Ruchir Sharma, writing for the FT, calls Nitish Kumar- who is a year younger than Modi at 74- the 'Joe Biden' of India. This is very foolish. Nitish leads his own party but it is the BJP which is the senior partner in Bihar. India follows the Westminster system. Modi might be wildly popular but his party failed to get a majority at the centre in 2024. He remains in power with the votes of Nitish's party and that of a few others. Nitish is personally popular despite some health problems. But so is the young Tejashwi who is just 34 years old. Nitish has won because the 'Mahila-Yuva' (Women & Youth vote) went in his favour because of specific offers made to them by his coalition. Tejashwi's 'Muslim-Yadav' combination held up but Congress & the VIP (a Nishad party) crashed and burned. The Left, too, lost seats. With hindsight, it was a mistake to keep out Owaisi's party which continues to do well in the Muslim majority Seemanchal region. For the first time, the RJD has fewer Muslim legislators than a rival party.
In his latest campaign the once earthy and easily accessible chief minister of Bihar morphed into the Joe Biden of India, rolled out for speeches but otherwise cloistered behind aides alarmed by his gaffes, blank stares and memory lapses.
Prashant Kishore, previously considered an expert on electioneering, drew attention to Nitish's health and some TV stations ran with the story. Kishore said he'd quit politics if Nitish got more than 25 seats. He got 85, just 4 less than Modi's party. Chiragh Paswan is paying court to Nitish- indeed, he is a possible successor.
Only Nitish Kumar, 74, won, despite more obvious infirmities than Biden.
His candidates won. Nitish's record on Development helped them win. But his allies also won. Tejashwi's allies lost. Congress contested 61 seats and got just 6. The Communist parties did poorly.
After covering Indian national and state elections every year for the last 30, this was my sixth trip to Bihar, where abject poverty scars the lush, marshy landscape. I was expecting Kumar’s health and stalled progress to be major issues.
Why? It is obvious that his partners will play a big role in the next administration. BJP is the biggest party with 89. Hopefully, Nitish will be able to last out his innings as CM so as to postpone succession issues.
Instead, I found deeply traditional Kumar backers still grateful for all their long-standing chief minister has done for them. They consider it rude to discuss his health, much less vote him out. The opposition treads lightly.
Prashant Kishore didn't. He now looks a fool.
And the national press largely joined this conspiracy of respectful silence.
If nobody said anything about Atal or Manmohan- both of whom were quite decrepit- why mention Nitish? It is obvious the BJP is the senior partner and that Chiragh, who has youth appeal, will have a big role.
Before Kumar took power two decades ago, this landlocked state of 135mn people was known as “the place civilisation forgot”, a dark and lawless “Jungle Raj”.
Thanks must go to nutters like Vinobha Bhave and Jayprakash Narayan for this outcome.
In his first five-year term Kumar imposed a semblance of order, built roads and bridges. In his second he brought electricity to the countryside. But in his last two terms, Kumar failed to take the next step and create jobs.
Why? He is a Socialist and averse to using muscle power to create a favourable business climate. By contrast, Yogiji is all muscle. This creates a sense of confidence. Work hard, pray to God, and you can rise up. Your operation won't be shut down by bureaucrats or targeted by 'labour' organizers.
Around the city of Purnia, the top “industry” is processing fox nuts — by hand, cracking them with mallets, and roasting over open fires. Two out of three Bihari families have at least one member who has left the state to find work. After we saw touts paying children to wade neck-deep into a garbage-filled pond, groping around for mud fish as their mothers looked on, one of my travel companions went home.
The first fishing net known to archaeology was made in 8300 BC. Biharis haven't progressed that far. What's the point of writing about its politics?
If Bihar were a country it would be the world’s 12th poorest, behind Liberia.
This is shameful. Bihar must stand first in that list.
That Kumar won anyway says much about the clash of hope and resignation in India.
No. It says much about women wanting to get 10,000 Rupees from the Government. Youth has no objection to Mummy getting a bit of cash.
The gap between average incomes in the poorest and richest states — Bihar and Telangana
Sikkim is the richest.
— is six to one. The comparable gap is roughly four to one or less in Brazil, China, the US and other major nations.
