Sunday, 25 March 2018

Why neither Social Choice nor Public Reason can have an Idea of Justice.

Social Choice theory is about how to aggregate  people's preferences over alternatives so as to make good Social decisions. It can't support any idea or theory of Justice anymore than it can support any idea or theory of Cake making or Origami or Quantum Electrodynamics. Why? The condition for the Condorcet Jury theorem is not met. Most people are more likely to be wrong than right about something about which they have thought little and cared less.

A Keynesian Beauty Contest, on the other hand, can give us some information about what people think other people will judge to be most pleasing to popular taste but it can't be used to construct a theory of Aesthetics or to create a consensual yardstick for Beauty.

Sen pretends otherwise not because he himself has any idea or theory of Justice but because he is Sen-ile and likes  comparing apples to oranges because this proves he has mastered horticulture.
Sen asks-
Would not a theory that identifies a transcendental alternative also, through the same process, tell us what we want to know about comparative justice?
Yes. The Stalnaker Lewis 'closest possible world' to our own, which we hold to be perfectly just, does in fact tell us what we need to do in any specific case. Generally, the answer is 'Do nothing. Stop worrying about it. You aren't actually a Judge, thanks be to Fuck! Quit twiddling with your todger and go do something useful.'

Sen takes a different view-
The answer is no – it does not. We may, of course, be tempted by the idea that we can rank alternatives in terms of their respective closeness to the perfect choice, so that a transcendental identification may indirectly yield also a ranking of alternatives. But that approach does not get us very far, partly because there are different dimensions in which objects differ (so that there is the further issue of assessing the relative importance of distances in distinct dimensions), and also because descriptive closeness is not necessarily a guide to valuational proximity (a person who prefers red wine to white may prefer either to a mixture of the two, even though the mixture is, in an obvious descriptive sense, closer to the preferred red wine than pure white wine would be)
The transcendental alternative- i.e the perfectly just 'closest possible world'- tells us to shut the fuck up unless it is feasible for us to
1) rank alternatives in terms of their relationship with, not the perfect choice, but the most efficient transition vector such that its implementation accelerates convergence to the ideal.
this requires us to
2) have a system of description that 'carves up the world along its joints' and which thus doesn't have 'holes' or 'discontinuities' of the red wine/white wine sort Sen mentions. Such a system of description would
3) give us a single valued metric such that McKelvey chaos is avoided. Furthermore, it would prioritise certain injustices and thus be proof against concurrency or race hazard type problems.

If there is at least one person who is universally acknowledged both to be more just as well as to know more and have more skill than any rival; then the transcendental alternative can be immediately institutionalised and can commence its program of action. Arrow might say 'this is dictatorial' but, in this context, the word has no repugnant association.

In the real world, it is a matter of fact that Judges do look at the ideal solution and work backwards to see how much of it can be realised. So do Economists. These 'second best' solutions require idiographic 'expert cognition' and are protocol bound. A nomothetic approach based on 'principles' just adds noise to signal. It is worthless.

Sen has told us that people he calls 'transcendental institutionalists' do make comparative judgments. This is naughty, in his view, because 'a plurality of impartial reasons' are thereby ignored. However, it is not proven that any such plurality exists. The parable of the flute does not show any such thing. Bob and Anna's claims are not 'impartial'. They are based on some accidental circumstance peculiar to themselves. Bob is poor. Anna can play the flute. Neither of these accidents have any essential relationship to ownership. Bob's claim would be defeated if a poorer child chanced to come by. Anna's claim would be defeated if a superior flute player turned up.  Clara, by contrast, made the flute deliberately and with the expenditure of time and skill. Her ownership claim is based on an impartial principle. No doubt, Clara, in making her claim may have included irrelevant reasons- e.g. that she didn't get cake at lunch because there wasn't enough and so had to make do with rice pudding instead- but that does not alter things in the slightest because there is only one 'impartial' ratio here- viz. the good old Lockean notion of ownership as arising through mingled labor power.

A Transcendental Institutionist could easily stipulate for a type of education or indoctrination such that no plurality of impartial reasons could exist. It is simply a matter of defining and enforcing a definition of 'impartial reason' of a particular sort. In practice, the protocol bound 'artificial reason' of the Courts does dispense with 'a plurality of impartial reasons'. The Judgment states the ratio used in deciding a case. It features only one reason. The obiter dicta may mention other reasons and explain where and when they could become the ratio. However, obiter dicta are not binding in the same stare decisis sense.

I suppose, a Transcendental Instiutionalist  could permit a 'plurality of impartial reasons' with some tribunal giving a discretionary weighting to each 'impartial reason'. However, this would make the system more 'gameable'. Still, the thing is possible. I recall a friend of mine who happened to be Gay, Disabled, Muslim and Ugandan. He was given a scholarship to Ivy League initially for an undergraduate degree (though he had a Bachelors degree from Makerere) but was quickly admitted to the MPhil program because of his undoubted ability. Still, on attending his first seminar, he could see that his peers regarded his admission as 'tokenism' since he ticked so many boxes! Since his subject was purely alethic, not Sen-tentious shite, he was soon able to make his mark. However, he choose not to remain in Academia, though he received good offers, precisely because of a new type of prejudice which has been created by badly designed 'affirmative action'.

This is not to say that the private sector is less prejudiced than the public sector. The opposite is the case. No doubt, my friend would be making a lot more money- or running a much bigger division- if he weren't judged on appearance and place or origin. Still, he is getting to make decisions in the field where his is the greatest competence.

It is perfectly proper, in Liberal Societies, that Professors are permitted to say anything they like about Jurisprudence. But this is only because Judges, who lack any such freedom as opposed to duty, get to actually decide cases.

Sen is worried only about the Professors. He says-
It is, of course, possible to have a theory that does both comparative assessments between pairs of alternatives, and a transcendental identification (when that is not made impossible through the surviving plurality of impartial reasons that have claims on our attention). That would be a ‘conglomerate’ theory, but neither of the two different types of judgements follows from each other.
Sez you! It is perfectly possible to have a transcendental identification which rejects 'plurality of impartial reasons' or nullifies their deadlocking effect, by introducing a multiplicative weight update algorithm- and which also becomes the foundation of a comparative approach.

The same thing can be done through a non deterministic 'Oracular' procedure or Ethics based mimetic process. Some Revealed Religions, much of classical Chinese political thought, and many ideologies can fairly be described in no other way.

Consider the system of Ninomiya Sontoku which a Japanese economist has shown gives rise to a desirable type of general equilibrium. It is transcendental and could be institutionalised- indeed, the Bukufu bureaucracy sponsored the 'peasant-sage' and, at a later point, presented his vision as an alternative to Western style 'Liberalism'. Indeed, Herbert Spencer, on the evidence of a private letter to a Japanese admirer, would probably have preferred Ninomiya's approach had he known about it.

