Wednesday, 27 March 2019

More nonsense on the Bengal famine

The Bengal Famine was caused by food availability deficit. Demand for food increased but Supply fell. It has been suggested that a hurricane and a fungal infection reduced indigenous supply while, obviously, imports from Burma were impossible because of the Japanese occupation. No one has said the Bengal famine was caused by a drought. Yet a team of scientists led by Prof Vimal Mishra of IIT Gandhinagar’s civil engineering department, have published a paper stating that because there was no drought, there could not have been a food availability deficit. This is extremely silly.
The last major famine in the British era occurred in 1943, which is also known as the Bengal Famine. The famine resulted in 2-3 million deaths [Devereux, 2000]. Our SAD analysis identified 1937-1945 as a period under drought based on severity, area, and duration. However, we find the drought was most widespread during August and December 1941 (Table S1 and S2) – prior to the famine. Based on all-India averaged soil moisture drought extent, in 1943, the drought-affected only about 12% of the country (Fig. S7a). Therefore, this was the only famine that does not appear to be linked directly to soil moisture drought and crop failures (Fig. S8a). The famine-affected  region received 15, 3, 9, and 4% above normal precipitation during June, July, August, and 281 September of 1943 (Fig. S8b). We find that the Bengal famine was likely caused by other factors related at least in part to the ongoing Asian Theater of World War II including malaria, starvation and, malnutrition [Sen, 1976].
What a wonderful finding! Famine is caused by starvation and malnutrition.
In early 1943, military and political events adversely affected Bengal’s economy [Tauger, 2009], which was exacerbated by refugees from Burma [Maharatna, 285 1996]. Additionally, wartime grain import restrictions imposed by the British government played a  major role in the famine (FIC, 1945).
Food was a devolved subject. It was Indian run administrations in the Provinces which prohibited the export of food to other States. The British were only in charge of Defense and International Relations. Why blame them?

The authors don't mention that there was a second famine in East Bengal (i.e. Bangladesh) after a Democratic Government had been installed there. There was no drought but there was flooding. The corruption of the officials and politicians caused hundreds of thousands of people to starve to death.

Furthermore, inflation of the rupee between March and May 287 1943 [Sen, 1976] resulted in rice prices five to six times higher than before the famine. The situation was exacerbated by the failure of the British government to declare a state of famine to avoid an increase in aid (FIC, 1945).
Bengali politicians failed to declare a state of famine and implement the Famine Code. They and they alone had that right and obligation.
We note that aside from the 1943 Bengal Famine, all the other famines in the 1870-2016 appear to be related at least in part to widespread soil moisture drought.
Yet the biggest post Independence famine was in Bangladesh. Like the 1943 famine, it was not caused by drought. What is the point of making such a stupid assumption?

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