What is our strategy on Ukraine?

 In 2014, Tony Blair famously declared that the West should 'forget Ukraine'- i.e. ignore Putin's grabbing Crimea- to focus on fighting 'radical Islam'. Why is it that, 8 years later, the mood in Europe has changed so drastically? Apart from the obvious- the perception of a Russian failure to establish air dominance and suppression of enemy air defense-  I think the answer is that ordinary people identify with the Ukrainians and see the war there as a chance to confront Putin and bring about his downfall. Let us consider some possible reasons-

1) Disgust with our own billionaire class. Ordinary people think of Putin as a guy who has amassed 200 billion dollars which he holds through various prominent Russians who own large chunks of property in our poshest neighborhoods. They may also own football clubs and basketball teams and so forth. In taking action against these Russians, we gain the tools necessary to gain power over our own billionaire class. 

The problem with this view is that it was Yeltsin who relied on oligarchs. Putin slowly but surely took power back from them. His creation is a 'siloviki' or power elite which is nationalistic and loyal to Putin because he puts Russia's traditional foreign policy goals above economic considerations. Sanctions help Putin in the same way that they helped the Iranian or Venezuelan regimes.

2) Ukrainian popular resistance- women making molotov cocktails, all men under the age of 60 being forbidden to leave the country and being asked to pick up a machine gun- as well as the hope that the javelin missile will be a game changer in the same way that the Stinger missile was a game changer for the Afghan mujahideen- has inspired ordinary people. For the first time since the French Revolutionary Wars we have the prospect of a popular levee en masse deciding the fate of the Continent. Zelenskyy and the Klitschko brothers embody the raw courage and will to win of an entire people. We have stopped thinking of Ukraine as a corrupt kleptocracy manipulated by oligarchs and populist chauvinists. Zelenskyy has reminded us that the Ukrainians are fellow Christians and fellow Europeans. Kyiv is a European city. If it can happen there, it can happen here. Thus, even the cautious Germans appear ready to, if not  tool up and get into the fight, then maybe retool a couple of industrial units to signal sympathy. Macron, with his eye to the election, will, no doubt, bring out strong measures he has been holding in reserve. Turkey appears to be ready to place limits on Russian warships in the Black Sea and has started to refer to what is happening as a war. Even the Swiss are backing EU sanctions including those related to SWIFT and the freezing of Russian assets. All this is quite unprecedented. It may be that there has been secret diplomacy behind the scenes but, surely, such  swift and dramatic policy reversals are a function of how ordinary people are reacting to what they see on their TV screens rather than the result of occult negotiations and recondite considerations of national interest and the geopolitical balance of power.

The problem here is that popular enthusiasm can quickly collapse. Putin may change his strategy to one of attrition and hit and run operations by mercenaries which wear down the population and lead to an exodus. There is also the question of how organized crime will react to the new possibilities presented by weaker border controls and the entry and exit of armed groups. Finally, there is the risk of a slide to a nuclear exchange reminiscent of 'Able Archer' back in 1983- the year before Putin was first posted to East Germany. 

3) Economic calculation. Surely China- which does 20 times more business with us than it does with Russia- will sooner or later distance itself from Putin? The West may move ahead very rapidly with new 'clean' energy tech and this will drive the stock markets. For prudential reasons, oil and gas producers will ramp up supply and so the hit we are taking on cost of living may be just a blip. Indeed, if governments act in a concerted manner to 'sterilize' the supply shock, the West may quickly regain a 'feel good' factor. In other words, ordinary people may have more butter as well as more guns because Western governments will want to choke off the possibility of a Right Wing backlash which, inevitably, will focus on the fact that Zelenskyy is Jewish and which will then trot out the usual conspiracy theories. 

My point is that subconsciously Western leaders may see this as an opportune moment to get rid of the virus of extreme Right Wing ideology which has attracted those with essentially economic grievances. Trump himself is now anti Putin. There is no reason why Governments should not unloosen the purse strings so as to keep the population on side for what would remain a proxy war.

The problem here is that the 'demonstration effect' of Ukraine might involve disgruntled groups being inspired to act against the State. That is the other side of the coin of 'people's wars'. Watching Ukrainian ladies make molotov cocktails may put ideas into the heads of all sorts of nutjobs back home. After all, one type of 'economic calculation' involves using force to get what is financially beneficial to you. 

What is our strategy on Ukraine? What outcome are we looking for? The obvious answer is that we want Putin to be toppled by his own people. But what happens next? Before Putin there were oligarchs. After Putin there will be...what? Chaos? Motorbike gangs? Breakaway Republics all over the place busy ethnically cleansing minorities? 

The answer, of course, is that though Putin may die or fade away after refusing to stand in 2024, Putinism will remain. A new leader may enjoy a brief honeymoon with the West and there will be talk of a 're-set' after Russia hands over some valuable real estate but then Russia will simply rebuild quietly and then try to get that real estate back. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, there will be an exchange of population with the Russian speakers getting a bigger or smaller chunk of territory. As for Ukraine, will fighting a war change their polity into one that is cohesive and able to undertake needful economic reform? Not if past experience is any guide. Meanwhile, a China led Eurasian bloc will continue to consolidate itself while the West Magnitskies non-aligned regimes till they have no alternative but to sign up with China. What remains to be seen is whether crypto mavens can run the settlement system this new bloc will need. If so, many Westerners will prefer to disintermediate their own financial system thus putting an end to American 'exorbitant privilege'.