A different system can be discerned in the writings of the great Chinese poet Yan Wan Li. It too is transcendental and was associated with the leading Chinese institution of its time.

A transcendental approach is not different from that of positive economics. Both are concerned with global opportunity cost. This means they are looking at different possible 'transition vectors' and choosing on that basis. Thus, a genuine transcendental institutionalist can always compare situations though he is likely to most often say 'this doesn't matter' or 'this is properly  indeterminate' because most things don't matter and most processes are indeterminate for an excellent reason- viz. they are part of inclusive fitness's regret minimizing strategy under Knightian uncertainty.

Sen never examines the global aspect of opportunity cost. That is why he was and is a shite economist who always gives the worst advice possible in any given situation. Why? He thinks most people are as stupid as he is himself.

Sen says a guy who lives in a gangster controlled neighborhood can't run away from that neighbourhood or work with others to get rid of the gangsters. But, if the guy doesn't look at this 'global' aspect of his opportunity set- if he concerns himself solely with his immediate utility- then his opportunity set will shrink adversely.
The price of freedom is eternal vigilance. To be free means to think about possible threats to your freedom as well as possible opportunities that might arise if you act prudently or diligently now without any immediate reward.
More immediately, the standard theories of justice that are associated with the approach of transcendental identification (for example, those of Hobbes, Rousseau, Kant or, in our time, Rawls or Nozick) are not, in fact, conglomerate theories. It is, however, true that in the process of developing their respective transcendental theories, some of these authors have presented particular arguments that happen to carry over to the comparative exercise. But in general the identification of a transcendental alternative does not offer a solution to the problem of comparisons between any two non-transcendental alternatives.
This is not an argument but an arbitrary and partisan assertion. It is perfectly possible to repair the theories of those Sen mentions so that all 'this world' alternatives correspond to items in the most efficient transition vector to the closest possible 'transcendental world'.  Indeed, the Spilrajn extension theorem can also be used the other way. Any partial ordering in this world means there must be a transcendental closest possible world. An efficient, for global, 'comparatist' program would be identical to the transition vector to that perfectly just alternative world.

The problem with Hobbes, Rousseau and Kant is that they don't say 'non-transcendental alternatives' don't matter but give some stupid reason why they do. Masturbation does not matter- though failure to have a wank may adversely affect health outcomes in later life. Rousseau and Kant were foolish to discuss the subject.

Consider the case for and against tax-funded abortion. I'm for it because it has reduced my likelihood of getting mugged by feral teens. Rawls was probably for it though for a mistaken reason. People behind the veil of ignorance don't know if they might be the ensouled as a fetus at risk of the procedure. Nozick was against tax funded abortion because he thought tax money should only be used for the police and the army. Actually, he should have been for criminalising abortion because there can be no doubt that most fetuses could become right bearers.

What about Sen? He is against female foeticide but is cool with abortion. Short-run, a ban on sex selective abortion can have some impact. But it becomes easier and easier to evade as technology advances. Moreover, it doesn't actually have any negative consequences because men can get brides from less developed regions. The men in those places have to work in distant towns, living in crowded dormitories, so there is no actual gender imbalance in their region as a result of the export of brides. By comparison, a developed society- like East Germany- which loses girls more than boys to the bright lights of Frankfurt and Munich, may develop social and political problems. But then depopulation would have occurred in any case.

The transcendental solution, I'm afraid, is pro-life. Imagine if there had been some scientific way of telling that I'd be a worthless blathershite while I was still in the womb. Might not Mum have been tempted to get rid of me? Thankfully, my parents were Hindus and had a horror of 'garbha-hatya'.

The 'comparative' aspect of the transcendental solution would be to compensate the woman who feels obliged to have the abortion. It may be decided that no adequate compensation is affordable and thus the woman may go ahead. However, it should punish anyone who has committed a crime or tort against the woman thus causing her to wish to terminate her pregnancy. It is not the mother, but those who have abused or oppressed her who are guilty of 'garbha-hatya'. The woman has suffered enough and may certainly be entitled to tax funded help of various sorts.
Transcendental theory simply addresses a different question from those of comparative assessment – a question that may be of considerable intellectual interest, but which is of no direct relevance to the problem of choice that has to be faced.
Nonsense! Either the transcendental theory is action guiding or it is a worthless academic availability cascade in which case the only question that is addressed is how to write the stupidest shite possible. All the informational and computational constraints that vitiate an Academic, as opposed to action-guiding,  'transcendental theory' also vitiate comparative assessment.

Sen believes that-
 if we are trying to choose between a Picasso and a Dali, it is of no help to invoke a diagnosis (even if such a transcendental diagnosis could be made) that the ideal picture in the world is the Mona Lisa.
A diagnosis is either alethic or it is mischievous. Since nobody, in good faith, would invoke a false diagnosis in a different context, it follows that we are talking of 'knowledge' not 'surmise'. Such knowledge may be comprehensive with respect to every state of the world in which case the person offering this knowledge in another context is like the Game Show host in the Monty Hall problem who is changing our information set and with a view to getting us to change our decision. Alternatively this may snippet of information may arise from a 'zero-knowledge proof'- i.e. the person offering it has verified that someone else has correctly identified the 'ideal picture' but this verification did not involve his own gaining any extra knowledge. Thus he is speaking truthfully when he says 'the Mona Lisa' is the ideal picture. However, he can't tell us by what process of analysis this fact was arrived at.
Sen says 'invoking a diagnosis' (even if it is based on either a comprehensive theory or a 'zero knowledge proof') is no help in a slightly different context. He is wrong. Knowing the ideal picture is X is very very helpful indeed. It would immediately affect the art market. Art dealers would consult metrics based on different theories regarding why exactly X is the ideal and factorising those elements so that all other pictures can be given a value on the basis of how they score on those same elements.

This does not necessarily mean that the market won't be volatile. Indeed, volatility may increase as better methods of factorisation compete.

In my own case, as a follower of Pater or Haemsterhuis, I might say Dali is more preoccupied with factors in Da Vinci than Picasso. My preference for him is justified.

However, preferences aren't aesthetic judgments any more than the fact that I like the number 69 more than the number 420 is a mathematical judgement. No knowledge is generated by aggregating preferences. Effective demand is another matter. But effective demand is highly sensitive to expert cognition. As I write this I'm looking at a reproduction of Alma Tadema's 'Roses of Heliogabalus'. In 1960 I could have bought if for a hundred quid. It was last sold for a million and a half. This is not because British preferences changed greatly over the period. Rather it has to do with 'expert cognition' in the Art market.

