France is in flames. King Charles had to cancel his visit. Will Macron back down on Pension reform? Perhaps. What about India? Will Congress protests over Rahul's disqualification bring the country to its knees? No. Don't be silly.
The always silly Christopher Jaffrelot writes in the Wire-
India’s political trajectory is completing the cycle I expected.
Did Jaffacake expect Rahul's disqualification? No. Nobody did.
In Modi’s India (Westland 2023), I studied the transition from national populism to electoral authoritarianism,
which is what obtained when Congress was not helmed by a moon-calf
a phase marked by the capture by the executive of key institutions (including the Election Commission) and the domestication of “mainstream” media with the help of crony capitalists.
Why not just say that the RSS has seized power and has set up concentration camps for those from Semitic Religions, Communists, Trade Unionists, Homosexuals and Liberals?
During this moment that other countries have experienced too, elections are still taking place because the supreme leader needs the legitimacy of a popular mandate for prevailing over other power centres (including the judiciary), but elections are not a level playing field anymore, not only because of the media’s bias, but also because of the saturation of the public space that big money permits (hence electoral bonds etc.).
Very true. That is why Biden will permit elections. Macron, on the other hand, will take France down the road to a Sixth Republic after carrying out a coup d'etat using Algerian troops.
A new sequence has just started. When institutions of the Republic are captured by the ruling party the way they are in India today, the opposition is forced to find alternative ways and means.
Indeed. They are having to resort to fellatio and cunnilingus because they are not receiving any nice Electoral Bonds from Adani.
Rahul Gandhi invested first in parliament, where he denounced attacks against democracy and the nexus between the Modi government and new oligarchs, but that was clearly not enough: not only has parliament been emasculated (to such an extent that some of the debates which took place there during the Emergency compare favourably with what we see today), but Lok Sabha speeches are not reported in the “mainstream” media anymore.
Because they are shit. Jaffacake thinks Rahul is Joan of Arc. First she invested in the Dauphin in her crusade to rid France of the English. Then she got cozy with Giles de Retz. The English burned her at the stake.
The leader of the opposition
isn't Rahul.
needed to go to the people, to interact directly with those who otherwise would continue to ignore reality because of constant disinformation.
Very kind of Rahul to interact with those who ignore reality. Soon it will be Jaffacake's turn. After all, he has been ignoring Indian reality longer than most Indians have been alive.
The Bharat Jodo Yatra was also a way to remobilise the Congress cadres in the wake of the recent party elections. In spite of very poor media coverage (qualitatively as well as quantitatively), this 4,000-km-long yatra has been a success: Congress was on its way back to its pre-independence roots, as a social movement bringing together all kinds of people, when the dominant majoritarian doxa tends to exclude so many citizens from the official nation.
Very true. The BJP was marginalizing the billions of Gay, immigrant, Muslim swineherds who ignore reality by populating Indian banlieues in Jaffacake's sad excuse for a brain.
The next moves
The next step was predictable: Rahul Gandhi “had” to be neutralised.
Jaffacake means 'neutered'. Sonia had that puppy spayed- right? Why else is the dynast unable to have an heir of his own?
The pretext that has been used – defamation of the Modis of the world – is the only thing one could find. It sounds paradoxical given the kind of sarcasm Narendra Modi himself resorted to vis-à-vis “Pasta behen”, the “Jersey cow” and “Maun Mohan Singh”.
None of which is 'collective denunciation' or 'criminal defamation' in the eyes of the law.
But there was no better alibi available. It was useful simply because MPs sentenced to two years of jail can be disqualified – and the objective was to remove Rahul Gandhi from parliament.
No. The objective of the CJM was to discourage Rahul from criminally defaming large groups of people. If he expresses contrition, a higher court may reduce the quantum of punishment.
This move reflects the extreme nervousness of the rulers who clearly apprehend new discussions on the relations between Gautam Adani and Narendra Modi in parliament, at a time when the business community, in India and abroad, is holding its breath.
