Two decades ago, a Goldman Sachs executive coined the label BRICs to describe four big emerging nations: Brazil, Russia, India and China.
Jim O'Neil was right about China. Manmohan lost the battle in 2012 to reform India so it could compete. Goldman Sachs had closed down its BRIC fund which had lost 80 percent of its value since 2010.
Rapid growth and expansion of the ranks of the wealthy in these countries vindicated the faith of investors.
Capital appreciation vindicates investor faith. That's all that matters.
Their leaders started to hold annual summit meetings and even established their own development bank.
That was India's idea. It will probably turn out to be an own goal.
They invited South Africa to become a member in 2011, conveniently completing the catchy acronym.
Yup, the thing turned to shit quickly enough.
But conceits devised by Western boosters of globalization had become obsolete well before the pandemic dramatically altered global realities this past year. China, for instance, long ago graduated from “emerging” status.
But conceits devised by Western boosters of globalization had become obsolete well before the pandemic dramatically altered global realities this past year. China, for instance, long ago graduated from “emerging” status.
So the 'conceit' wasn't a conceit at all. India could have reformed. Brazil could have avoided corruption. Russia needn't have invaded Crimea.
With its hydrocarbon-dependent and isolationist economy, Russia never belonged in the group.
Russia could have gone in a very different direction. It has some successful industries.
Today, the heedless celebration of fast growth and wealth creation seems to belong to a naive and unreflective age.
Today, the heedless celebration of fast growth and wealth creation seems to belong to a naive and unreflective age.
No. Today we understand why things went wrong and how easy it would have been to prevent things going wrong. On the the other hand, there can be no doubt that the growth potential was there.
Meanwhile, evidence that post-pandemic inequality will be lethal to everyday social order, let alone democracy, in emerging economies is mounting
For Mishra evidence of a return to the Soviet ideology he worshipped as a kid is always mounting.
This became blindingly clear last month as South Africa, by some measures the most unequal country in the world, descended into its worst violence since the end of apartheid.
Because Zuma was put in jail.
Looters, vandals and arsonists rampaged across the country, destroying shopping malls and industrial warehouses, and burning lorries. Hundreds of people died. Property and business losses amount to hundreds of millions of dollars, and recovery will take years.
Looters, vandals and arsonists rampaged across the country, destroying shopping malls and industrial warehouses, and burning lorries. Hundreds of people died. Property and business losses amount to hundreds of millions of dollars, and recovery will take years.
Mishra was jizzing in his pants as he typed this.
The immediate provocation for the rioting was the sentencing of former president Jacob Zuma to 15 months in prison for refusing to cooperate with an inquiry into corruption during his nine years in office. The pandemic that has killed more than 70,000 South Africans and plunged many more into destitution played its part. But rage had long been building up in the country, where unemployment stands at record levels (33%), and where many people lack food, power and running water as well as jobs.
The immediate provocation for the rioting was the sentencing of former president Jacob Zuma to 15 months in prison for refusing to cooperate with an inquiry into corruption during his nine years in office. The pandemic that has killed more than 70,000 South Africans and plunged many more into destitution played its part. But rage had long been building up in the country, where unemployment stands at record levels (33%), and where many people lack food, power and running water as well as jobs.
Similarly the hoodie riots under David Cameron were caused by rage building up. Looters aren't opportunistic. They have anger management issues.
Those same factors will play a central role when — and there is no “if” here — similarly extensive breakdowns occur in India and Brazil.
Those same factors will play a central role when — and there is no “if” here — similarly extensive breakdowns occur in India and Brazil.
Not if the Indians and the Brazilians shoot the rioters and beat and imprison those who instigate them.
The necessary ingredients — extreme social divisions of race, religion, class and caste; widening gaps between city and country; and a baleful, incompetent, if not corrupt, ruling class — have been present for many years in both countries. They’ve only become more toxic in recent months.
The necessary ingredients — extreme social divisions of race, religion, class and caste; widening gaps between city and country; and a baleful, incompetent, if not corrupt, ruling class — have been present for many years in both countries. They’ve only become more toxic in recent months.
Mishra, by contrast, has always been just as toxic as he now is.