Aggregating preferences over numbers won't give you a Mathematical theory. Similarly, the fact that some one likes Dali more than Picasso and then someone else says 'Mona Lisa is the ideal picture' has absolutely no relevance or bearing on Aesthetic theory or the Idea of Beauty. It's just cheap talk is all. However a zero knowledge proof that the Monal Lisa is the ideal is a very costly signal indeed. It creates a new separating equilibrium.

There is an old story about an American millionaire who approaches the Pope. He offers a munificent donation in exchange for one one small change in the Bible. Instead of 'loves and fishes', he wants a mention of the breakfast cereal he produces. The Pope is obliged to refuse. The words of Scripture are a type of 'zero knowledge proof' of the Creator's compassion for Humanity. Like all genuine knowledge with respect to what can be seen or touched, Scripture too must be tamper-proof albeit with respect to what is unseen and beyond mortal ken.
That may be interesting to hear, but it is neither here nor there in the choice between a Dali and a Picasso.
'Doxa'- opinion- may or may not be interesting to hear.  Still, it is prudent to bear it in mind. After all, doxastic systems, formal or informal, have methods of enforcing themselves if only as a solution to coordination games.
Knowledge may be very boring to hear or difficult to comprehend. But it is action guiding for rational people- or rather, rational people delegate decisions to people with expertise in this knowledge.

'Public Reason' which does not feature alethic knowledge but rather which concerns itself with doxa invented by careerist Academics is not wholly useless. In the short run, it is true, some mischievous ideas may gain currency. Medium term, however, people recognise that an entire branch of Academia is simply dead wood. Long term, these braying donkeys have destroyed only their own pasture. Their students will starve.

Thus the wise professor will keep his mouth shut.
Indeed, it is not at all necessary to talk about what may be the greatest or most perfect picture in the world, to choose between the two alternatives that we are facing.
Provided we do it by tossing a coin or saying 'this picture's got more naked ladies' or 'that picture would look cool on my kitchen wall.
However, if we are not choosing simply to please ourselves- if for example we are discussing what sort of pictures we should buy to decorate the rooms of our international hotel chain- then a helpful place to start is by thinking out the most perfect picture for our purpose. For copyright reasons, or because the picture is too trite or 'on the nose', we may not be able to actually choose that 'perfect picture'. But it is enough to get our Art Director going in the right direction.
Nor is it sufficient, or indeed of any particular help, to know that the Mona Lisa is the most perfect picture in the world when the choice is actually between a Dali and a Picasso.
Sheer nonsense. If Moaning Lisa is perfect, Dali is better than the virile Picasso.

Knowing something is perfect tells us about perfection. It changes everything. There was a time when I'd never had proper Italian food. Like many Britishers, I thought good Italian food meant lots of cheese and sauce and black pepper. Then I was served a perfect Italian meal. When I was told it was perfect, no further words were needed. More importantly, I was easily able to work out for myself what qualities Italians valued. Suddenly I was able to see why Ungaretti was better than the shithead D'Annunzio. To know the Italian notion of perfection is life changing. You stop dressing like a pimp and suddenly appear natural and even, to some extent, graceful and elegant.

Italy is a big and diverse country. At about the same time as the French were trying to create a champagne type wine industry in India, a cooperative in a poor part of South Italy was trying to climb the value chain. Indian grape growers- in the main- did not drink wine. The Italians did. They were quickly able to develop 'expert cognition' about a multi-dimensional quality space. Competing locally, then regionally, then at the European level, they settled on a particular style of wine- not the most expensive- but certainly very acceptable at certain seasons with certain sorts of food.
To say to these, now quite elderly,  peasants- 'I've brought you this Chilean wine. It won the gold medal in its class' is to initiate a very complex epistemological process. The peasants are gaining knowledge of a type that bypasses usual metrics. They know their own terroir and its possibilities. Tasting this alien wine grown under wholly different conditions nevertheless can lift their own horizons.
Expert cognition is like that. Idiographic knowledge is useful in this way.

By contrast, what Sen is engaging in is a particularly meaningless sort of Methodenstreit. He is slaying a non-existent epistemological dragon to protect the maidenhood of a harlot.
What is needed instead is an agreement, based on public reasoning, on rankings of alternatives that can be realized.
There can never be any such agreement because it is rational to permit the inclusion of antagonomic arguments. Robert Aumann has told us that the Sanhedrin actually had a rule against unanimity. The Catholic Church has at least one 'Devil's advocate' even in so sensitive a matter as Canonization.

In any case, there can't be a process of 'public reasoning' which ranks itself higher than any alternative ranking mechanism save by some arbitrary procedure. But in that case it isn't reasoning at all.

We all know that Public Reasoning is a waste of time. We also know that people who pretend to believe otherwise are seeking agenda control to push through some public mischief.

Sen, who has spent more than his fare share of time in stupid committee meetings, knows this better than most, yet Sen-ilely insists that
The separation between the transcendental and the comparative is quite comprehensive, as will be more fully discussed in Chapter 4 (‘Voice and Social Choice’).
Does Sen actually demonstrate any separation between transcendental and comparative approaches in the relevant chapter?
No.
Sens says-
'  A transcendental approach cannot, on its own, address questions about advancing justice and compare alternative proposals for having a more just society, short of the utopian proposal of taking an imagined jump to a perfectly just world. Indeed, the answers that a transcendental approach to justice gives – or can give – are quite distinct and distant from the type of concerns that engage people in discussions on justice and injustice in the world (for example, iniquities of hunger, poverty, illiteracy, torture, racism, female subjugation, arbitrary incarceration or medical exclusion as social features that need remedying).
This is nonsense. A politically significant 'transcendental approach'- one that founds, or has the potential to refashion, a polity- would have a prioritised 'transition vector' featuring 'revolutionary justice'- i.e. killing certain key officials or influential people- followed by some 'War Communism' type draconian rule featuring expropriation and conscription without due process- before finally reverting from this 'state of exception' to a stable society under the rule of Law administered by Institutions which, the faithful might well believe to be 'transcendentally just'.
Alternatively, if plutocrats are in charge, no visible bloodshed need occur. The thing could be outsourced to Cambridge Analytics or feature the type of shenanigans familiar to us from 'House of Cards'.

By contrast, elderly pedants playing puerile 'Dracula vs Spiderman' games should, both for transcendental and comparative reasons, just shut the fuck up or else simply carry on fucking over young elitists in some Ivy League Ivory Tower.

