Thursday, 22 August 2019

For Thy Eadwacer expelled my Wulf as Pride


For Thy Eadwacer expelled my Wulf as Pride; name me the Crusade I haven't tried!
& for in Madhusudhan's bombastic prattle, no Maya-Sita is descried
With Milton's Satan, I'd battle- but side by side
After the Angels died & only Madness survived...

Envoi-

Prince! Twixt Christ & Ceasar, ordain as Peace-Weaver
For Magdalene a beard & for Metatron, a beaver.





Sunday, 18 August 2019

I, heardsæligne, hygegeomorne, in woruldrice

'Tis scarcely news that Love was lost for aye in Beauty's maze
Nor a novel excuse, that Faith burnt up in Being's blaze
But strange I ween, by Woe yet nursed
As a Whore is cursed, Son, the Day its Sun obeys!

Envoi-
Midons! So Sorrow's Seven Swords gain a single sheath
My Cordelia, thy Hlaford's blasted heath.

Thursday, 15 August 2019

Akeel Bilgrami's Gramscian stupidity

 Akeel Bilgrami wrote as follows a year ago in Outlook-

The state in polities broadly described as ‘liberal democracies’ with political economies broadly described as ‘capitalist’ are characterised by a feature that Gramsci called ‘hegemony’. This is a technical term, not to be confused with the loose use of that term to connote ‘power and domination over another’. In Gramsci’s special sense, hegemony means that a class gets to be the ruling class by convincing all other classes that its interests are the interests of all other classes. It is because of this feature that such states avoid being authoritarian.
This is nonsense. First a class gets to rule and then it gains hegemony- i.e. moral and ideological and political legitimacy. If it isn't ruling, people don't believe it could rule until it finally makes a move which makes it a plausible ruling class. Suppose Mussolini's Black Shirts had spent all their time marching around and giving boring speeches. They would have been laughed at the way Moseley's Black Shirts were laughed at.

Consider the career of Jayprakash Narayan. When he was wandering around in the boondocks doing bhoodan work, he had no 'hegemonic' power.  He was respected, even venerated, but he was ignored. It was only when he started interfering in actual politics that he gained a modicum of such power.

Authoritarianism is a style of exercising power. But, this style is dictated by the nature of the country. Russia has always had authoritarian leadership- or else has been anarchic. Gorbachev may have wanted to avoid authoritarianism but he failed almost immediately. Putin was a welcome change from the drunken buffoon Yeltsin. China too has always been either authoritarian or a complete shambles. India has always been a relatively 'soft' state for purely fiscal reasons associated with rain-fed agriculture and strong, caste based, hurdles to increasing productivity. Simply put, authoritarianism can't pay for itself and, in any case no great psychic benefit accrues from rendering very poor people yet more abject.
Authoritarian states need to be authoritarian precisely because they lack Gramscian hegemony.
Nonsense! Authoritarianism, in some countries, is associated with higher productivity and superior internal and external security. If an autocrat- like Gorbachev- decides he'd prefer to be genuinely loved by his people and surrenders control of the economy, then there is a scissors crisis and he is toppled.

Why pretend that the style of exercising power is simply a matter of fashion? Russians can't go around in dhotis and sarees. Their asses would freeze off if  they did. Indians can't go around in fur coats. They'd boil to death. Indian fashions are different from Russian fashions because the climate is different.

Gramsci was Italian. What he had to say may have had some relevance to his own country. But Italy is very different from India. No doubt, there was once quite a strong Communist movement in India. But they shat the bed repeatedly, thanks to their ideological blinkers, and their 'long march through the institutions' ended in wholesale irrelevance.

It would follow from this that if a state that does possess hegemony in this sense is authoritarian, there is something compulsive about its authoritarianism.
So, if Russians wear fur coats instead of muslin kurtas in Winter this is because, according to Bilgrami, there is something compulsive about their desire to wear warm clothes.
Now, what is interesting is that the present government in India keeps boastfully proclaiming that it possesses hegemony in this sense, that it has all the classes convinced that its policies are to their benefit. If so, one can only conclude that its widely rec­orded authoritarianism, therefore, is pathological.
Not if those 'recording' the supposed authoritarianism are known to be stupid liars.

Bilgrami is saying that if any country elects a party he doesn't like then that party must be pathologically insane. This means the voters of that country are cretins.
There have been spectacular cases of this authoritarianism such as the recent arrest of five journalists and professors on charges that are virtually nonsensical.
Why? Naxalites do exist. They genuinely are at war with the State. They do have supporters who keep their affiliation secret. Bilgrami himself writes only nonsense. His opinion on legal matters is worthless because he is stupid and ignorant.
The liberal middle class has expressed some anger about these and, given how authoritarian the government has become, that took some courage.
The Indian middle class is not liberal. It is religious and socially conservative. It does not give a shit about some stupid professors or journalists. It only takes vanity, not courage, to virtue signal on this issue.
But Muslims and Dalits and, quite generally, the unprotected poor suffer from brutality and arbitrary arrest each day and this goes unreported even in the regional media. It is so pervasive that it is not news and it invokes nothing but indifference from the liberal middle class.
Arresting people costs money. India is poor. It does not have the money to go around brutalizing and arbitrarily arresting hundreds of millions of people. Bilgrami is telling stupid lies.

The middle class needs the labor of the poorer class. If your workers keep getting beaten or arrested, you will suffer from great inconvenience and may go bankrupt. Taxpayers don't want their money wasted on beating up their own workers. What the middle class is 'indifferent' to, is the stupid lies of cretinous academics who were once considered 'useful idiots' by the Reds but are now known to be utterly useless though as idiotic as ever.
Quite apart from this compulsive tic of authoritarianism (compulsive, as I said, because it exists in spite of the more or less plausible claim to hegemony), a good question to ask is what underlies the hegemony itself?
The BJP is focusing on things voters want and is trying to deliver. Other parties which take this approach can beat it at its own game. Those that talk nonsense about Fascism or Authoritarianism get wiped out at the polling booths.
Before the 2004 election, there was a similar claim to hegemony by the then BJP government.
No. The BJP claimed to have achieved something which it had not actually done- viz. deliver prosperity and security to the masses.
All was said to be luminous, all classes were told to bask in the Indian sunshine and vote the government in again. The electorate refused. No doubt this was partly because of the unexpectedly impressive campaign carried out by Sonia Gandhi’s leadership.
The Communists too did well. But they frittered away their gains by adopting a foolish 'popular front' strategy. Sonia may have had some genuine sympathy with the Libtards and Sickularists and did give prominence to 'public intellectuals' like Bilgrami. But they shat the bed by alientating the Hindu majority. Indeed, they also alienated Muslims and Dalits by painting them as abject and unable to stand up for themselves. However, it was the corruption and incompetence of the ruling party which brought it down. Modi, no doubt, had done well in Gujerat but there was plenty of dead wood and senile nutjobs in the BJP- indeed, there still are. No party has a monopoly of talent. Still, the fact is, the RSS trained politicians have a better reputation than others. The Left should be raising up leaders of similar caliber. It can't do so by writing stupid shite.