Inequality has grown more concentrated in India, home to two out of the three richest tycoons in Asia — Mukesh Ambani (whose wealth is now estimated at $78 billion) and Gautam Adani ($53 billion). Meanwhile, in probably the largest-ever implosion of the middle class, the heart of any modern consumer economy, more than 200 million Indians have gone back to earning less than $5 a day.
Inequality has grown more concentrated in India, home to two out of the three richest tycoons in Asia — Mukesh Ambani (whose wealth is now estimated at $78 billion) and Gautam Adani ($53 billion). Meanwhile, in probably the largest-ever implosion of the middle class, the heart of any modern consumer economy, more than 200 million Indians have gone back to earning less than $5 a day.
Which is why the Left has disappeared and economic policy will now move towards the right. Manmohan wanted to do this ten years ago.
India already accounted for nearly a third of the world’s malnourished people.
India already accounted for nearly a third of the world’s malnourished people.
because it stuck with stupid Socialist policies longer and did not transfer rural girls into giant urban factory dormitories or otherwise suppress fertility amongst the very poor.
Aiding the wealthy with tax cuts for corporations, India’s Hindu nationalist government presently presides over an increase in hunger, even in urban areas, and among middle-class Indians.
Who understand that the country is over-populated. There isn't enough food to go around. That's good for a Hindu nationalist party in an overwhelmingly Hindu nation.
In Brazil, where half a million people have lost their lives to the pandemic, the rich increased their share of national wealth by 2.7% last year; they now possess almost half of it. At the same time, the poorest 40% of Brazilians lost a fifth of their income, while average income per capita fell to its lowest level in a decade.
In Brazil, where half a million people have lost their lives to the pandemic, the rich increased their share of national wealth by 2.7% last year; they now possess almost half of it. At the same time, the poorest 40% of Brazilians lost a fifth of their income, while average income per capita fell to its lowest level in a decade.
This does not necessarily mean Bolsanaro will be re-elected. But it does mean Lula or whoever he puts in will follow right wing policies. The alternative is to become like Venezuela. Peru however may go down that road.
As in India, widespread immiseration has been accompanied by an assault on democratic institutions.
As in India, widespread immiseration has been accompanied by an assault on democratic institutions.
Truly democratic institutions would yield ethnic cleansing on a massive scale.
Deepening his country’s Covid nightmare with his virus-denial and vaccine-baiting, Brazil’s President Jair Bolsonaro has undermined governance with a series of arbitrary decrees. In March, he fired his defense minister, evidently for resisting the president’s efforts to get the military to back him politically.
The Army has grown tired of that lunatic. Lula is out of prison.
Much attention since Brexit and Donald Trump’s election in 2016 has been focused on the ruinous political consequences of unchecked inequality in the world’s most advanced economies: permanent and rancorous polarization, a collapse of trust in democratic institutions, the rise of conspiracy theories and entrenchment of demagoguery.
Much attention since Brexit and Donald Trump’s election in 2016 has been focused on the ruinous political consequences of unchecked inequality in the world’s most advanced economies: permanent and rancorous polarization, a collapse of trust in democratic institutions, the rise of conspiracy theories and entrenchment of demagoguery.
But, in the UK, the 'Red Wall' collapsed and bumbling BoJo seems stronger than ever. Meanwhile Biden has delivered boondoggle on a massive scale but nothing else. Let's see if Nina Turner- who said voting for Biden was like eating shit- gets the Ohio congress seat she is after.
This process of social and political disintegration was always far advanced, though little noticed, in emerging economies. Moreover, it seems to have no corrective. The pandemic has now accelerated it. South Africa provides a glimpse of what might lie ahead for the onetime stars of globalization.
This process of social and political disintegration was always far advanced, though little noticed, in emerging economies. Moreover, it seems to have no corrective. The pandemic has now accelerated it. South Africa provides a glimpse of what might lie ahead for the onetime stars of globalization.
Shoot protestors. Do it now. Follow sensible economic policies. Ignore virtue signalers who gas on about human rights and hunger and inequality and so forth. The alternative is turning into Zimbabwe or Venezuela.
In Mishra's alternative universe, evidence is always mounting that Bernie Sanders will pave the way for a Bolshevik takeover. History will at last conform to what he believed as a child.
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