Almost exactly three years ago, I wrote a post asking if Zelenskyy would go the way of Sakashvilli- a former Georgian President now in jail. I got a lot wrong in that post. In subsequent posts I saw Zelenskyy as a heroic, even Churchillian, figure. But Churchill was a professional soldier turned statesman. He wooed FDR. He did not try to bully him or show him up in front of his own people. Because of his American mother, Churchill- more than any of his contemporaries in England- understood that the American Civil War was the first truly modern war. It was then that the US showed its extraordinary capacity to very quickly train and equip vast armies. Thus, Churchill was properly humble to what he knew must be senior partner in the Union of English speaking people in which he believed so firmly. This is not to say that things never got heated between him and FDR. Relations were greatly strained at the Casablanca conference. But then FDR unilaterally announced the war objective was 'unconditional surrender' which took Churchill by surprise but which was greatly in the interest of the Empire. Where there is great asymmetry of power, the smart move is to let the big guy commit on his own to going whole hog. FDR did so not because Churchill was at the Conference but because Stalin wasn't. The lesson here is that the guy not in the room is the one who matters. In this case, it was China. If Zelenskyy is a nutter who will go the way of a Sakashvilli, stick to Putin and watch Europe back down. If Zelenskyy isn't a nutter, he will say little but maybe cry while showing pictures of murdered babies. In broken English, he should express his nation's gratitude to Uncle Sam and say, when a reporter asks him why he isn't wearing a suit, that he does not have the height and shoulder width and commanding presence of Donald Trump. 'I seeemple man. I iz no have gud clothes. But Ukraine rich. I dig dig dig raw earth for you earn mucho dollar. Maybe buy nice suit for my daughter's bat mitzvah- how you say... quinceañera?'. At this point Trump might make a grand gesture. Why? What a smart POTUS wants is to drive a wedge between Russia and China. Currently Putin looks like the weak sister which is why it is worth wooing him. But maybe not all that much. If Trump chooses to put the screws to Putin it means he will have to give China a better deal. That's what really matters. For the moment, assuming Europe backs down and the Ukrainians dump the joker, China can carry on with its current strategy while considering what global trade patterns will look like eighteen months from now. That suits Trump too. Much of what will unfold is 'discovery' about elasticities, robustness etc. Once that picture has clarified- i.e. the deals are made- then 'security' can be easily settled. At any rate, that's what Trump is saying loud and clear to China precisely because the name of that country never passed anyone's lips.
Zelenskyy, in his joint press conference with Trump, took the opposite tack to Churchill with FDR. He repeatedly contradicted his host and made an unseemly jibe- 'you have nice ocean and don't feel now, but you will feel it in the future'- in other words, Americans are pussies. You can say this in a pub towards closing time and, if you are a big guy who served in the Stepsnaz, the weedy little Yank you are talking to may swallow the insult. But, Zelenskyy was in the White House not some low dive. Moreover, he was the little guy and Trump was the big beast with the swinging dick. Trump shot him down but did not lose his own cool. After all, Trump had achieved all his aims in the interview.
By contrast, Zelenskyy hadn't just blown himself up- he will have to go otherwise Ukraine will be completely isolated- he has blown up Article 5 of NATO. This is the requirement to aid a member who has been attacked. It has only been used once- after 9/11- and was an occasion for ex-Warsaw pact countries to show their loyalty.
What Article 5 does not cover is support for a country which initiates hostilities. Arguably, NATO countries which sends troops into the Ukrainian meat grinder have initiated hostilities. If Russia retaliates along their border with such countries, America could refuse support. Just a day or two ago, some Europeans were hailing Trump's support for Article 5 in a Press Conference he gave. Now the joker has blown it up.
I suppose Zelenskyy's game plan was
1) get a security guarantee even though guarantees mean shit just as assurances do (the US had assured its territorial integrity back in the Nineties when it gave up nukes)
2) get European troops into the meat grinder and hope for an escalation of hostilities across their borders so that Article 5 is triggered and a united NATO defeats Russia and gets it to pay massive reparations to Ukraine.
A smart guy who wants a security guarantee says 'look, there is no security problem. Putin is a lovely guy. The whole thing was a misunderstanding. What's the harm in giving a guarantee to a pal who will never ask you to honor it? Don't forget we've lots of lovely 'raw earth' (as Trump puts it) which you are welcome to have as a present from us.
It is now evident that Zelenskyy is not a smart guy. He said Putin is now using ballistic missiles against Ukraine because Putin thinks Ukraine is part of Russia. The problem here is that ICBMs are ballistic missiles. They can cross 'nice oceans' and flatten multiple cities. Putin has no beef with America or Poland because only Ukrainians and maybe Byelorussians speak Russian (Zelensky is a Russian speaker by birth). Why get involved in a fratricidal war? It is clear Zelenskyy will never make peace. He is like Sakashvili who led his country to defeat in a war in which Russia supported the other side. After his own people had enough of his misrule he fled to Ukraine where he was made a governor of a Province by Poroshenko. Then the crazy fellow turned against his patron and created his own political party. Poroshenko stripped him of citizenship. Zelensky, once elected, restored it and gave the nutter some high sounding job. Then the silly man made the mistake of returning to Georgia where he is rotting in jail.
Perhaps this will be Zelenskyy's own future trajectory. I suppose there has been corruption and beating and killing of opponents under his regime. There must be a good reason he hasn't held elections. He may have to flee to some other country once he gets the order of the boot. Perhaps that is his true motivation. He just wants to survive even if every last drop of valorous Ukrainian blood has to be shed to keep him in power.
There was no great harm in Zelensky dressing like a soldier during the conflict. The mistake was to think he was actually Batman. European leaders need to put some distance between themselves and this maniac. A joker can be a winning card in some card games. But, this joker can't trump Trump.