But, more relevant to the question of hegemony is the fact that India was saved by its illiteracy.
Bilgrami is being foolish. Italy and Turkey had high illiteracy when Mussolini and Ataturk took over. China had low literacy when Mao took power. There is no connection between 'hegemony' and literacy.
The propaganda of ‘India Shining’ by an uncritical press reached mostly the literate middle class. The illiterate among the electorate got a far better political education from their own experience of life and politics. They voted the government out.
As they had previously voted it in and would do so again. Literacy does not matter. Propaganda does not matter. What matters is whether voters believe a particular party will do a better job of governance.
What, then, was different in 2014?
Congress looked utterly decrepit. Rahul had failed to take charge of the Commonwealth Games the way his Dad had taken charge of the Asian games. He wasn't putting himself forward for the top job and he wasn't letting Manmohan be effective either. Modi was the only candidate who said he wanted the top job because he'd be good at it.
Well, for one thing there is no denying that apart from the period of the Emergency, the incumbency of UPA-II was about as bad a period of governance as has been known in independent India. But y’s failures cannot explain x’s hegemony, which can only be explained by x’s success in convincing others that the interests of those it represents are the interests of all.
Nothing can explain x's hegemony because hegemony does not exist. It is a silly theory.
And this was achieved not merely by the media (as cheerleading as before and possibly with wider influence now as a result of an increase in its reach) but, as is well known, by a swaggering leader’s charisma.
Currently the BJP is much better than Congress and so it has become the national party by default. This may change. Even the Left may make a comeback if it dishes Gramsci for something more sensible.
As is also well-known, the substance of what he said and what his party stood for is to be found in two elementary propositions: open India to globalised finance even more than the past quarter century so as to create jobs and opportunities; and India is a Hindu country, with others to be tolerated on a strict understanding that that is so. Where the latter could not possibly be the basis of hegemony, the former was intended to pick up the slack.
Poor countries need f.d.i to industrialize. This is a matter of common sense not some sinister 'hegemony'.
If Hindus want to vote for parties which say India is a Hindu country then all power-seeking political parties will say this- if Hindus are a majority in that constituency.
There was nothing new about the first of these substantial promises.
Thus, it can have no explanatory value.
Manmohan Singh and his economic advisors had pursued just that strategy for ‘development’ and its outcome had been foretold by every honest economist (which is not to say that there were not many more, as always with that discipline, dishonest ones): an intensification of the impoverishment and insecurity of the poor and working people of the country, and a continuing criminal transfer of the nation’s wealth to the ultra-rich corporate elites.
This is a fantasy.
Yet all classes came to believe in its efficacy even so, and this was the real achievement of the demagoguery of a charismatic leader and the crores his party acquired from the corporate elites both at home and abroad to spend on a fantastic public relations campaign that would turn a demagogue into a demigod of economic hope.
So Bilgrami's theory of politics cashes out as the paranoid belief that he himself is smart and able to see the the truth while people who live in India are stupid and in thrall to some demagogue.
Will the voter believe next year that these hopes have been fulfilled? Will she find the pathological authoritarianism tolerable? Will she embrace the open season against Muslims and Dalits as the India she wishes to live in?
We know the answer. The voter didn't believe Bilgrami's lies. Some Muslims and most Dalits voted for the BJP precisely because it was better at governance and 'last mile delivery'.
Politics is a demanding and difficult terrain. Anyone with a humane politics cannot allow the world to sober her too much. Anyone with a sensible politics cannot allow her idealism to make her politics remote and arcane. How to navigate these twin constraints, pulling in different directions, requires a sense of balance that is hard to maintain. Nothing seems more important today than maintaining it.
and writing stupid shite like this.
A humane politics is bound to answer each of the questions I posed above with a resolute ‘No’.
A humane politics would have put Bilgrami out of his misery. The sensible politics which obtains merely pays him no regard whatsoever.
But having given that answer, what sensible political options are available? Democratic politics, whether in India or elsewhere, surfaces both at the parliamentary site and at the site of movements.
No. Democratic politics works though institutions of government. It does not 'surface' anywhere. Parliaments may be purely ceremonial. Movements may be apolitical. It is a separate matter that some Democracies have well oiled party machines. But these can be rendered obsolete as recent events have shown the world over.
Let’s, first, consider the former. Hegemony surfaces in very different ways in different political systems of democracy.
Hegemony does not exist. Bilgrami is a cretin.
In two-party systems such as the United States, very often the ruling class simply spans both parties, and their differences are minor (though it is not as if they don’t often make a difference to people’s lives.)
Bilgrami has lived for a long time in America. Do any Americans consult him for political advice? No. The fellow is a cretin.
It is very hard indeed to break out of the consensus between the two parties.
Yet, Trump has done it.
And it is a symptom of how precarious the lives of working people have become in that country that they gave support to two leaders within the parties who were prepared to defy the consensus between their respective party orthodoxies. (Sanders with considerable success in the primaries even though he failed to secure the nomination, and Trump in both the primaries and the national elections–though it predictably turns out that Trump on every important issue is taking the orthodox positions of that party even further in the direction of an inhumane politics.)
The 'orthodoxy' of the Democratic Party was better represented by Biden and the early Obama. Indeed, when Bill Clinton was first elected he was an orthodox tax and spend Democrat. His U-turn towards 'Workfare' & his liking for Billionaires with bizarre agendas was what made him unorthodox. Hilary continued that trend which is why she lost to Obama- more particularly because nobody believe another boom was on the horizon. Sanders was and is un-electable and hurt Hilary so badly that Trump, quite unexpectedly, was to pick up votes which Obama had worked very hard to keep.

Trump has cut taxes and made conservative Supreme Court picks. But he is scarcely an orthodox Republican when it comes to Trade. When it comes to immigration it should be remembered that the 'deporter in chief' was Bill Clinton, followed by Bush. Obama targeted deportation more effectively at border states and ex-cons. Trump is screwing up deportation and is inflicting maximum economic harm for a minimal result. No doubt, this reflects a demographic anxiety of a type which 'orthodox' Republicans had found a workaround for long ago.

Bilgrami believes 'precariousness' motivates people to vote for 'unorthodox' candidates. The problem here is that there was far greater 'precariousness' in 2008 than in 2016. There is a theory that voters 'put a nigger in the White House' to scare Wall Street straight. If this is true, then how do we explain 'no drama Obama' getting a second term? There was more precariousness in 2012- when long term Unemployment hit a post war peak, real income had declined and people spoke of a 'Zombie economy' which was neither dead nor alive, than in 2016 when real median household income hit a peak.

It may be that anxiety of one sort or another lead people to lose faith in existing 'power elites' and causes them to vote for 'mavericks'. However, history shows that some 'insiders' do crazy shit while seemingly crazy 'outsiders'- and there was a time when Obama looked like a rank outsider with a crazy name- prove to be highly competent in improving the existing administrative and political machine, or rendering it somewhat less dysfunctional.

If Bilgrami is wrong about the country in which he lives, what of other countries of which he knows less?
Britain is not strictly a two-party system, but carries the historical weight of a two-party tradition and there again it is a symptom of how deep working-class dissatisfaction goes that both the Brexit vote and the continuing popularity of Corbyn has managed to finesse the long consensus that Blair and his successors in the party had managed to forge with post-Thatcherite Conservatives.
What on earth is this cretin getting at? Both Labor and the Conservatives are divided on Brexit. There is no consensus. However, the Liberals haven't been able to capitalize on this though they are strongly Remain. Why? They foolishly allied with Cameron, not Brown, and thus shared the blame for Tory 'Austerity'.
India, unlike these countries, is fortunate to have a thriving multi-party political system.
Where? At the Center, there have been either BJP led or Congress led Coalitions. Congress would also strategically prop up ambitious politicians who dreamed of becoming Prime Minister- but this was to show how stupid and worthless they were.

India, being a segmentary society under conditions of agricultural involution and industrial stagnation, has a history of factionalism and dynastic outfits. This has not been a blessing. What it lacks is two National parties with ideological 'clear blue water' between them.
It is to that ext­ent easier to oppose a consensual hegemony.
Nobody cares if you oppose something which does not exist. You may as well bay at the moon or practice Voodoo.
Even if major parties form a consensus, more minor and regional parties can form alliances against the consensus.
What good does this do? The Communists opposed the 123 deal with America for purely ideological reasons. Manmohan ignored them. Suddenly, they lost salience. Everyone could see they had become irrelevant. Henceforth, the consensus was that they didn't matter. Nor did their 'useful idiots'- henceforth deemed useless simply.
Fighting the consensus does not always require one to fight one’s own party’s orthodoxies as in two-party systems. The tasks in India are, thus, quite different.
No. The tasks for politicians are the same in India or the UK or the USA. They are too have sensible policies, with proper last mile delivery, and to do grassroots work. Living in America, Bilgrami may not have got the memo. But then he had never been useful. He forgot that he was a Muslim who was supposed to bleat 'Islam is in danger' anytime triple talaq was mentioned.
The idea that any one existing opposition party can, without forming alliances, defeat the BJP in 2019 is wholly without sense. A refusal to contaminate one’s idealistic and humane politics by alliances with other parties is not sensible, it is a recipe for a party’s eventual dem­ise.
Who is Bilgrami talking to? Which party has 'idealistic and humane politics'? Congress? It is a corrupt, incompetent, dynastic outfit. What of the Samajwadi parties? They are corrupt, incompetent, dynastic outfits. Mamta's Trinamool too is now dynastic, corrupt, incompetent and criminalized. Perhaps Bilgrami is talking to the Communist parties. But they won't listen to 'fellow travelers' because they, by definition, have not grasped the right ideology and thus acquired the right praxis.. At best, they are 'useful idiots' whose function is to spread Communist lies.
Thus, for instance, it is becoming clear that some parties (the CPI-M, for instance) will bec­ome irrelevant for decades to come if they don’t seek to exert their (already dwindling influence) through alliances.
We now know the outcome of this strategy. The CPI-M has been decimated. It got 5 seats- 4 with the help of its Tamil partner. But it will lose those next time round. After all, the name of the next C.M of T.N is actually Stalin!

In Kerala, Congress has gained at the expense of the Communist party by tactically opposing Sabarimala Temple entry for women. This has enabled Rahul to stay in Parliament. But for how long?

The Communists were foolish to follow a 'popular front' strategy based on a false equation between the BJP and the Nazi party. But, that popular front policy had failed in the Thirties itself! What they needed to do was to present themselves as a clean, meritocratic, cadre based party similar to the RSS backed BJP. By playing footsie with dynasts and opposing things like the 123 deal for purely ideological reasons, they dug their own graves. Still, where the Communists- or any other party- has done 'last mile delivery', they can survive. This is because 'hegemony' does not exist. All that matters is actual governance.
To some extent, this common sense has finally emerged and parties seem to be seeking such alliances. But equally, such a sensible politics must throughout be guided by a humane politics and not embrace these sensible alliances at the cost of it. What does that imply?
Nothing. Common sense leads effective leaders to have humane policies because voters are human beings.
There is an obvious lesson to be learnt from the period of the Emergency and its aftermath.
If it is obvious, Bilgrami can't learn it because his profession is stupidity.
Opposition alliances emerged then with an exclusively negative purpose. It would be wrong to dismiss them as opportunistic since the purpose was a worthy one then (as it is now): to overturn an intolerably authoritarian regime. But such victories as that opposition achieved were short-lived and in fact, as we know, it suffered an utterly crushing defeat at the hands of Indira Gandhi’s Congress in 1980 for the very plain reason that it stood for nothing positive over and above opposition to a previously authoritarian Congress government.
The Janata Morcha fell on the issue of dual membership of the RSS. The lesson to be learned is that the RSS is not a Fascist outfit. It is wrong to stigmatize it. Out of the various splinters of the Janata coalition, it was the RSS backed Bharatiya Janata Party which emerged as the most professional and faction free option.
And the situation is far worse today because nobody would describe that Congress government as relying on anything like the Gramscian hegemony that the current government and the class it represents enjoy.
By Gramscian hegemony, Bilgrami means that the BJP is doing a good job. It is meritocratic and faction free. Congress is in disarray because Rahul is a cretin and so his Mummy has had to take over once again.
In fact, the Emergency was declared out of an anxiety that such hegemony was precisely what it did not have.
Nonsense! It was declared because the Allahabad High Court had rendered Indira Gandhi's election null and void because of misuse of government machinery for her election campaign. She would have had to step down.
That leaves one with the absolutely alarming eventual prospect of another 1980-style outcome in the future. If the rec­ently emerging opposition alliances do succeed next year, it would be a scary prospect to imagine the kind of ­hegemony a subsequent returning BJP government might have after the ineffectual rule of a government formed by an alliance of parties with no positive platform apart from ending the nightmare of the past four years.
There was no nightmare. Some useful idiots went around repeating stupid lies. But no one was listening.
It becomes a matter of some urgency, therefore, that an election should be fought by a set of alliances at the national and regional levels with a common, positive, hum­ane ­platform which can carry conviction.
Platforms don't matter. What matters is expectations re. ability to deliver good governance and needful reforms.