Sen now presents a mathematical argument as to why, contrary to my assertion, a transcendental theory can't always yield a comparative assessment and vice versa
Could it be the case that the comparative rankings of the different alternatives must inter alia also be able to identify the transcendentally just social arrangement? Would the transcendental invariably follow from the full use of the comparative? If that were the case, we could plausibly argue that in a somewhat weak sense there is a necessity for the tractability of the transcendental alternative. It would not, of course, imply that there is any need to go via the transcendental approach to comparative assessments, but it would at least give transcendental identification a necessary presence in the theory of justice, in the sense that if the transcendental question cannot be answered, then we should conclude that we cannot fully answer the comparative question either. Would a sequence of pairwise comparisons invariably lead us to the very best? That presumption has some appeal, since the superlative might indeed appear to be the natural end-point of a robust comparative. But this conclusion would, in general, be a non sequitur. In fact, it is only with a ‘well-ordered’ ranking (for example, a complete and transitive ordering over a finite set) that we can be sure that the set of pairwise comparisons must also always identify a ‘best’ alternative.
The Szpilrajn extension theorem tells us that we can always fill out a strict partial order to get a strict total order. So long as a transcendental theory seeks to operate upon the existing world and map it on to the target 'closest possible' ideal world, subject to certain constraints to do with efficiency and fairness, then there is a 'best' Transition vector which some possible redactor of the Theory will find is complete with respect to his vision. This redactor may not exist in this world but does in the closest possible just world. If 'possible worlds' exist, we each have such a redactor. Indeed, there must be some world where we all have univocal redactors.

We must, therefore, ask: how complete should the assessment be for it to be a systematic discipline?
Why ask this? Nobody in the real world has a complete assessment even with respect to the decisions- e.g. what to think about while brushing one's teeth- we make in a single, solitary, hour of our life.
The vast majority of 'systematic disciplines' don't greatly matter. Wanking is a systematic discipline. So is taking a shit. We are under no obligation to ask 'how complete is the assessment' a wanker makes in deciding which video on pornhub to jizz to or whether a shitter is optimising the application of pressure on his bowels. No doubt, at the margin, there may be some people who need help with these things but it is not a matter of general concern.

Professors- as opposed to Lawyers or Legislators- talking shite about distributive Justice are just having a wank. They may be systematic (though Sen isn't) and some poor boobies may attend their lectures thinking they are acquiring an academic discipline but the truth is they are paying for a golden shower from a pedagogue, not a high priced prostitute of the kind who can tell you a juicy story about Trump which you can dine out on for the rest of your days.
In the ‘totalist’ approach that characterizes the standard theories of justice, including Rawls’s, incompleteness tends to appear as a failure, or at least as a sign of the unfinished nature of the exercise.
The real failure is that Professors fight shy of wading into 'wedge issues' or get egg on their face when they do. Sen condemns female foeticide but not abortion. Levinas decided that Palestenians don't represent an alterity so it's okay to bomb them. Rawls advocated killing and eating African babies. Well, not in so many words, he didn't. But if it were a 'general truth' of Economics or Psychology that African babies must be ground up and added to one's breakfast cereal by multinational corporations so as to stimulate a passion for 'justice as fairness' in people, then that's what his theory would cash out as.

Incompleteness is not a problem in a theory- especially a theory of Justice- because completeness would involve a state space explosion.
Indeed, the survival of incompleteness is sometimes seen as a defect of a theory of justice, which calls into question the positive assertions that such a theory makes.
The fact that something is sometimes seen as an elephant does not make it an elephant. It calls nothing into question except one's capacity to drive if those elephants happen to be pink.

I make the positive assertion that my name is Vivek. The fact that I can't make positive assertions about the names of other fat middle aged South Indian drunkards does not call anything into question at all.

I have a theory about names which is different from Saul Kripke's. That is why I used to ring up our Ambassador in Washington and  positively assert that my name is Rahul Gandhi and could you please tell Mummy to legalise butt sex immediately otherwise I won't come home and become Prime Minister. I don't deny that my theory of names is incomplete. I don't know what name I will positively assert myself to bear the next time I drunk dial an Indian diplomat.
In fact, a theory of justice that makes systematic room for incompleteness can allow one to arrive at quite strong – and strongly relevant – judgements (for example, about the injustice of continuing famines in a world of prosperity, or of persistently grotesque subjugation of women, and so on), without having to find highly differentiated assessments of every political and social arrangement in comparison with every other arrangement (for example, addressing such questions as: exactly how much tax should be put on the sale of petrol in any particular country, for environmental reasons?)
No theory of justice is required for saying 'feed the starving you fat fucks!' or 'stop shitting on women you limp dick retards!'
A sound knowledge of economics is required to answer questions about how much tax should be put on petrol. It's what Economists should be doing as opposed to putting on their underpants over their trousers and poncing around in a cape as the 'Captain Obvious' of the soundbite hungry mass-media.

Sen claimed that Social Choice theory was important for some reason to do with comparative justice. He wrote a chapter on the topic. But that chapter says nothing. Both comparative and transcendental approaches may be complete or they may be incomplete. What matters is that neither type, as advanced by Sen and his colleagues, say anything substantive at all. They just gesture at famine or the oppression of women and say 'that's unjust'. Beyond that they are wholly empty unless they propose an actual mechanism we have reason to think is incentive compatible and thus capable of being the solution of a repeated game or a voluntarily entered into bond of law.

 Sen thinks this emptiness of his own 'idea' is a good thing because our response will be to spend more and more time on public reasoning about what ought to be done. But if we do that then some senile careerist like Sen will barge in and start babbling about Condorcet- as if that nobleman, as opposed to Henry Adams, had actually achieved anything.
As it happens, the comparative approach is central to the analytical discipline of ‘social choice theory’, initiated by the Marquis de Condorcet and other French mathematicians in the eighteenth century, mainly working in Paris.
Condorcet was guillotined because he was too stupid to run away. Talleyrand ran away but returned to play a big part in reshaping France and Europe.
The formal discipline of social choice was not much used for a long time, though work continued in the specific sub-area of voting theory.
Voting theory was and is important- it explained why French democracy was so unstable and corrupt while British democracy was stable and increasingly scrupulous. However, precisely because voting theory is important, the idiographic expert knowledge of local power-brokers is always able to harness the flying pigs of the mathematical theorist to the chariot of true Democracy which will fuck over the voter more thoroughly than had ever been previously envisaged.
The discipline was revived and established in its present form by Kenneth Arrow in the middle of the twentieth century.
This 'discipline' only existed in Econ. Departments and there too it scarcely has had a pulse for decades. Pilates, by contrast, is a discipline which has burgeoned. Real world people do Pilates, they don't do Social Choice.