No. The Adanis have turned the corner. Had Rahul not been disqualified, the Speaker may have had to allow a motion excluding him from Parliament. As things stand, the Government passed its budget. Its own MPs have the upper hand in Parliament and can always cause an adjournment.
Moves of that kind are always Plan Bs – to avoid the worse. But this exercise in damage control will have adverse consequences.
No it won't. Rahul's lawyers will get the quantum of punishment reduced on appeal. On the other hand, Kharge may win big in Karnataka. But Congress is still rejecting a 'third force'. All the offer is an alliance of crooks complaining that investigative agencies are preparing criminal cases against them for a variety of misdeeds.
Blowback
First, opposition leaders are not sentenced to jail for minor crimes like this one in liberal democracies.
Yes they are- if such is the law of the land. Even ex-Prime Ministers can be sent to jail. Narasimha Rao was sentenced to three years in jail for vote buying. The French, of course, have their own way of doing things. You can rape kids and get off with a slap on the wrist.
India, therefore, is weakening its claim of being the “mother of democracy” and the “Guru of the word”:
Sonia is the true mother of democracy. Rahul is the Guru whose wisdom the world stands in need of today
the country is diluting its soft power six months before the G20 summit when it was supposed to promote this image.
The image India needs to promote is as a country which defends its corporations the way the Swiss defends its Banks.
Secondly, like in Turkey, Israel, Hungary and Poland, radical moves like this one foster the unity of the opposition.
This cretin doesn't get that, in the countries he has named, power remains far from that opposition.
Rivals of Rahul Gandhi, including Arvind Kejriwal, are now realising the existential risk that this regime is representing for all dissenters – including them, something the arrest of Manish Sisodia had already made clear.
Crooks must form an alliance to close down the Courts and Investigative Agencies.
When opposition leaders close ranks, the task of authoritarian leaders become more complicated: their polarisation strategy, in a way, boomerangs.
But nothing of the sort has happened in Poland, Hungary, Turkey etc. Netanyahu is back in power in Israel though he is likely to back down in his fight with the Judiciary. Modi was too wise to get into any such tussle. It is the court which has disqualified Rahul.
This new situation “forces” them to become even more illiberal, except if they can co-opt new supporters: whether the Jyotiraditya Scindia’s “model”/syndrome can be replicated will be an important variable to factor in for assessing India’s political situation in the coming weeks and months.
Nonsense! In Karnataka, kleptocrats who left Congress for the BJP are now switching back to the Mothership of corruption.
But leaders of state parties, not only in Delhi and Punjab, but also in Bihar, in UP (where Mayawati may return to active politics one day),
most foolish prediction ever!
West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand and Kerala may join those of Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu because the order of the day may now be to close ranks.
Nothing wrong in that. We'd like to see a good clean fight between two credible candidates in 2024. An alliance of crooks against the Courts is not in the Nation's interest. It will be wiped out at the polls. The fact is, Modi has clean hands. His family is not enriching itself. He is a good orator. He wins if 2024 is about Mr. Clean vs Crooks Consolidated.
The results of the coming elections in Karnataka (and then in Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan) will of course also determine the scenario of the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
No. The new State government in Karnataka will have just enough time to fuck up before the General Election.
Lastly, the disqualification of Rahul Gandhi (and his possible imprisonment) may be counterproductive for the country’s rulers.
The country's rulers are the voters. If RaGa is out of the picture, they get a better choice menu. Sadly, a higher court is likely to reduce the quantum of punishment and so he will remain in Indian politics.
In case he is jailed, it may result in the shift of the victimisation repertoire from one side of the political spectrum to the other.
Nonsense! Once a dynast is jailed, a host of fresh charges against him and his cronies gets filed. The aura of invincibility gets dented. There is a classic prisoner's dilemma type scenario. Everybody wants to turn approver so as to escape jail or get a reduced sentence.
Since 2002, Narendra Modi projects himself as a victim of the establishment represented by the “liberals”, “Lutyens Delhi-ites”, the “Khan market gang” and their spokespersons (including the NDTV of yesteryears).
This only matters to people who know who 'Lutyens' was. Rahul played into Modi's hands by attacking all Modis- some of whom, it appears, are OBC. That's quite enough to be getting along with.