Alliances aren't a good thing. It is better if there is a clear chain of command and that incentive compatibility obtains- i.e. when an order is given, it is in the interest of the person tasked with a job to actually do that job well.
To draw and erect such a platform requires a lot of enormously hard work, a great deal of tact and resolution and vision, and a leadership in each party of each alliance that fetches respect and has authority.
Also one should be kind to animals and nice to the environment.
I can just hear the sneering dismissal of all this by the orthodoxies within the Congress.
Nobody was listening to Bilgrami. Why bother sneering at this imbecile?
What positive common programme will suffice? It is here I think that the parliamentary site of politics has to pay attention to what is surfacing on the site of movements and provide a sort of unifying force in a common and integrated electoral platform of the causes that they reflect.
There was an anti-corruption movement which became a quite successful political party. Other movements which did not morph into political parties fell by the wayside.
Only such a conscientious effort to integrate in the electoral field seemingly miscellaneous yearnings surfacing on the street and the maidan has any chance of getting the support of a massively heterogenous electorate with its prodigiously varied interests.
No. Only a conscientious effort to improve governance- 'last mile delivery' in particular- will get you elected.
In my country of domicile, such attentiveness to causes emerging on non-parliamentary sites was the basis of virtually every fundamental and effective change in society: to give just two examples, FDR’s attentiveness to the demands of the labour movements of the 1930s and Lyndon Johnson’s acknowledgement of the civil rights movement.
Both were already in power. FDR's policies failed to end the Depression. LBJ ended up helping the Republican 'Southern strategy'. Both the Labor Movement and the Civil Rights Movement had an explicitly political strategy and operated through caucuses within political parties.  Bilgrami writes as though FDR & LBJ were making anthropological discoveries while exploring submerged portions of society.
So also, Sanders’s remarkable success in the Democratic primaries was entirely because of the energy that went into bringing together quite diverse ongoing causes in movements, ranging from the protests around post-financial crisis unemployment and wage stagnation to the protest against foreclosures of homes, to the students’ protests against the costs of higher education, and the mobilisations of millions marginalised on the health care front. Something similar lies in Corbyn’s success.
But, both failed. Corbyn has paved the way for BoJo's no-deal Brexit which will reduce protection for workers. Sanders hurt Hilary enough to open the door to Trump.
The recent farmers and workers rallies in Maharashtra and in the north (and last November in Delhi) and the adivasis’ recent long march in Chhattisgarh, the repeated and remarkable Dalit display of political agency over the past few years against the recurring violence they face,
were important and were addressed by the administration. Not so the bogus student activism of sclerotic Socialist parties-
the courageous and brilliant students’ campaigns against the communal elements on campus,
failed completely because they were obviously careerist and partisan
the women’s protest against rampant sexual violence,
failed because women would not vote for Kiran Bedi who was prepared to tackle the underlying problem.
are all causes that need to be integrated into a common platform speaking to the issues that concern labour and peasantry and the youth, women and the oppressed castes.
But this won't change the fact that Hindus are a majority and they don't like people who shit on their religion- or who have chums who do.

It is true that Muslims have in recent years not shown the mobilisational agency that Dalits have shown and that they themselves showed in the immediate aftermath of the destruction of the mosque in Ayodhya.
Muslims need to take the lead in putting together coalitions rather than playing second fiddle. Look at the Kerala Muslim League. We should get to vote for smart Muslims who aim to be C.M and then P.M on the basis of their achievements not their loyalty, or lack of it, to a dynastic patron.

Bilgrami thinks Indian Muslims are cowards- stupid cowards- who don't get that if they present an abject appearance then they will be trampled. On the other hand, if they show they continue to be courageous, smart, enterprising and have a lot to contribute to cleaning up politics and the bureaucracy, then no external enemy or internal dissension can hold the country back.
In the face of the viciousness of the almost daily attacks on them (sanctioned tacitly by the very presence of BJP in positions of power at the Centre and the regions), they have gone entirely into their shells.
If this were true, there would be something drastically wrong with the way Indians are practicing Islam. It is a rational religion which upholds 'hubb al watan min al iman'. It is progressive and law abiding. No doubt, laws differ in different places but this does not pose a problem for Muslims anymore than it does for Hindus or Christians or anybody else.
They need particularly deliberate inclusion, therefore, in forging such a common platform. Above all, any common agenda that doesn’t offer a serious pro­gra­mme of uplifting the poor through food schemes, employment schemes (both of which were started in small measure under UPA-I) and extending to health and housing schemes, will never have any chance of long-term success against the domination of the BJP.
So, not only are Indian Muslims abject cowards, they are also starving and unable to feed themselves or treat their own illnesses. Would it surprise Bilgrami to discover that Indian Muslims are hardworking, thrifty and very successful in STEM subjects including Medicine? Why pretend their Religion- or faith in The Creator- has turned them into a starving, frightened, isolated community who need to be led by the hand?
Islam was ahead, not behind, other Religions is rejecting Marxist stupidity. Only the Chinese pretend that Muslims need to be 're-educated' by the kindhearted goons of the Communist Party.

Ole Peters & why Ergodicity Econ is shite

In Economics, Income is defined as what you can spend without depleting your Wealth and Wealth is defined as the set of assets which generates your current Income. We may be indifferent between different combinations of goods and services which yield the same Utility. Subtract Depreciation of Assets used to generate Income and we have a vector which represents our Real Income. This is by no means easy to measure. When relative prices change, which happens when goods and services become more or less scarce, there is a substitution effect but, because substitutes may be imperfect, there is also an Income effect. Some may be worse off though overall prosperity seems to have increased. Sometimes, we feel the pinch because we are not used to a substitute which, later, we are more happy with. Thus, in the long run, apparent falls in Real Income turn out to be blessings in disguise because they got us to change our behavior and use new goods and services which are superior. In general, there is a 'Laspeyres bias' such that we underestimate growth in Income.

Different types of Wealth have different impact on Income. A more secure asset may generate less Income while some prestigious assets may reduce money income because of their upkeep, yet they may have a reputational effect or create a psychic benefit such that they still count as wealth.

In general, it is in our interest to prefer the Technology, indeed to prefer the Preferences (i.e. have 'meta-preferences') such that the Wealth to Income ratio is lowest.  This means we prefer cheaper and more efficient types of assets. Also we don't necessarily want an asset whose life-time is much longer than ours unless we can raise money on it or use it to give a contingent gift to family or charity etc. This is because we can die at any time. We don't want to have foregone too much consumption just for prudential reasons or because of a mental pathology like that of the miser. Furthermore, though change is difficult (especially as one grows older!), it is often a good thing in itself because it enables us to make other changes in our own attitudes and outlook. This is particularly true about changes which use new technology and which reduce depreciation and thus make development environmentally, socially and humanly sustainable.

It is important to understand that Income and Wealth- like the Utility we gain from the former, when we Consume rather than Save, or the sense of Security we gain from the latter- are finite and bounded. They involve scarce resources. They can't go to infinity. If they could, there would be no scarcity. Whoever has infinite Wealth or Income can endow everyone else with infinite Wealth or Income. Scarcity would have ceased to exist. We would be living in a Fantasy land. Economics would be empty.

All this is common sense. But not to a silly maths maven named Ole Peters who  introduces 'a montonically increasing function of wealth, which we call suggestively u(x).' This is foolish. Utility is not a function of wealth or Income. It is a function of Consumption. If I buy and eat a cake, I get utility. If I save for a cake making machine, I may end up having more cake but I get no utility till I actually eat one of the cakes, or sell one of the cakes and buy something else, produced by the cake making machine.

Ole Peters & Co claim-
we are able to interpret different utility functions as encoding different non-ergodic dynamics and remove the element of human irrationality from the explanation of basic economic behavior. 
This is very stupid goobledegook. A utility function maps consumption choices onto consumer satisfaction. It encodes facts about our physiology and our preferences which are given biologically and psychologically. It is not the case that we can change our physiology when Economic circumstances change. If this happened, we would go on splitting into different species.