The truth is Arrow kicked his brother-in-law, Samuelson, in the goolies by telling a stupid, obvious, lie- viz. that a dictator can be a guy with no power. For a couple of decades a lot of students thought the Bergsonian Social Welfare Function had been killed off. This wasn't true as even Arrow must have realised after Sen alerted him to the implications of the Szpilrajn extension theorem. By then Social Choice was as moribund as Samuelson's Research Program. Chichilnisky, whom Sen helped get published, did prove a valuable result to do with the sufficiency of 'limited arbitrage' which might be relevant here- but only to show that nobody needs an idea of Justice which can't actually judge anything save by cutting up a baby to appease the different 'impartial reasons' of its supposed mothers.  Another name missing from Sen's book is McKelvey of the Chaos theorem fame. Multi-dimensional policy spaces- like those which must emerge in a Sen-tentious 'pluralist' comparative approach- are manipulable through agenda control.

Sen's mistake is in thinking that if a lawyer or other type of advocate gives a whole bunch of reasons for doing something then some information is lost if the ratio of the final judgment is based only on one argument. This isn't true at all. A drunk man may fumble through a dozen keys before he hits upon the right one to his apartment. This doesn't mean all the keys can open the lock to his home.
In general, we do need to know the value of the second best alternative use. Ebay is an example of an auction where the price paid depends on the second best offer, or the reserve, whichever is higher. This is not always the optimal auction process. There is a first order theory of auction design, which- unlike Social Choice- does seem to be useful and able to 'pay its way' in the real world. But Sen isn't doing that sort of useful work. He thinks the Public won't notice. Perhaps it wouldn't if he'd kept his mouth shut. After winning the Nobel, the Indian media had an inexhaustible appetite for Sen. But the more he talked the more apparent it became that he and his subject were worthless. Now, it is sufficient for Sen to say he is for something for everybody to conclude that it is a bad idea.

Sen praised 'nyaya' (substantive justice) over 'niti' (procedural justice). India's response has been to get rid of the Planning Commission (which, theoretically, could enforce any allocation by 'command' and thus achieve 'nyaya') and replacing it with a Niti Aayog (Policy Commission). India has realised that Development is not about 'Public Reason' or 'Social Choice' deciding what the country should do in a top down fashion. Rather it is about 'subsidiarity'. Decisions should be made locally by those with expert knowledge and 'skin in the game'. Stupid professors should carry on soiling themselves in public so that young people will understand that non-STEM subjects are shite. At one time mathematical Econ looked sort of 'STEMish'. People like Sen have shown why this assumption was wholly mischievous.

Both Social Choice Theory and the Academic discourse concerning Public Reason are 'nomothetic'- they are based on generalisations. But Economics is idiographic- it works with what is, not what ought to be. Generalisations are useful in Maths. Grothendieck's 'Yoga'- i.e. unification of diverse branches of Maths on the basis of greater generality- can make Math more productive. In anything involving Social processes, however, there is a trade-off between generality and significance. Even a good first order theorist, like Rawls or Harsanyi, or Nozick, has nothing significant to say though their generalisations have some imperative force. Sen, by contrast, is a second order theorist. He is pretending that the first order theorists he is critiquing had something significant to say. His next step is to pretend that Society obediently implemented these first order theories. Yet, injustice still occurs. Sen is saying the reason for this is Society's implementation of a flawed theory. He is saving Society by uncovering that flaw so that we can choose a better path. Thus he is truly not just the 'Mother Theresa of Economics' but the new Solon or Buddha.

The facts are quite different. Though Rawls has been widely quoted in judicial opinions and law review articles- not least because of the clarity of his prose- this is because he incarnates the best features of the Warren Court which created the atmosphere in which Rawls developed his theory. Thus, Rawls- though a first order thinker- was not essentially changing the course of Jurisprudence; rather he was clarifying and elucidating what was most valuable in a particular epoch making period in American judicial history.
 Justice Posner, by contrast, could be said to have directly changed jurisprudence or inaugurated a new 'Law and Economics' era'.

Rawls marks a 'high water mark' for a particular type of elite left-liberal optimism. When his seminal work first came out some still believed Samuelson's claim that the Soviet Union, with its command economy, could overtake the US in terms of living standards. Nixon was the first President to publicly espouse Keynesianism. He also implemented a brief 'Price-Wage freeze'. Thus some people who subscribed to Tinbergen, or Galbraith's, 'convergence hypothesis' thought America would become more like Russia- it would have a price control board of the sort Galbraith had presided over during the War- and thus Hayek and Friedman and so forth were on the wrong side of history (probably because they weren't mathematicians).

During the course of the Seventies, it became apparent that Hayek was right and Kantorovitch was wrong. In the mid Eighties, some stupid Soviet mathematical economists persuaded Gorbachev to end the party's control of the means of production. The resulting, entirely predictable, 'scissors crisis' was a sort of neutron bomb- it killed the party while leaving the nomenklatura alive to turn to a more lucrative type of gangsterism.

Sen is very much a witness to this history. Indeed, by leaving India- rather than following the career path of a Sukhamoy Chakroborty or Manmohan Singh- for the harsh life of British academia (where he had no servants and ayahs and malis and chauffeurs and so forth) he was showing he was on the right side of history. He made the most of his opportunities and by writing silly books based on stupid lies, he created a niche for himself as somehow representing poor brown people everywhere.

Sen knew his subject- Social Choice- was regarded as 'India's subject' in the early Seventies- a time when India was considered a basket case and Calcutta, in particular, was viewed a Malthusian hell hole worthy of the paintbrush of a Hieronymous Bosch.

 Morishima asked Kaushik Basu whether this was what he was going to specialise in 'India's subject' when Basu first came to the LSE. But Basu, like Sen, knew the subject was a wank and that the slitty eyed Marxist, whose country was going from strength to strength, was making fun of him. Thus Basu went in for game theory and did very well from it though his work is worthless. Maybe that's a good thing. Suppose we have the correct 'Revelation principle' and thus a Just 'mechanism' is describable game theoretically. Then, the danger arises that Justice can be spoofed. We have made ourselves vulnerable to a predator or a parasite.
One way out is to say the 'idea of justice' is in a higher complexity class.  But this immediately crashes Arrowvian Social Choice which makes the opposite assumption. Similarly, Public Reason degenerates into pointing at Turing Oracles which might well be Delphic in their ambiguity.

It is not a bad thing to say neither Social Choice nor Public Reason can have an idea of Justice so long as Jurisprudence, as a protocol bound system of 'artificial reason' can have such an idea. After all, useful things are only useful towards specific ends. A hammer can't peel potatoes. A knife is no use in fixing a nail to the wall. So what? Both are useful in specific contexts.

