominate weak candidates whose one commonality is old age.
No. The Republicans have a guy who was good at his job. The Dems don't. But maybe there are enough Trump haters to secure them a victory.
If re-elected, Biden would be 82 on Inauguration Day, and Trump would be 78. Trump has promised to be much more radical than he was during his first term. His goal is to bring “retribution,” and to govern dictatorially to purge the US state of those who oppose him.
Why stop there? Why not say that Trump proposes to establish a thousand year Reich?
Yet he seems increasingly incapable of forming coherent sentences, and he remains as oblivious as ever to elementary political facts.
James doesn't know any fucking facts elementary or otherwise.
Senility in high office has been disastrous at key moments in history.
It made no difference what so ever.
German President Paul von Hindenburg was 84 and suffering from advanced dementia at the time of the 1932 elections that brought Hitler to power.
So what? He still defeated Hitler. Had he not run, Hitler would have become President.
Similarly, British Prime Minister Ramsay MacDonald was suffering from the onset of Alzheimer’s during the Great Depression.
This made no difference at all. Labor had split over the Chancellor, Snowden's, decision to cut the dole to balance the books. The King begged MacDonald to stay on as head of a National Coalition (which would move to Protectionism and permit a reflation of the economy without triggering a currency crisis).
Of course, it is Biden who is most often painted – incorrectly and unfairly – as doddery. In fact, he remains very sharp;
He has always been as stupid as shit. Still, he seems a nice enough guy.
but he is limited by the fiscal and economic legacy of the pandemic.
He is limited by the fact that he has never run anything. He talked in the Senate and talked as Veep. His administration started well but soon ran out of steam. Then the flip-flops began.
Though inflation has been receding, it has left many voters rattled, even in a strong economy.
Because spending 1.9 trillion does not cause Aggregate Demand to rise- right?
As the incumbent, Biden will bear the blame for this, regardless of whether it is his fault. Moreover, Biden needs to lower the temperature of US relations with China,
Blinken Idiot turned up that temperature at Anchorage. If you invite foreigners to America, take them to Hawaii and make sure there are plenty of official dinners with lots of booze. Don't invite them to Alaska and then refuse to wine and dine them. Also, hire competent translators.
even though Democrats and Republicans alike regard that country as a dangerous enemy.
Biden ran away from Afghanistan all on his own. America doesn't need enemies when its own foreign policy is self-defeating. If China is so dangerous, why did Biden say he would defend Taiwan? If it isn't, why did the White House correct Biden and say that 'strategic ambiguity' remained the order of the day?
The key to this election will be the mutual recognition by each side that the other side’s candidate is weak.
Trump is strong. The Dems have recognized this. That is why they are trying to dump Biden.
Biden’s appeal among Democrats previously owed much to the fact that he beat Trump in 2020, when many other members of the party may well have lost.
Nobody hates Biden though nobody thinks he is smart either. COVID is what made him President.
But now, one wonders whether a younger leader would be more effective in mobilizing voters, especially younger Americans who might not vote at all.
The problem is that younger Americans believe their country is doomed to decline. True, you can make money in politics, but old geezers have more money to start off with and will use it to buy those money making opportunities. Anyway, young guns seem to suffer from premature ejaculation. You have to be really really old to indulge in Bidenesque word salads. Yet anything else sounds a bit demented.
This is where the game of chicken comes in: Two old men are racing toward a cliff, and each side needs to keep its weak candidate heading toward the cliff to persuade the other side to keep its weak candidate in the race.
No. The Republicans have learnt that Trump pulverizes any and all opposition within his party. No silver bullet can slay the beast. What the Dems have learnt is that senility is their politics. Biden was the acceptable face of that senility. Now people are comparing him to Ruth Bader Ginsberg.
If a more vibrant candidate with less baggage were to come in at the last minute,
the problem is that 'vibrant candidates' will show their vibrancy by scratching each others eyes out so some geriatric gets the ticket.
they would have strong odds; but if the other side still had time to swap in a better candidate as well, it would be anyone’s game.
No. The game has been about getting in an experienced candidate. Biden and Trump have experience. They look presidential. Comatose Kamala doesn't.
Oddly, Trump’s strong polling has the potential to change this dynamic. If the Republican Party is forced to see Trump as a winner, it is more likely to stay in the race and hurdle over the cliff.
i.e. retake the White House.
Under these circumstances, it makes sense for supporters to defect (in the language of game theory) from the disastrous Trump bandwagon while they still can. Lo and behold, that is what we have started to see with Nikki Haley’s emergence as a plausible alternative.
Nice lady but useless.
Should the Republican dynamic shift, that will send a strong signal to Democrats to move to a younger candidate.
Biden wouldn't have broken a sweat beating Nikki.
This US election logic matters because it is tied up with another game of chicken.
No. If Biden gets another term there will be more, faster, flip flops. Trump will do deals.
Russia is facing economic and military exhaustion, higher inflation, and even signs of protest from the families of soldiers stuck in a suicidal conflict.
The IMF says Russia is growing faster than any other advanced economy.
But President Vladimir Putin has been betting that if he can hang on long enough,
He already has. Gaza, it must be said, has been a great boon. But what is important for a Russian autocrat is getting rid of his internal rivals. Putin may not have intended to play a long game- some thought Biden had green-lit an invasion so long as it could be passed off as a 'minor incursion'- but that is what he has been able to do because Biden has spent so much time pissing off all other nations.
the other side will give up and cut its support for Ukraine. If Americans become disenchanted and Europeans grow more divided, that could deliver the populist electoral tsunamis that he needs in Europe and the US.
Ukraine is a money pit. Its population is falling rapidly while Russian fertility is improving. Also it can't have elections while there is martial law and so many of its people are under occupation or living abroad. It seems Zelensky still has about 60 per cent support. But that could fall very quickly.
A Trump victory in November would mean that Putin’s bet paid off; he will have won the international game of chicken.
Biden may do a U turn on Ukraine before November. He has a penchant for abandoning allies. Israel can survive. Ukraine- not so much.
But this second game is dependent on the first. If another Trump presidency is ruled out by the complicated interplay of the Republicans and Democrats’ electoral calculations, the prospect of Ukraine being abandoned will fade.
Biden abandoned Kabul quickly enough.
Better still, a general recognition that reckless games are best left for Hollywood
Ronald Reagan was from Hollywood. What reckless game did he play?
would usher in a new era of political sanity.
as opposed to what? Diversity, Inclusion and Equity? Making America Shit Again? Incidentally, whatever happened to Biden's slogan 'America's back on the world stage'? I suppose it should be amended to 'At least America is not shitting itself copiously on the world stage. What's a few 'senior moments' between friends?'
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