Production and Asset creation could be considered to represent dynamic systems. A 'non-ergodic dynamic' means something which is 'path dependent'- i.e. current actions are governed by those which went before. In general this is irrational. We don't throw good money after bad. Just because we made a mistake last time round, we don't repeat it hoping to change the outcome. Instead we look at our options afresh- maybe glance around to see what the smart people are doing- and then make a decision. In this sense, Economics- as the science of Choice under Scarcity- is ergodic, i.e. not path dependent. Even if some people are irrational, the entry and exist of agents into markets means that ergodicity prevails at the margin. People aren't robots or meat machines following a pre-determined path.

Peters' claim is meaningless shit.

The axioms he uses are
1)  Human behavior can be understood. It follows a rationale and is in that sense rational. 
This is nonsense. Billiard balls aren't rational. We can understand their behavior. Human beings can be rational- i.e. they reason about things. However, if humans evolved on an uncertain fitness landscape, then there would be survival value in unpredictability so as to baffle a predator or parasite. Thus, there is a fallacy of composition in saying 'if humans are rational, their behavior must be predictable or deterministic'. It is perfectly possible for human rationality to involve non-deterministic algorithms. These could have 'univalent foundations' with an appropriate type theoretic class of intensional objects. In other words, it has a mathematical representation of an idiosyncratic type or one with intractably many degrees of freedom. At the 'macro' level, we can speak of 'Muth Rationality'- aggregates behave as if all agents have the 'correct' economic theory and a common information set- but this is like an Aumann correlated equilibrium with appropriate public signals.

Economics is the science of rational choice under scarcity. If there is no scarcity or rationality is not used in making the choice, Economics is out of place. There are many areas of life when it would be repugnant to be calculating in one's approach. Treating the matter as 'economic' would represent a lack of humanity. Families would break down if sexual reproduction were reduced to prostitution. National defense and Law & Order would cease to be effective if soldiers and police officers acted on the basis of a self-interested Utilitarian calculus. The Business Enterprise, which internalises externalities, would unwind into a multitude of adhesion contracts. Productivity would collapse.

All this is well known- if not blindingly obvious- yet Ole Peters & Co have this as their second axiom-
2) Humans make decisions in a manner that would optimise the time-average growth rate of wealth, were those decisions to be repeated indefinitely.
This is mad. To optimize wealth growth we should live like misers who were also immortal. In reality, if it is worthwhile, we should try to find that wealth configuration which has the lowest ratio to Real Income. Indeed, that's what happens. We prefer assets which are more efficient and less costly because they generate more Real Income.
In our treatment, decisions are choices between different stochastic processes, not choices between different random variables as is usually the case in decision theory
The problem here is that Knightian Uncertainty obtains. We don't know what stochastic processes obtain nor how they are combined.

Moreover, we don't know what is or isn't wealth, let alone what its growth rate is. This is because the future is unknown. There may be a Revolution or breakdown of Law & Order such that having a type of wealth gets you tortured or killed. Gilt edged securities could turn out to be worthless- as Tzarist bonds turned out to be worthless.

Instead of maximizing utility, the proper response to Uncertainty is 'regret minimization'- e.g. Hannan Consistent type hedging. We know that there may be a catastrophic outcome but would feel less regret if our actions were justified and prudent and had other admirable qualities such that, at the end, there is nothing we can really reproach ourselves with. We would also want to hedge our bets by not following the herd in some matters and developing non-transferable assets which are not material- things like moral character, aesthetic or intellectual distinction, piety and religious faith.

Ole Peters & Co look not at economics, which is about scarcity and real life, but 'chrematistics'- financial alchemy- which can be wholly fraudulent. However, it can has a political, or distributional, aspect. A War, a Revolution, or a hyperinflation caused by political conflict, can have a dramatic effect on 'chrematistics' while the real economy is scarcely touched. It is perfectly possible for financial wealth to disappear while the real economy grows very rapidly.

Ole Peters says he has a new approach which yields the same results as expected utility theory but which is superior because

The range of questions we can answer in this way is surprising to us. Examples are: how does an investor choose the leverage of an investment ? How can we resolve the St. Petersburg paradox ? How can we resolve the equity premium puzzle ? Why do people choose to cooperate ? Why do insurance contracts exist ? How can we make sense of the recent changes in observed economic inequality? Do economic systems change from one phase to another under different tax regimes? 
There is no St. Petersburg paradox- it is merely silly and can be resolved linguistically- or better still, it can be ignored as evidence of the imbecility of pedagogues.

 Nor is there any equity premium puzzle- it assumes something Samuel Butler noticed 150 years ago - viz. the incentive structure of the agent making the portfolio choice, not the beneficial owner, is what matters. Unfortunately, this is not empirifically verifiable. Still, only stupid academics puzzle over it. But they have a history of puzzling over utter shite.

Non Economists could already give superior answers to Academic Economists on all the other questions.

Consider the following statement from Ole Peter's blog. It is pure gobbledegook.

In the setting of decisions under uncertainty, optimizing appropriate growth rates can be mapped to Laplace’s expected utility theory, (which is worked out in Peters&Gell-Mann(2016)and inspired the Copenhagen experiment).
If decisions are made under Knightian uncertainty then we don't what possible states of the world are. We don't know if growth has occurred because we don't know whether Wealth has decreased. Thus, currently, we don't know if we really have grown our economy over the last hundred years. It may turn out that there are no substitutes of fossil fuel and that our current Global Income is not sustainable. We were actually burning through our Wealth, not growing at all.

Similarly, if an asteroid hits us in a couple of years, we would say no actual Growth occurred because we ought to have been building an anti-asteroid defense system. Failure to do so meant we were burning through our wealth- not growing at all.

As a matter of fact, Governments and Markets do get juiced about growth rates and some people may pretend to have 'optimized' them. But people also get juiced about all sorts of crazy shit. Some silly mathematicians can be relied on to turn up and talk some gobbledegook to make the thing look plausible. Since they don't have any professional qualifications, they can't be done for fraud if they talk up a Madoff.

Peters & Gell-Mann think 'a gamble' has a certain structure which, in the real world, it does not. Essentially, if a person offers a gamble with positive expected value, then it is irrational to expect that he can pay under all circumstances. Furthermore, coalitions can be formed to drive the gambler to bankruptcy. It is not the case that anyone has infinite wealth.

Consider their definition of Gamble- A gamble is a set of possible changes in monetary wealth ∆W(n) with associated probabilities pn(n), where n are integers designating events. For convenience, we order events such that ∆W(n + 1) > ∆W(n).

N is unknown. We don't know and can't even imagine all the possible events that might occur. There may even be a non zero chance that some of the money in my pocket will spontaneously turn into a rabbit. Thus, the only thing we can say about 'Gambles' is we all take them all the time but don't know what they are and have no way of ever finding out.


Peters & Gell-Mann also don't get why utility functions must be bounded. If this weren't true we'd either be immortal and/or have no need for decision theory. There would be a direct means to gain infinite utility.

Thus these two silly fellows have invented a type of economics which does not have Knightian uncertainty and either assumes immortality or so direct way to gain infinite utility not dependent on economic decisions. Notice that if utility is transferable, then one person who gains infinite utility can give infinite utility to everyone else. Economics disappears because there is no scarcity.

Why do these two idiots think any economic growth rate can 'contain' a utility function which goes to infinity? This assumes that there is some contingency such that no scarcity exists. Why not simply say 'Laplace's theory, not Bernoulli's, allows everybody to be immortal and to enjoy infinite happiness? Though no God is required for this hypothesis, yet we could be as Gods!'

Now let us turn to this 'Copenhagen Experiment'- it is merely a game with a particular structure which has no connection with the real world.
Each subject, in an experiment that spanned two days, engaged in a gambling paradigm with either additive or multiplicative wealth dynamics. At the start of each day endowed with an initial wealth of 1000DKK / ~$155 (Fig. 1a), after which they took part in a passive session during which they had an opportunity to learn, via observation, the deterministic effect of fractal stimuli on their endowed wealth (Fig. 1b). On the additive day (Day+ ) the fractals caused additive changes in wealth whereas on the multiplicative day (Day´ ) the fractals caused multiplicative changes to their endowed wealth (eqs. 1-5, Supp. Fig. 1). Having repeatedly observed these contingencies, subjects subsequently engaged in an active session during which they chose between gambles composed of the same fractals (Fig. 1c, eqs. 6-9). There were four sessions in total per subject, Passive´ and Active´ occurring on Day´ ; and Passive+ and Active+ occurring on Day+ . We adopted three complementary analysis strategies. The first is model-independent in the sense that we tested whether choice frequencies change according to gamble dynamics. The second and third approaches were model-dependent insofar as we formally compare theoretical models of utility in terms of their parameter estimates, and in terms of the predictive adequacy of each utility model.
What is this shit supposed to prove? People learn to use different strategies when the game varies. But that game captures nothing about Reality. These cretins assume something which isn't true about the world and then say 'if the world were like we say it is, then people would act the way we say they will because we can rig up an experiment where we pay people to play along for a couple of days.' The problem is that they then run out of grant money to pay their lab rats who go back to the real world and behave completely differently.

The imbecile, Ole Peters, thinks this 'Copenhagen Experiment' confirms that the-
The growth rate contains a function that we can identify with the utility function in Laplace’s theory (not in Bernoulli’s expected utility theory, which is inconsistent).
If you rig things in advance and pay people to play a game, you can prove anything you like. Laplace and Bernoulli weren't economists. They were laying the foundations of Probability theory which may be used by Decision theory but which is not itself that theory. Bernoulli was simply asserting a common sense notion of diminishing marginal utility- i.e. the notion that beyond a certain point, more of something produces smaller and smaller increments of pleasure till satiation is reached. Peters, cretin that he is, thinks this is wrong- utility can be infinite!
In other words: ergodicity economics unifies different branches of decision theory (including intertemporal discounting and expected utility theory) into one concept: growth rate maximization.
No! It is worthless gibberish.  Gell-Mann was a smart guy- in his field. In Economics he was a senile shithead. As for Peters, I suppose he is a child of his age.