To see how and when Social Choice and Public Reason can and should be incorporated into pedagogy consider the following incident which I witnessed in 1998 in a Middle School in rural Bihar.

When the bell rang for recess a group of boys approached the Games Master who had the key to the Sports shed. They wanted to play cricket.
'Why not football?' the Games Master asked, 'you have only a short time to play and football will give you more exercise. Moreover, everyone has the chance to score a goal whereas with cricket only the batter has a chance to distinguish himself.'
The boys started to argue about whether to play cricket or football. Thus, they were learning,if  not the theory, then the praxis of Democratic Social Choice within a framework or impartial Public Reason. I was amazed at how quickly the level of discussion of these supposedly 'backward' Bihari children rose to a level of rationality and impartiality which few students at the LSE could have shown! True, there was one boy who kept silent and just stood at the side hanging his head and keeping his hands in his pockets. I wondered to myself whether he was perhaps from a religious minority or an oppressed caste. I suppose this is because I was not born in India. I see things with a foreigner's eyes. The last thing I wanted was to embarrass the fellow or draw attention to him. Still, the fact is, I am a Hindu. Love of Akhand Bharat, not just my own Province, is enjoined on me by Sanaatan Dharma. So I addressed the boy in a rough but affectionate manner. 'Hey you! Why so silent?'
'These boys are arguing about whether to play cricket or football', the little urchin replied, 'But I saw all the sports equipment being loaded onto the boot-legger's truck. That is why I'm standing here playing with myself. What else is there to do?'

Just then the bell rang and the boys ran back to their classes. I resolved to shell out a few rupees to get the little tattle-tale knifed before the Headmaster got to hear about what I'd done with the Sports equipment. Public Reason is useful in this manner. We mustn't let the likes of Sen & Nussbaum monopolise it.

Mind it kindly.
Aiyayo.


Sen's parable of the flute.

The idea of Justice is different from the idea of Virtue or the idea of Benevolence or the idea of Pious Conduct. In particular, Justice is linked to justiciability which is the question- 'is a particular issue resolvable by the application of juristic reasoning?' This in turn involves what in Mathematics is called unicity or uniqueness. There must be a unique object, or a set of equivalent objects, which satisfy relevant juristic, or objective, legalistic, requirements otherwise there is no normative tie to action and hence no judgment or prescription as opposed to arbitrary toss of the coin to resolve a matter.

In general, these are 'uncorrelated asymmetries' whereby one agent is uniquely identified as having a superior right or eusocial 'bourgeois' strategy. Here, though the cause of the asymmetry is arbitrary, juristic reasoning is not. Moreover, it can be 'buck-stopped'- i.e. there is a point beyond which no further appeal is allowable. 

Where there is non-uniqueness, ideas of Virtue or Piety or Benevolence may still have purchase, but Justice is de trop. Who killed Cock Robin? 'I' said the sparrow. But if 'sparrow' is non-unique then maybe for any sparrow which killed Cock Robin, there is another sparrow more guilty of that dastardly deed. Equally, all may be both sparrow and Cock Robin while simultaneously being neither or both neither and both. 

What happens if you seek an idea of Justice in which unicity is forbidden? The answer is you get interminable nonsense. As a case in point, consider Sen's parable of the flute-itself inspired by Aristotle's remark that if there are few flutes, you would give them to those who played it best- which goes as follows-
which of three children – Anne, Bob and Carla – should get a flute about which they are quarrelling. Anne claims the flute on the ground that she is the only one of the three who knows how to play it

sadly 'knows how to play the flute' is non-unique. Some one else may turn up who can claim to know how to do it better or one of the other two can claim to be able to learn how to play it better. Finally what is the best type of playing one can do with a flute? Attach it to the lips or insert it in some other orifice?

(the others do not deny this), and that it would be quite unjust to deny the flute to the only one who can actually play it. If that is all you knew, the case for giving the flute to the first child would be strong.

No. Uniqueness is not satisfied.  There is a large class of people who can play the flute one way or another.

In an alternative scenario, it is Bob who speaks up, and defends his case for having the flute by pointing out that he is the only one among the three who is so poor that he has no toys of his own.

But 'poor' is non-unique. Anyway, Bob has a penis. He can manipulate it to urinate in a manner which produces delightful decorative patterns. Call no man poor who has a penis. Women, by contrast, can never be sufficiently compensated for their deficiency in this respect. 

The flute would give him something to play with (the other two concede that they are richer and well supplied with engaging amenities). If you had heard only Bob and none of the others, the case for giving it to him would be strong. In another alternative scenario, it is Carla who speaks up and points out that she has been working diligently for many months to make the flute with her own labour (the others confirm this), and just when she had finished her work, ‘just then’, she complains, ‘these expropriators came along to try to grab the flute away from me’.

'Made the flute' is unique. This is an uncorrelated asymmetry. It is eusocial to uphold 'bourgeois strategies' based on unique solution concepts. That's what the mathematics says.  

If Carla’s statement is all you had heard, you might be inclined to give the flute to her in recognition of her understandable claim to something she has made herself. Having heard all three and their different lines of reasoning, there is a difficult decision that you have to make. Theorists of different persuasions, such as utilitarians, or economic egalitarians, or no nonsense libertarians, may each take the view that there is a straightforward just resolution staring at us here, and there is no difficulty in spotting it. But almost certainly they would respectively see totally different resolutions as being obviously right. 
Is Sen correct?
Would an 'economic egalitarian' give a flute to a kid who can't play a flute? No. That would be stupid. You need to give kids toys they can play with, not ones which will frustrate them yet further.

What about a libertarian? Would he say 'Carla made the flute. Therefore she must keep it for all time even though she can't play the damn thing?' Of course not. The libertarian will tell Carla to sell the flute to Anne who gets utility from it and can transfer utility- that is money- to Carla who may now choose to go into the flute production business. Both Carla and Anna are free to help Bob stop being so poor by finding him remunerative work.

The 'utilitarian hedonist' would not rob Carla of her flute without compensation because Carla would suffer disutility greater perhaps than Anna would gain. This is because one resents the theft of what one regards one's own. The notion of oikeiosis- natural belonging- is relevant here. The problem with Sen's capabilities approach- which focuses on differences in the ability of agents in converting consumption into utility- is that it takes no account of disutility- including the disutility experienced by being the victim of Social Justice which may cause people to exit the jurisdiction. Moreover, there are informational and mimetic effect. More than just the production of flutes may be discontinued if it became known that they would be expropriated on production. Production disutility is closely related to opportunity cost or transfer earnings. Moreover, those who are productive are likely to be more mobile or elastic in response. After all, we all have to eat to live. But we don't necessarily have to work to live if some benevolent Benthamite planner will give us money so as to enjoy our life. 