Which are nothing like India.
During Kumar’s first decade, Bihar’s average income started to catch up to the rest of India, but has fallen back since. Kumar responded by making the most statist of Indian states more so.
Because he is a Socialist.
Total government spending is 34 per cent of state GDP, nearly double the average. Half goes to social spending, and Kumar won in good part by promising more, with new spending amounting to another 3 per cent of state GDP. Across India, this is the norm.
Buying votes is nothing unusual. Trump is now promising Americans a 'dividend' of 2000 dollars funded by Tariff revenue. Oddly, he isn't a Socialist.
Candidates vie to see who can offer the most generous freebies, but Bihar can least afford it.
Put another way, its people can't afford to dispense with freebies.
Facing one of the highest deficits in any state, it can’t fund new outlays without cuts elsewhere, including roads and factories.
Factories should be earning you money. There is such a thing as a toll-road.
The problem: prioritising relief today retards development tomorrow.
Socialism is retarded. Bihar has had Socialist governments of one sort or another since the Sixties.
In one way, modernity has deepened this “welfare trap”. India has digitised delivery of government services, cutting out the intermediaries who used to steal the bulk of transfer payments. But politicians now use this network to speedily deliver cash to voters, a practice widely seen as virtual vote buying. Just before polls opened, Kumar’s government started sending a payment of 10,000 rupees to one woman from every family in Bihar. That’s around $110, but huge against Bihar’s average annual income of 70,000 rupees. Offered as “seed money” for small businesses but with no oversight, women told us they plan to spend it on immediate needs such as goats or gifts for festivals.
Cash transfers are better than giving one person in every family a government job.
Along with his main ally, the Bharatiya Janata party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Kumar crafted this offer to women as a way to break traditional voter loyalties, based on religion or caste.
That was already breaking down. 'Universal' entitlements have that effect.
Modi is also in his mid-seventies but still his energetic, acerbic self.
Combative- yes. Acerbic- not so much.
We saw him speak in the town of Nawada, where he reminded Bihar that the same Yadav clan which presided over the Jungle Raj runs the main opposition party, the Rashtriya Janata Dal. Struggling to widen its base, the RJD made offers too big for voters to believe, including one government job for every family.
Tejaswi wanted the job previously held by his Daddy & (when Daddy was in jail) his Mummy. Rahul too appears to want the family job.
Kumar’s win reflects a global trend.
Nonsense! It doesn't reflect anything other than that Tejaswi is young and still learning the ropes. Rahul is 55 and useless. Stay the fuck away from him. Be nice to Owaisi. Muslims aren't going to play second fiddle to Yadavs.
As developed democracies turn hostile to incumbents,
if they are shit- sure.
their developing peers are turning the other way.
Sri Lanka, Bangladesh & Nepal have had popular uprisings leading to regime change. Pakistan seems to have put the Army Chief above the law. India remains as stable as ever.
In India, seated leaders were losing 70 per cent of state elections before the 2000s.
Because caste coalitions kept changing. But there were exceptions to this rule- e.g. Left Front West Bengal.
They’ve come back since, winning more than half of these contests this decade.
Sometimes, this was because 'pendulum politics' was about two former allies who fell out. If one of the leaders died before the other- there was no pendulum.
Respect for elders,
Trump is 79. He is only 3 years younger than Biden.
an almost spiritual acceptance of slow progress and increasing incumbent control over the machinery of state all help explain how a Joe Biden figure could win in India.
Nonsense! Biden was a poor candidate in 1988 and 2008. He remained a poor candidate in 2020 but benefitted from lockdown because his proclivity for gaffes was curtailed. COVID had tanked the economy and thus Trump's ratings had taken a hit. But it was the fact that Biden looked like Clint fucking Eastwood when compared to fatty Trump which sealed the deal. Sadly, the man wasn't up to the job.
It may be said that Nitish lacked the charisma of Lalu or Paswan. But allying with the BJP enabled him to prevail. At an earlier period, he was an effective CM- e.g. in dealing with Naxals- but he remained a Socialist at heart. Currently, he is a good enough CM face. It will be the task of younger people in the Cabinet to deliver better outcomes for the Bihari people.
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