Consider the following from his blog-
a null model of human behavior must be that people maximize the growth rate of their wealth.
Right! Coz people don't eat food or need to buy clothes. They just maxmize the growth rate of their wealth! Which planet does this cretin live on?
That means they do different things, depending on the dynamics. Let’s fix \Delta t for a moment. Under additive dynamics they’ll then optimize \Delta x, under multiplicative dynamics they’ll optimize \Delta \ln x, and under general dynamics \Delta u(x).
Sure. If you say 'a null model of human behavior is that they do whatever crazy shit my model says they do' then everything else follows.
So people optimize the change in a generally non-linear function of wealth… that’s utility theory, and that’s why we called the non-linear transformation u.
That's not utility theory. It is some crazy shit you cooked up. People don't want to maximize wealth. They know they will die. The plan is to have enough to enjoy your retirement and maybe leave a bit for your kids. This may mean you get a sports-car and a second wife in your fifties because that's better than being on a cruise ship with your first wife while in your seventies. People make trade-offs like this all the time. What they don't do is 'optimize the change in a generally non-linear function' which only exists in the imagination of some shithead.
Turns out, this has less to do with your idiosyncratic psychology and more to do with the dynamic to which your wealth is subjected.
Why does it turn out this way? The answer is because this shithead has a 'null model' of an utterly crazy type which says you and everybody else will always behave in an utterly crazy way.
I’ll leave the extension of this treatment to a random environment as an exercise. Hint: in a deterministic environment, growth rates are constant in time. In a random environment they are ergodic (that’s why at the London Mathematical Laboratory we don’t say “utility function” but “ergodicity mapping”).
So if this crazy bed-bug had said 'the null model is that human beings turn into werewolves at a rate which depends on the rapidity of the lunar cycle' then- in a deterministic environment, that rate will be constant- e.g. every 28 days. In a random environment, where full moons can occur at any time, the London Mathematical Laboratory would gas on about your 'ergodicity mappings' to being a werewolf.

Wednesday, 14 August 2019

Mukul Kesavan on Article 370

Mukul Kesavan has an article in Scroll.in which attempts to refute 'Liberal arguments' in favor of the Union Government's recent actions in J&K
The obvious problem with these arguments is that they were not concerned with the means by which these ends were to be achieved.
This is not true. Liberals uphold the Rule of Law. If there has been any illegality in what the Government has done, then Liberals would question it and the Courts would take remedial action.
The telecommunications blackout, the continuous curfew, the lack of consultation, the pre-emptive arrests of political leaders, the shotgun pellet injuries reported, were ignored, regretted in passing or justified as the necessary cost of moving quickly to maintain the advantage of surprise.
Each of these measures has been used in the past. Failure to take such measures could have resulted in a bloodbath. It may be that there are some actions being taken which are unnecessary or unfair. Those actions should be investigated and over zealous officials should be punished.
Such concern as these commentators did express was raised perfunctorily and in passing: the hope that this state of collective, muted house arrest would not last longer than was necessary.
This was perfectly reasonable. Commentators are not important because, like Kesavan himself, they are as stupid as shit and nobody cares about their opinions or feelings. Kesavan may feel that the concerns he himself is expressing represent anything more than a perfunctory reflex of virtue signalling. Nobody else does. Rather they find his article useful only for the purpose of understanding why Indian 'public intellectuals' are so utterly useless. The reason is that they are unable to reason.
The airlifting of troops and the incarceration of an entire population in peace-time,
Kashmir is a border state which has faced repeated aggression. There is nothing objectionable to air-lifting troops there. The entire population has not been incarcerated. Some politicians have been put under house arrest or preventive detention.
Kesavan is telling stupid obvious lies.
glossed over by raison d’etat realists in the name of the nation, ironically made the operation seem more like an imperial annexation than an assertion of national sovereignty.
How things seem to Kesavan has no significance whatsoever because he is a cretin. The wonder is that he isn't babbling about Nazi storm-troopers or screaming and shitting himself about the the Spanish Inquisition.

The Government of India has a duty to defend the territorial integrity of the country and to keep its citizens safe- regardless of their religion. This is what Amit Shah has done and he has received great praise for it.
The second elision was the willingness of these commentators to accept the legitimacy of the government’s legal manoeuvre without considering its political and constitutional implications.
The Supreme Court does not seem to think there are any constitutional implications. That is why they have not listed the matter for urgent consideration. The political implications are good for Jammu and Ladakh. It remains to be seen whether it will be good for the Valley. However, internal and external security are likely to improve. 
Any precedent that allows a central government to abolish a state under President’s rule and reincarnate it as a Union Territory via presidential proclamation and simple majorities in the upper and lower house of Parliament, needs more scrutiny than a thumbs-up for ingenuity. The likelihood that this move will be tested in the Supreme Court should not be an alibi for kicking the issue down the road.
Yet there is no other constitutional remedy. Kesavan may believe that 'liberals' should spend prolonged periods of time screaming and shitting themselves but even if they did so only a nuisance would be created.
If the state of Jammu and Kashmir, hedged about as it was with special constitutional protections, can be reduced to a Union Territory through a constitutional sleight of hand, what prevents a central government from imposing President’s rule in West Bengal and then, with a pliant governor’s assent, bifurcating the state into the Union Territories of Gorkhaland and Dakkhin Bengal? Or Kerala into the Union Territories of Malabar and Travancore?
Nothing. The Government did bifurcate Andhra Pradesh though its Legislature was against it. Kesavan may not like it but the Indian Constitution does not permit the majority in a State from ethnically cleansing a minority. Even purely economic grievances have to be resolved such that minorities are not exploited or ignored.
Even if – in fact especially if – the Supreme Court were to sign off on the constitutionality of the government’s legal manouevre, a raison d’etat realist concerned about the national interest would assess the trade-off between re-making Kashmir and de-stabilising the Centre-state balance that underwrites this union of states.
Sadly, Dr. Ambedkar and the other framers of the Constitution chose to make India a unitary, not a federal, structure. A State is whatever the Union Government chooses, for reasons of administrative convenience, to be a state. There has been a continuous process of State reorganization based on linguistic and other considerations.

Thus, no 'trade off' exists.

For a liberal supporter, the most embarrassing thing about the reasons for reading down 370 was that they were pro-consular arguments.
Liberals should scream and shit themselves constantly. That wouldn't be embarrassing for them at all.

Kesavan may not like it, but the President of India has a duty to defend minorities and maintain the integrity of the Republic. This is not a 'pro-consular' argument because it does not involve the conquest and subjugation of foreign territory.
They accepted that the people of Jammu and Kashmir had to be coercively excluded from a decision that transformed their lives.
If the majority of the people in a State want to kill or chase away the minority, they must be coercively excluded from doing so. India is a Democracy under the Rule of Law. 
The average Sangh supporter might embrace this position since it is consistent with his view of restive frontier populations as subjects to be disciplined, not citizens to be consulted, but it isn’t a comfortable stance for a commentator whose public persona is neither authoritarian nor majoritarian.
To get comfortable, such commentators should scream and shit themselves incessantly.

Kesavan thinks these commentators are important. Their every pronouncement is dissected and analysed. Then 'charges' are framed against them. Thus to show they are neither 'authoritarian' nor 'majoritarian' it is vital that they scream and shit themselves. Failure to do so will lead them to falling into the hands of some Liberal version of the Spanish Inquisition.
For these liberals a useful way of deflecting the charge that they were advocating a colonial re-making of Kashmir was to argue that it was a mistake to conflate the districts of the Kashmir valley with the districts that made up the state of Jammu and Kashmir. Building on this point these commentators cited the populations of Jammu and Ladakh as equal stake-holders in J&K’s future and argued that they were enthusiastic supporters of the abolition of 370 and the re-ordering of the state’s political geography.
They may be even more enthusiastic supporters of becoming the 51st state of the United States of America. But, that option is not on offer. Being a State in the Union of India is a privilege not a right. A badly run State can be degraded to a Union Territory so that the police become independent of corrupt or criminialised politicians.
Implicitly (and often explicitly), Jammu and Ladakh were used as placeholders for “Hindu” and “Buddhist”. The bifurcation of the state is celebrated as the liberation of a Buddhist region from the overbearing Muslim politics of Kashmir’s valley. It’s worth pointing out here – if only because this fact has been glossed over so often in political commentary in recent days – that Buddhists are not the largest religious community in Ladakh. That would be Muslims who account for 46% of Ladakh’s population. Buddhists make up 40% of Ladakh’s population. 
But Hindus comprise the rest and Hindus revere Buddhism. It has never been the case that Hindu temples exclude Buddhists or vice versa.
Ladakh is made up of two districts, Kargil and Leh, which are predominantly Muslim and Buddhist respectively. The majority alluded to in recent commentary is, in fact, not a Buddhist majority but a Buddhist-Hindu majority, a civilisational coalition harnessed in recent times to do in South Asia the ideological work that Judeo-Christian has done for decades elsewhere.
Bullshit! It is a fact that many of the great Buddhist savant-Saints were of Brahman origin. Buddhist Kings- like the present monarch of Thailand- employ Brahman purohits.