He claimed to embody the suffering of the plebeians who are also the direct casualties of these elite groups, as a “chaiwallah” and an OBC.
A claim less ludicrous than that Rahul is a plebian suffering the slings and arrows of outrageous fortune just like any chai-wallah or rickshaw-wallah.
This repertoire may not be audible anymore if the real victim is none other than Rahul Gandhi, the great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru who spent more than nine years of his life in jail and made many sacrifices for the cause of India’s freedom.
But Rajiv and Sonia cashed in that legacy to put billions in their own pockets through Bofors and a host of other scams.
But in case Rahul is not sent to jail, he will continue to be on the street.
Unless Khalistanis kill him. Don't forget, they helped the Tigers get Rajiv. Them guys are just stupid enough to think the fellow is on the road back to power and thus they have a narrow window of opportunity to bump him off.
After the Yatra that took him from Tamil Nadu to Jammu and Kashmir, another one can now take place between Gujarat and the North-East, via strongholds of BJP, including UP.
Nothing wrong with going walkabout for half the year, every year. After all, it was Murli Manohar who did the first 'Ekta Yatra' more than 30 years ago.
The Congress can now rely not only on party cadres, but also on sympathisers who are identifying its chief as the alternative to Modi.
Which is excellent news for the BJP.
Here is another lesson of the disqualification move: till recently, the BJP leaders congratulated themselves to have to fight against Rahul Gandhi, whom they considered as weaker than Mamata Banerjee or Arvind Kejriwal. Times are changing – because of his stamina that has endowed him with some new charisma,
the guy has a Saddam type beard. Cool.
but also because of the way the BJP leaders have targeted him: paradoxically, the rulers of the country are actively participating in the making of their challenger.
How is that a paradox? Everybody wants to run against an unelectable moon-calf- not a smart dude.
The road ahead
Whether Rahul will be finally convicted will depend on the role that the judiciary will play. Recently, Chief Justice D.Y. Chandrachud described the basic structure of the Constitution as the North Star of India’s democracy. Will the Supreme Court fight again to defend it?
Indira's goons tried to get his daddy impeached coz he sent Sanjay to jail over Kissa Kursi ka. Jaffacake is talking bollocks. If the case winds up before the Supreme Court, Singhvi will ask CJI to recuse himself. But the alternative may be worse. The Judiciary will want its revenge for what Indira did to it back in the Seventies. If a mere CJM can sentence Rahul, imagine what the CJI can do! Instead of criminal defamation, Rahul could be accused of hate speech like Azam Khan. An SIT to probe the family's wealth may be constituted. Vadra goes to jail. Priyanka goes to jail. Sonia could be spared for health reasons.
If so, after more than six years of mostly complacent verdicts – or abstention of any verdict – the court would be back on the forefront of public life and that may not be good news for the country rulers either.
It may be very very fucking bad news for the Dynasty.
To sum up: Rahul Gandhi’s disqualification may be a turning point,
fuck off! It is a storm in a teacup. A superior court will reduce the quantum of punishment. This is fake news.
but the ball is in the court of the opposition, of the judiciary – and in the court of Rahul himself!
but not in Jaffacake's court because nobody wants to play with himself and so he plays with himself instead. Sad.
I do not expect any reaction from the West
though it would be nice if Macron came and handled one or two of Jaffacake's balls
whose priorities are not articulated in terms of democratic values anymore
nor in terms of Jaffacake's neglected balls
and whose presence in the debate may be counterproductive anyway: the syndrome of the “foreign hand” – that Indira Gandhi used during the Emergency
when, if not chopping off balls, she was forcibly vasectomizing hundreds of thousands of people
– remains very strong, as the uproar caused by Rahul’s recent speeches in UK have shown.
Meanwhile, it is France which has gone up in flames. The FT has a headline asking if France is on its way to a Sixth Republic. Meanwhile India is still on its first and only Republic. Jaffacake has a lot of balls to write condescendingly about India while his own country totters between La Pen and Pension reform.
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