The purpose of Sen's parable is, I suppose, to critique a naive Aristotelian view- viz that the 'telos' of the flute is that it should be played. If there is a shortage of flutes, they should end up in the hands of the best flute players. But this 'telos' could be achieved both by 'top-down' command or through a decentralized market process. The tyrant could give flutes to the best flautists or else flute owners hire flautists or sell their flutes to them. 

To be fair, Sen is not concerned with Aristotle. He has his sights on his contemporaries. The problem is that he engages only with straw-men of his own creation. It is strange that Sen, who has lived amongst Moral philosophers and Philosophical Economists for more years than I have been alive, nevertheless holds absurd beliefs about his colleagues.

Bob, the poorest, would tend to get fairly straightforward support from the economic egalitarian if he is committed to reducing gaps in the economic means of people.
WTF? How does being given a flute you can't use improve your 'economic means'. You can't sell the thing because nobody will buy a flute which will be immediately expropriated.
On the other hand, Carla, the maker of the flute, would receive immediate sympathy from the libertarian.
She'd receive more than sympathy. A libertarian would explain to her how to calculate her cost price and what sort of mark-up she should apply and how she and Anna can have a mutually beneficial relationship such that Anna's flute recitals drum up business for Carla's flute making business. Bob might earn money working for this new partnership in some capacity.
The utilitarian hedonist may face the hardest challenge, but he would certainly tend to give weight, more than the libertarian or the economic egalitarian, to the fact that Anne’s pleasure is likely to be stronger because she is the only one who can play the flute (there is also the general dictum of ‘waste not, want not’).

If Anna owns other property, she may experience great disutility- indeed she may have an incentive to emigrate- if she witnesses any arbitrary act of expropriation, even one which benefits her. 

Nevertheless, the utilitarian should also recognize that Bob’s relative deprivation could make his incremental gain in happiness from getting the flute that much larger.

What about the disutility arising from being hated by the other kids because they fear more of their toys will be confiscated just because this little beggar is their associate?  

Carla’s ‘right’ to get what she has made may not resonate immediately with the utilitarian, but deeper utilitarian reflection would nevertheless tend to take some note of the requirements of work incentives in creating a society in which utility-generation is sustained and encouraged through letting people keep what they have produced with their own efforts.
No. Deeper utilitarian reflection would note that hedonic pleasure from self-indulgence exceeds that from talking nonsense. In this particular case, the utilitarian hedonist has no strong reason to say anything. He should play with himself instead.
The libertarian’s support for giving the flute to Carla will not be conditional

yes it will. Carla should learn to beat the fuck out of Socialist cunts who try to rob her.  

in the way it is bound to be for the utilitarian on the working of incentive effects,

but the utilitarian's own incentive is to wank 

since a libertarian would take direct note of a person’s right to have what people have produced themselves.

There is no such right. I am paid to cook you a curry.  It is your curry. I'm not allowed to eat it.  

The idea of the right to the fruits of one’s labour

unless one was paid or otherwise motivated to produce those fruits

can unite right-wing libertarians and left-wing Marxists (no matter how uncomfortable each might be in the company of the other).
Actually, it unites everybody. It is a different matter that there can be different ideas about how much tax should be levied on the sale of the fruit's of a person's labour, or imputed income from self-produced goods. But, no one has ever said that stuff should arbitrarily be taken away from the producer and given to someone else. Yes, there was 'War Communism' and, yes, there are Mafias and Armies which live off the land and so on. But there is no philosophy, as opposed to paranoid hate ideology, motivating such things.
The general point here is that it is not easy to brush aside as foundationless any of the claims based respectively on the pursuit of human fulfilment, or removal of poverty, or entitlement to enjoy the products of one’s own labour.
There is no general point here because this parable is not fit for purpose. It could have been made so by adding some details. For example, Sen could have stipulated that Carla made the flute when employed by us. Anna learnt the flute at our direction. Bob's poverty has been caused by some act of omission or commission on our part. In that case, we own the flute. It is ours to dispose off. Suppose we are employed by a Charitable Trust. Then, in disposing of the flute we have to consult the Trust deed. If it says 'reduce inequality of income or wealth' then we are bound to give the flute to Bob who can sell it to Anna. If it says 'inculcate a good work and commercial ethic' then Carla gets the flute. If it says 'encourage the Arts' then it goes to Anna.

Philosophy can't actually endow either magical powers or moral authority.  Sen's parable is silly because our argument about who gets the flute is like an argument over who would win in a fight between Dracula and Spiderman. The thing is puerile though, no doubt, kids expand their imagination and powers of argument by indulging in the debate. 
The different resolutions all have serious arguments in support of them, and we may not be able to identify, without some arbitrariness, any of the alternative arguments as being the one that must invariably prevail.
Very true! We don't know whether Dracula or Spiderman will 'invariably prevail'. That's because puerile arguments aren't decided by 'serious arguments' but a punch-up or my wetting myself or you getting called home by your mum to do your homework.

 In a footnote, Sen notes-
‡ As Bernard Williams has argued, ‘Disagreement does not necessarily have to be overcome.’ Indeed, it ‘may remain an important and constitutive feature of our relations to others, and also be seen as something that is merely to be expected in the light of the best explanations we have of how such disagreement arises.
Williams is right about essentially puerile arguments. Grown ups quickly see which arguments are of the 'Dracula vs Spiderman' type and, provided they genuinely need to agree about something- i.e. solving a coordination problem has a substantial positive sum pay-off- and they agree to 'bracket' certain issues which are not germane.

Williams is wrong to say these 'bracketed' disagreements 'remain an important and constitutive feature of our relations to others' unless a discoordination game of a certain type is being strategically resorted to. But, in that case, we are speaking of a separating equilibrium of an idiographic, not nomothetic sort. It follows that ''second order' theories- i.e. theories about theories- are  useless because nothing is general, everything is specific; nothing is alethic, everything is tactical; pundits may talk yet more shite to say it aint so, but shite it remains.

Consider what Sen says next-
I also want to draw attention here to the fairly obvious fact that the  differences between the three children’s justificatory arguments do not represent divergences about what constitutes individual advantage (getting the flute is taken to be advantageous by each of the children and is accommodated by each of the respective arguments), but about the principles that should govern the allocation of resources in general.
Is Sen correct? My saying something is advantageous to me doesn't make it so. I may say 'I need to take heroin because it is the only thing that helps with my back-pain'. I may believe this statement of mine. But it isn't true.

The principles that 'should govern the allocation of resources in general' can't possibly be based simply on the verbal testimony of kids regarding what is advantageous to them.