What 'ideological work' has the term 'Judeo-Christian' done? Christians massacred and ethnically cleansed Jews. It is a separate matter that ever since the 6 day War, many Evangelical Christians in America have become strong supporters of Israel. This does not mean they have any great liking for Jews- whom they consider to be Liberals.
In a democracy, political opinions shouldn’t be read off a region’s religious demography; they should be expressed in a legislative assembly.
This has been done. However, if the legislature in a State or Union Territory is dysfunctional, President's rule can be imposed. No State has any vestige of sovereignty in itself- as the Supreme Court has clarified with respect to J&K.
Since Jammu and Kashmir’s assembly stands dissolved and replaced by President’s rule, these commentators must necessarily endorse the government’s ingenious thesis that the governor of the state can be a proxy for its legislative assembly and, by extension, its people.
It is the Supreme Court which has clarified this. Commentators don't matter. They can say anything that comes into their heads. The Supreme Court is the only authority which can interpret the Constitution in a manner that has the force of Law.
Commentary of this sort can be plausibly produced and consumed only by green-screening the political context in which 370 was gutted.
God alone knows what Kesavan is getting at. The plain fact is that commentators are shit. Every asshole can produce commentary. Kesavan is welcome to consume this shit. Nobody else will.
The political context for this abolition is the BJP’s concerted attempt to discipline and diminish Indian Muslims.
This is Kesavan's view- but he is too stupid and ignorant to be able to come up with a plausible narrative for other people to consider.

I may believe that Kesavan spends his time screaming and shitting himself and this is the reason that he writes like shit. However, my belief is not plausible because if Kesavan really were incessantly screaming and shitting himself he would have achieved far greater fame. There would be documentaries about him. Doctors would speak of a 'Kesavan syndrome' and speculate as to its aetiology. Ramachandra Guha would get jealous and shit himself to death in a vain attempt to outdo our hero. 
T
Should the Citizenship Amendment Bill be passed by Parliament (as it likely will), and should the National Register become an all India Inquisition with a cell in every state (as Amit Shah has promised), all citizens will be required to document their claim to citizenship, but only Muslims will be proceeded against should they fail to satisfy the National Register of Citizens because non-Muslims will have been amnestied by the provisions of the Citizenship Amendment Bill.
This is perfectly reasonable. Non-Muslims were ethnically cleansed and thus are refugees or the descendants of refugees. Muslims were not ethnically cleansed. They are not refugees or the descendants of refugees. 

The nonchalance that marked the lynching of Muslim men in the name of cow protection was matched by the lewd enthusiasm with which a BJP chief minister and BJP legislators read the abolition of 370 as a sign that Kashmiri women were now available to North Indian men.
What the Harayana CM said was in the context of restoring the states sex-ratio by pro-women schemes.

 He said- 
Earlier Haryana was infamous for female infanticide, but after the Beti Bachao Beti Padhao Abhiyan, the sex ratio has gone up from 850 to 933 girls per 1,000 boys. Our minister O.P. Dhankad had said that we’ll need to bring daughters-in-law from Bihar. Now some people are saying Kashmir has been opened, we can bring girls from Kashmir also. Jokes apart, if [sex] ratio is fine, then there will be balance in society.”


He has clarified that he was saying it was the State's responsibility to fix the underlying problem by pursuing pro-women policies. It was absurd to think girls could be brought from elsewhere.

Given this context it shouldn’t be hard for a dispassionate observer to see that the dissolution of India’s single Muslim-majority state is a majoritarian government’s way of bringing a recalcitrant Muslim population to heel.
A dispassionate observer would note that Muslim majorities have ethnically cleansed non-Muslims in the region. They would see that only the Valley is Muslim majority. However, for economic reasons, it is still yoked to Hindu majority Jammu. Thus the Union Territory of J&K will still be Muslim majority. However, local politicians won't be able to use the police to terrorize Hindus.

Kashmir Valley, in the Nineties, witnessed ethnic cleansing of Hindu Pandits.  Clearly, steps have to be taken to protect minorities in that region. India is democratic, it is true, but it is a Democracy under the Rule of Law. If the local politicians subvert the police force, then that function should be taken away from them.
That so many of these commentators manage to unsee the elephant in the room should worry their readers.
Why? Commentators are worthless fools. We read them to make fun of them.

Commentators supportive of the government’s evisceration of 370 but keen to establish their secular credentials danced a three-step minuet: they started by calling out the BJP’s motives in dissolving the one Muslim majority state in the Union as communal; they then laid out the benefits that the dissolution would, nevertheless, bring, and concluded by urging the BJP to manage the transition wisely by setting aside its communal agenda.
It doesn't matter if they danced a minuet or performed bharat natyam. Nobody gives a shit about these shitheads.
This is disingenuous. If you endorse a majoritarian government’s stealthy sleight of hand in gutting Section 370, you endorse the means that it will use because everything in its history and the history of Kashmir tells you that collective brutality will follow. You can’t let a wolf into a pen and then urge it to act like a collie.
If you don't endorse a legal move by a democratic government you are saying that there is a defect in the Constitution. You would then need to make a proper legal argument. Screaming and shitting yourself won't cut it.

Nirupama Menon Rao, formerly foreign secretary and now a passionate advocate of Amit Shah’s initiative, wrote a column justifying it that ended with these lines: “Kashmir must be drawn away from the precipice, with humane and judicious calibration, bringing the prodigal back into the family fold. We must borrow from both Kautilya and post-Kalinga Ashoka.” This mess of mangled metaphors, cliché and pedantry, written up in High Babu, is the strain of having it both ways starting to show.
In the opinion of another Babu who babbles about minuets.
Christine Fair, a South Asian strategic studies specialist, was an early supporter of the government’s move on social media and more recently wrote an essay setting out her understanding of the issue. Her conclusion is similar to Rao’s, only more exhortatory:
  “If India genuinely wants to mainstream Kashmiris, this effort cannot begin and end with this legal sleight of hand. India must follow through with the various commitments to develop the state and to extend all of the rights of privileges of Indian citizenship to the residents. Should it fail to do so, Pakistan will be loitering like a hyena waiting to pounce upon the injured carcass of Kashmir.” 
Fair’s itemisation of the government of India’s responsibilities towards Kashmiris is unreal. A government that is about to amend a law to smuggle in a religious test for citizenship that targets Muslims across India isn’t likely to commit itself to vesting Kashmiri Muslims with the “…rights of privileges [sic] of Indian citizenship…” Besides, Kashmir-as-carcass makes Pakistan’s intentions moot: a carcass, injured or otherwise, is dead.
So Kesavan wants India to give up Kashmir. Why does he not say so? Is he afraid that someone might bring a petition to a Magistrate asking for Kesavan to be tried for sedition?

It is a fact that Hindus and Buddhists have been ethnically cleansed from Muslim majority areas. They are refugees or descendants of refugees and should be granted citizenship because they can't safely return to their place of origin. This is not the case with Muslim economic migrants.

No Muslim from Kerala or Kashmir faces any similar bar to citizenship. Why? Their place of origin is within the Union of India. 
Scholars, intellectuals and public figures intervening in policy controversies deserve our attention. Kuldeep Nayar is remembered for his opposition to the Emergency. Nikhil Wagle’s consistent critique of the criminalisation of Maharashtra’s politics has a place of honour in the history of Indian journalism. Gauri Lankesh is a larger than life figure today because she was murdered for her commitment to free speech and a secular politics. The dark side has its own heroes. There’s no shortage of Indians queueing up for a star in Hindutva’s Hall of Fame. The ranks of Modi’s willing enablers are massively oversubscribed. As the old classified ads might have put it, “Liberals need not apply.”
What about M.J Akbar? He was a more important figure than Wagle or Lankesh. Furthemore, he was elected to Parliament on a Congress ticket. He doesn't seem to be doing too badly in Modi's Government. If he falls it will not be because of his Religion.

Tuesday, 13 August 2019

More goo from Guha

Ramachandra Guha is a historian who can't mention any historical event without getting his facts wrong. Consider this dreck he has published in the Hindustan Times-
The first major political crime committed in the Valley occurred exactly 66 years ago.
A crime is an unlawful act. A political crime is an unlawful act whose purpose is political.
In August 1953, the elected chief minister of Jammu and Kashmir, Sheikh Abdullah, was deposed from his position, and sent to prison.
Deposition was a lawful act of the Government of Kashmir & its Head of State, the Sadar-i-Riyasat, Karan Singh (who seems to approve Modi's recent masterstroke) because Abdullah had lost the confidence of the Sadar's Cabinet. Why? He had dismissed Health Minister, Pandit Saraf who refused to go and who mobilized other malcontnents like Girdharilal Dogra. However, it was Bakshi Ghulam Mohmammad's support which was crucial.

Abdullah was arrested in a separate matter- viz. anti-national activities- and sent to prison. This too was a lawful act. Why? The Kashmiri Constitution was different to the Indian one. The Indian Preventive Detention Act of 1950 did not extend to Kashmir. The Head of State was the son of the former King and he got to decide what was or wasn't 'anti-national'. Abdullah- who was insisting that Kashmir had only acceded control over defense, communications, and foreign affairs to New Delhi- had been hoist by his own petard! Rafi Ahmed Kidwai pulled the trigger on this. After Kidwai's death, Delhi offered Abdullah Kidwai's Cabinet job as Food Minister. But Abdullah resisted all blandishments and was soon back in jail. By his own argument, if Kashmir was autonomous then India couldn't get him released if Kashmir decided to keep him in jail.

What precipitated Abdullah's arrest? It was the revolt of Hindu Jammu- which wanted full merger with India, and the Ladhakhi spiritual leaders threat to accede to Tibet (which hadn't yet been over-run by the Chinese). Thus there was a threat to the territorial integrity of the State and so he was imprisoned for being 'anti-national'. From the Pakistani point of view, Abdullah would have been forced to choose Pakistan if J&K broke up. However, there were enough Kashmiri Muslim politicians who did not want to accede to Pakistan because they could see with their own eyes that the West Wing was not going down a democratic path. Elections were not held. Civil Servants and Feudal magnates ruled- though the Military would soon displace the former. Thus the Kashmiri political class, out of self-interest, preferred India because in India politicians rule the roost.
For five years he languished in jail, without any charges being brought against him.
This was legal precisely because India's laws, in this respect, did not extend to J&K.

Incidentally, Sheikh Abdullah, once in power, introduced the draconian Jammu and Kashmir Public Safety Act in 1978 which allows the detention without trial of anyone over 16 for up to two years “in the case of persons acting in any manner prejudicial to the security of the State”, and for administrative detention up to one year where “any person is acting in any manner prejudicial to the maintenance of public order”.
In 1958, the Sheikh was briefly released, but then jailed again, for a further five years. This time, charges were brought against him, of his being a Pakistani agent.
By whom? Bakshi Ghulam Muhammad- Abdullah's own former comrade and Deputy Prime Minister. Bakshi was right. Abdullah was a loose canon. He was playing into the hands of Pakistan. His stupidity prevented he himself gaining the protections embodied in the Indian Constitution. Bakshi was quite an able administrator and has been called the architect of modern Kashmir. He understood that Abdullah had alienated the Hindus and the Buddhists and that his 'Socialist' measures had run aground because he did not have the foresight to replace the traditional financial system with co-operative banks with the result that the poorer class of agriculturalists were going to the wall.

Elitist cretins like Guha don't give a damn about poor people. They live in a fantasy world where prudent and lawful acts are 'political crimes'/
These were both laughable and contemptible, for while the Sheikh wavered between being pro-India and being pro-Azadi, he never remotely had any attachment to the State of Pakistan, because he believed that Hindus and Sikhs had exactly the same rights as Muslims.
The charges against Abdullah were not 'laughable and contemptible'. They were correct. Jinnah may have believed Hindus and Sikhs would have had exactly the same rights as Muslims in Pakistan- but that's not how things had turned out, as everybody could see. Abdullah was engaging in fantasy. He had completely alienated the Hindus and Buddhists. J&K would break up. The Hindu politicians of Jammu would be fine because in India politicians get all the power. The Muslim politicians of the Valley would be displaced by Pakistani Civil Servants and Military officers because there was no way this small and impoverished territory could go it alone. Who would protect it from a 'tribal' incursion? From the Pakistani point of view, Abdullah was a 'useful idiot'. But he was useless from the Kashmiri point of view. In India, the Left gained by pretending to champion him while the Hindu Right gained by depicting him as seditious because, everybody knew, he was Nehru's chum. But, Abdullah was useless to his own people and they gained by his incarceration.
It was India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, who sanctioned the shameful and illegal arrest of Kashmir’s elected CM.
No. It was sanctioned by the Sadar-i-Riyasat of J&K at the prompting of the Cabinet of the State which, after Abdullah's dismissal, was headed by his own Deputy, Bakshi Ghulam Mohammad. Delhi insiders say that it was Kidwai who pulled the trigger, not Nehru.
In April 1964, Nehru had a belated change of heart, and released the Sheikh.
This was foolish. Given the fallout from the Hazratbal incident the previous year, Pakistan's Ayub Khan believed that this was Delhi's way of signalling that India was ready to give up the Valley- which was a nuisance because its people were superstitious cretins- so as to concentrate on the Chinese threat. This precipitated the 1965 war which greatly imperiled the status of Indian Muslims. But that is why Kidwai had pulled the trigger on Abdullah. His fantasies were helpful only to Pakistan, not Kashmir. If Abdullah prevailed, Pakistan would gobble up the Valley and the Hindus would go to town on the Muslims in the rest of India. Indeed, the 'Custodian of Enemy Property' did harass some loyal Indian Muslims. The father, in Salman Rushdie's novel 'Midnight's Children', was harassed in this way. Indeed, that is why Rushdie had to leave his beloved Bombay.
Tragically, after Nehru’s death, the Sheikh was jailed again, and kept there for another seven years, as ordered first by Lal Bahadur Shastri, and then by Indira Gandhi.
How was this tragic? It was salutary for Indian Muslims. Moreover, Muslims of the Valley had shown courage against Pakistani infiltrators while the Indian Army could boast of exemplary valor on the part of Muslim soldiers against the foreign foe.

After Indira Gandhi defeated the Pak army and set Bangladesh free, Hindu Indians lost their fear of Muslims as a 'fifth column' because though there can be no question that they were zealous in their piety they were not stupid. Only a cretin would want to join Pakistan- a genocidal and racist country on the way to becoming a failed state. It has now fallen behind Bangladesh- which it once looted and inflicted genocide upon.

Cretins like Guha may weep for Abdullah and think the duplicitous Pakistani narrative to be the testimony of Angels, but Indian Muslims reject such imbecility.
He was finally freed in 1972, a broken man, prepared to deal with New Delhi on any terms that New Delhi demanded.
Why 1972? Guha doesn't tell us. The answer is that India had defeated and dismembered Pakistan.
In the years that their popularly elected leader was in jail, a deep sense of alienation permeated Jammu and Kashmir.
If so, why didn't the Valley support the Pakistani infiltrators? It is a different matter that sensible people like having a choice of political parties and even a cretin can be a good figure-head for one such.
The distrust of New Delhi’s motives grew further in the 1960s and 1970s, as Congress governments at the Centre rigged elections and promoted corruption.
Dynastic parties are corrupt. That is true. However, ideological parties can be cretinous. That is why Communism has all but disappeared. By contrast, a meritocratic political party with a 'good Governance' agenda can succeed. Modi has delivered J&K from thralldom to corrupt and incompetent dynasties which instrumentalize terrorism for political gain. They run with the hares and hunt with the hounds. As a Union Territory, J&K's administration can improve. The Police can do their job without worrying about the dynasts.
A brief window of hope was provided by Prime Minister Morarji Desai of the Janata Party, who in 1978 oversaw the first fair election in the Valley.
Did J&K make great strides between 1978 and '82 (when Abdullah died)?  No. Zia's hanging of Bhutto hurt the Kashmiri branch of Jamaat but with the beginning of the Afghan insurgency their stock would rise over the next decade. The Abdullah dynasty lived cocooned in its own fantasy world. Abdullah made his son, Farooq, his heir though he was a novice. This put Abdullah's son-in-law, the highly experienced G.M Shah, nose out of joint. Thus it was inevitable that the Party would split along factionalist lines.
But then, in 1980, the Congress returned to power, and the mischief began afresh. In 1983, Indira Gandhi used underhand means to unseat an elected state government.
Guha is a historian. Historians are supposed to know the dates of important events. He doesn't. He says Farooq Abdullah was toppled in '83. Actually, it was '84. Indira played a part in it, to be sure, but it was G.M Shah, Farooq's brother-in-law, who was the prime mover.
Four years later, her son, Rajiv Gandhi, oversaw a blatantly rigged election. The leaders who fought and should have won some seats (had fairness prevailed) in that election went in disgust across the border, from where they began their jihad in 1989.
So, they had to cross the border to begin their jihad. They couldn't do it while sitting in the Legislature and ordering the Police to turn a blind eye.
When Atal Bihari Vajpayee became prime minister in 1998, he had to deal with this long history of alienation and distrust in Kashmir. He sought to overcome it by supervising a free election in the state, by suggesting a bus link between the two divided parts of Kashmir, and by extending a hand of friendship to the people of the Valley.
In other words, he did a deal with the Abdullah dynasty which made a lot of money as a result. This changed nothing as far as the Valley was concerned because that wealth did not trickle down.
Vajpayee offered humanity, democracy and pluralism as the three pillars of his government’s policy.
No. He let the dynasty hold high posts so they could enrich themselves and their cronies.
His approach was in striking contrast to that of previous Congress governments, which had used corruption and factionalism to divide the people, and State power to suppress them.
What else could Atal do? He needed the Abdullah's to prop up his coalition. But there were plenty of other corrupt dynastic satraps in his administration. India was shining only for the purpose of unjust enrichment. That is why Atal got the order of the boot.
In their own brute use of State power, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have followed the playbook of Jawaharlal Nehru and Indira Gandhi in Kashmir.
In other words, Modi & Shah have followed the playbook of the Union of India since its inception and in every subsequent decade. However, in contrast to the past, their actions are scrupulously legal and wholly transparent. No corrupt deal has been struck. Parliamentary votes have not been traded for juicy sinecures or offices of unjust enrichment.
The abrogation of Article 370, they tell us, is in the best interests of the people of Kashmir, yet those very people are given absolutely no say in how that decision is made.
On the contrary, those very people have absolutely as much say as any other Indian in that their elected representatives have a vote on the matter. Guha may not like the fact that the Constitution of India is unitary and that it is entirely a matter for the Union Government to decide what is or is not a State or Union territory. However, he has been calling for 'Constitutional patriotism' for quite some time now. Yet, at the first hurdle, he has become seditious to the Constitution of India and the intention of its framers.
The government converts the Valley into the largest prison in Indian history, where eight million people are shut up, their landlines and mobiles silenced, their access to food and medicines restricted.
India was the largest prison in Indian history during the Emergency- when there was no external threat to the country. Currently, there is a clear external threat to Kashmir. What has been done is perfectly legal and justified by the circumstances. It does not amount to incarceration. Guha's hyperbole is of the Huccha Venkat type. It is hysterical and has no basis in fact.
Even former chief ministers are placed under arrest (in a chilling echo of August 1953).
Only politicians who might pose a danger to public safety, or themselves be in danger, have been placed under house arrest. Guha is pretending that everybody- even ex CMs- has been arrested. He lives in a fantasy world.
Thousands of troops are flown in to make an already militarised zone look ever more like an occupied territory.
Because this 'militarized zone' is under threat of external aggression. There are also a lot of troops in strategically important border areas. When the external threat increases, the number of troops increase. Britain had a lot of troops along its coast when Hitler was menacing its liberty. No doubt, Nazi propagandists- like Lord Haw Haw- represented this as a sign that the U.K was occupied by the minions of the Jewish plutocracy. Why is Guha, an Indian citizen, playing the part of a Lord Haw Haw?
What happened in Kashmir last week bodes ill for Indian democracy.
No it doesn't. It is an expression of Indian democracy. Either things in J&K will improve or some other expedient will have to be sought for.
Laws outlive themselves, and might have to be modified or changed. However, the people who are to be affected by the change must be trusted, respected, and heard.
They are trusted to vote for people who will give utterance to their voice in Parliament. There is a right to emigrate. But there is no right to secession. Guha's 'Constitutional Patriotism' entails this view.
I wish the President himself had thought a little before signing so blindly on the dotted line.
The President is thoughtful. He is a former Supreme Court advocate. Guha is not thoughtful. He writes any shit that comes into his head and doesn't bother to read over what he writes and check his dates. He says here that Farooq Abdullah was toppled in '83. People my age remember it happened in '84. Guha was in India at the time. Why does he alone have a defective memory in this respect? The answer is that he is stupid and ignorant. In this, he is quite different from President Kovind.
He knew that millions of citizens whom this law would impact had been silenced beforehand.
Nonsense! He knew that some Muslims in the Valley would fear this move and would say so in more or less hysterical terms such that Public Order would be put at risk. Thus his Home Minister took precautionary measures which, so far, have proved adequate.
Could he not have returned the order, and asked for a wider consultation in Kashmir, and with Kashmiris, before it was introduced in Parliament?
No. Not if he was interested in upholding his oath of office. He is not required to pander to cretins like Guha. He has to put the interests of the country and the observance of the Constitution of India above any merely personal interest in how his actions are perceived.
Those Indians exulting at what just happened in Kashmir might reflect a little on the awful precedent it has set.
Very true. The awful precedent is that corrupt, incompetent, dynasts who instrumentalize criminality can be disintermediated from Governance. Democracy does not necessarily mean being trapped in a shit-hole.
This abuse of State power to shut up and immobilise citizens could happen next to your district, your province, your leaders, your children.
If your district, your province, your leaders or your children want to ethnically cleanse minorities or to accede to a country based on ethnic cleansing, then the State does not abuse its power in anyway by taking stern measures.
I concur entirely with Pratap Bhanu Mehta when he writes, about the government now in office: “This is a state that will make a mockery of democracy and deliberation. This is a state whose psychological principle is fear. This is a state that will make ordinary citizens cannon fodder for its warped nationalist pretensions”.
The rest of us concur entirely that Guha, Mander, Mehta and other such 'public intellectuals' who were the Dynasty's 'useful idiots' are idiots, certainly, but wholly useless.
We have been warned.
Guha & Co were warned that their 'long march through the Institutions' had ended in not just irrelevance but downright silliness. They ignored the warning. Now they are foaming at the mouth, the Academic disciplines, or University Departments, they represent are seen as utterly rabid.

Friday, 9 August 2019

Ramachandra Guha on Article 370

In 1992, a senior Professor got some industrialists to sign a letter condemning an illegal action by an Opposition party. They readily agreed so as to curry favor with the ruling Congress party which had been in power for much the greater part of post-independence Indian history.

In 2019, Guha- now himself a senior Professor- confesses he is unable to get even one industrialist to sign a letter condemning the same Party for a perfectly legal action. Guha thinks this proves industrialists are afraid of that Party because it is now in power. He does not think the fact that the 1992 action was illegal while the 2019 action was legal makes any difference. He writes-

This is because — for all the other parallels I began this column with — in one critical respect, 2019 is not 1992. This is that the government now in power in New Delhi is far more vindictive and vengeful than the one that was in power when the Babri Masjid was demolished.
That party was the Congress party which opposed the demolition of the Masjid. Condemning the enemy of the ruling party is a means to curry favor with it. Guha, being a historian, may not be aware that the Prime Minister at that time was Narasimha Rao who, like it or not, was Sonia's second choice- after Shankar Dayal Sharma turned her down- for the office of P.M.
When Bharat Ram and Lalit Thapar were approached by Dharma Kumar, they did not think that the fate of the tens of thousands of workers they employed would be put at risk by the mere act of their signing a statement.
How could the fate of either Ram or Thapar's enterprises be put at risk? Congress was in power. These rich men were attacking the BJP because it was the enemy of Congress. Thus they were currying favor with the Ruling party.

Consider the case of Bharat Ram. He'd had to fight off a takeover by the British based Swaraj Paul- who had ingratiated himself with Indira Gandhi while she was in the wilderness- and knew full well how important it was, under 'License Raj' or 'Raid Raj', to stay in the good books of the Dynasty. This was because most of the shares in Indian business houses, like D.C.M or Escorts, were owned by Public Sector Institutions like the L.I.C.

 In this instance, his old school chum- Rajiv Gandhi- came to his rescue and cut down to size his Mum's P.A - R.K Dhawan- who had been gunning for Bharat Ram ever since his company grabbed some land from a relative of Dhawan's. Later Dhawan was accused of having a hand in Indira's assassination though Rajiv magnanimously cleared him of that charge. However, by then, there was no doubt in anybody's mind that Pranab Mukherjee would have to play second fiddle. All power would vest in the dynasty.

As for Lalit Thapar, the man had been arrested for tax evasion as part of V.P Singh's crackdown on black money when he was Rajiv Gandhi's Finance Minister. Thapar admitted his guilt. But it was V.P Singh who was punished- being sidelined to Defense, a mistake Rajiv would live long enough to regret because Singh used the knowledge he gained about Rajiv's own corruption in connection with arms deals to discredit Congress. Thus V.P Singh was able to become P.M but lost the post when he arrested Advani in connection with the planned Babri Masjid demolition. Rajiv's assassination put the Dynasty firmly back in power and that is the reason the Corporates always bent the knee to it and did its bidding. This also meant that some third rate Professors could pretend to have influence by getting these industrialists to sign their names to partisan screeds attacking the BJP. Those days are long gone. Industrialists don't have to fear the Dynasty or its minions- more especially those in the Academy- anymore.

Guha has a genius for making the stupidest possible argument and assembling the most damning evidence possible against himself. It is well known that Rajiv took over the Finance Ministry to save the Corporates from having to pay their taxes or else go to jail. It is also well known that he and Sonia were corrupt- as are all the other dynastic parties, including those of Kashmir.  No doubt, corrupt politicians and tax dodging Corporates have an interest in defending 'Secularism' which means the perpetuation of dynasties, whose interests are wholly worldly, not moral or spiritual in the slightest, in saecula saeculorum.

The plain fact of the matter is that V.P Singh as P.M saved the Babri Masjid. The people knew he was 'Clean' and, what's more, not dynastic. Thus he could chuck Advani in jail if he wagged his tail and Advani- a Sindhi- would look a fool. However, because V.P Singh showed his hostility to the Ambanis- and thus to the Corporates- they were greatly relieved when he fell. They did not care that Narasimha Rao let the Babri Masjid be destroyed. They were not even shedding crocodile tears on this issue. What they were doing was signalling loyalty to the dynasty. Guha is doing the same thing. How so? Well, the current Congress narrative is that Rao was a traitor who secretly conspired to have the Babri Masjid demolished. Guha, with typical Huccha Venkat type hysteria, goes the extra mile and pretends that Rao was actually a BJP Prime Minister who ordered the destruction of the Babri Masjid and that Hindu industrialists were courageous enough to protest this illegal act even though this would get them into hot water with the Ruling Party!

Guha, it seems, is a Historian who believes in rewriting History in the craziest and most reckless manner possible. What's more, he fancies himself something of a mover and shaker in the Corporate world. Industrialists hang upon his lips. They consider him the new Mahatma Gandhi whose word is law- at least as far morality and righteousness is concerned.
But were I to approach their counterparts today, even if they entirely approved of what I was trying to do, they would be too scared to sign on. They would have feared retribution, in the form of unannounced raids, cooked-up cases, arrests, and worse.
They would fear being associated by a Huccha Venkat type cretin who does not understand that Congress was ruling in 1992 when the BJP broke the law and thus it was a smart move to condemn the BJP for doing something illegal because the ruling party would reward such behavior. Now, by contrast, the ruling party has done something which is perfectly legal. Why condemn it? What has been done is for the good of the country. Guha may not like it, but he is a fool. Why pander to this cretin? Tomorrow, he may demand you sign a letter saying Modi must convert to Islam to show his secular credentials. The day after, he may suddenly discover that he is not himself a Muslim and thus he might try to bite his own foreskin off so as to remedy a defect his ancestral religion has saddled him with.