It is a fairly obvious fact that 'differences between justifactory arguments' do represent 'divergences about what constitute individual advantage'. An argument premised on the notion that heroin is good for kids diverges very greatly from one any reasonable  person would accept.

In this case, what Bob wants is a toy he can play with. He can't play the flute. Getting it will only frustrate him. He is wrong about what is advantageous to him.

Carla can't play the flute either. But she can sell it and make more flutes. It is not advantageous for her to retain title to the flute if she can't transfer that title.

Anna can play the flute. But, she can also pay for it. It is advantageous for her to learn to buy things she can use. It might turn her mind to excelling at flute playing so as to make a living from Music.

Sen thinks the misology he attributes to his imaginary children represents some profound clash of principals regarding resource allocation.
They are about how social arrangements should be made and what social institutions should be chosen, and through that, about what social realizations would come about.
Should implies could. There is no point saying 'if you are starving, you should eat caviare and truffle chocolates. They are so tasty you will soon get your appetite back'.
It is very expensive to change social arrangements and  social institutions. Moreover, it requires a lot of coercive power. Talk, on the other hand, is cheap.

Maharishi Mahesh Yogi made billions teaching people to levitate. He also launched a Political Party which contested every constituency in the U.K. Apparently, his 'yogic flying' promoted World Peace.
Sen may not have made as much money as the Maharishi. But if he thinks that 'should' needn't imply 'could' then his political philosophy is on a par with that of the Yogi. Actually, the Yogi comes out ahead. After all, levitating is cool.
It is not simply that the vested interests of the three children differ (though of course they do), but that the three arguments each point to a different type of impartial and non-arbitrary reason.
Kids have no 'vested interests'. They need to do certain things- like playing with other kids. In this case,  Bob and Carla can dance together as Anna plays the flute.

Sen's 'three arguments' don't point to 'different types of impartial and non-arbitrary reason' at all. Rather they show why 'the bourgeois strategy' is evolutionarily stable. Property rights are an example of an 'uncorrelated asymmetry'. They reduce wasteful conflict. Game theory is a first order 'impartial and non-arbitrary' type of reasoning. It can't get us very far but it can does get us out of a puerile type of Punditry's 'Dracula vs Spiderman' cul de sac of 'Public Reason'.

Where an 'uncorrelated asymmetry' exists- i.e. a situation where one agent is uniquely identified (e.g only Anna made the flute whereas Bob could suddenly become richer than Clara and thus 'poorest' does not uniquely identify anybody)- then there can be a 'public signal' to this effect which enables Society to move to a better 'correlated equilibrium'. Nobel Laureate Robert Aumann introduced the concept in 1974- i.e. before Sen turned senile. Society gains greatly when it keeps records of who owns what- as Adam Smith recognised- and upholds the sanctity of private property. China in the Eighties realised that what Marx actually said was 'to each according to his contribution' and that property rights should be governed by the 'uncorrelated asymmetry' of who actually made what, or caused it to be made using their resources. Since then China has made great strides while Sen-tentious Socialist ideas continue to be a great roadblock in rural India's upliftment. 

Fairness and impartiality begins when we recognise that while 'who is poorest' or 'who is most deserving' are subjective matters, 'who made what' is objective. It is something everybody can agree on. Sen refuses to see this so as to write utter nonsense.
This applies not only to the discipline of fairness in the Rawlsian original position, but also to other demands of impartiality, for example Thomas Scanlon’s requirement that our principles satisfy ‘what others could not reasonably reject’.
Our sense of 'fairness' is what gets pruned back by choice under scarcity. Kids grow out of whining about unfairness just as they grow out feeling embarrassed by their parents.

Nobody's principles satisfy 'what others could not reasonably reject' because it is perfectly reasonable to say that principles arise from hypocrisy or 'preference falsification' or that they are essentially ontologically dysphoric. Indeed, one can justify holding antagonomic views simply on the principle that it is right that there be dissent within Society.


Saturday, 24 March 2018

Harsanyi on Rawls

Harsanyi critiqued Rawls in an article published in 1975



The maximin (maximise minimum benefit) principle is silly. As Harsanyi points out you'd never cross a road because at least you can be sure you'll continue to live rather than go under a bus.


Actually both maximin and Bayesian expected utility maximisation are silly. Regret Minimisation is the way to go. Unlike Utilitarianism or Contractarianism, which focus on the rational self interest of the individual, Regret, by its nature, extends to people currently strangers whom you may come to care about. It includes future generations as well as the debt one may come to feel one owes ones ancestors or preceptors. It excludes devoting costly cognitive resources to 'maximising' anything. It provides a decision rule which militates against worrying too much about decision rules but just decides things already.l

Both Rawls and Harsanyi were wrong about what sort of Society impartial people (in a closed society) would choose. It is one which would feature an incentive compatible Social Insurance scheme. This scheme might have to be changed from time to prevent 'adverse selection' or some other sort of harmful 'gaming of the system'.
Nobody would want to go any further than this. It is silly to say every policy prescription should be evaluated on how it affects the weakest. This just opens the door to Gandhian or Eco-Feminist or other virtue signalling nutjobs and blathershites.

Still, Rawls and Harsanyi did well reasoned 'first order' work. This gives their oeuvre an imperative force lacking in 'second order discourse' critiquing first order research for a careerist purpose.

Harsyani gives the following example of how the difference
Both these views are fucked in the head. Common sense tells us that if the Doctor is in private practice, he will give the drug to the guy who will pay more, or for whom he feels more affection, or the one who can confer a greater reputational advantage. In consequence, the Doctor will enjoy more prestige, power or pelf and thus more people will be attracted into the profession. Letting some stupid Philosopher impose a decision rule is silly because then more people will study Philosophy rather than Medicine.

Suppose the two patients are identical in every respect but come from rural Bihar. Then you should toss a coin, hand over the medicine to the winner but assure both that they have received the drug and that it will take a couple of days to take effect. You immediately run away as fast as you can because the relatives of the guy who didn't get the drug will be gunning for you.  The other patient's relatives will also be chasing you- but only for the gentle purpose of holding you to ransom because, obviously, you are a good Doctor and can make a lot of money.

My point is that Human Societies have evolved so that decision makers are held responsible for their actions. The fact that you acted according to a decision rule is irrelevant. A machine that follows a decision rule may still be smashed to pieces by someone adversely affected. A Doctor, who by an act of omission or commission, causes harm may be held to account. The proper course is to assemble all concerned parties and explain the situation. If no 'decision rule' is accepted then perhaps a coin may be tossed or physical force will resolve the issue one way or the other.

Deciding not to act is still a decision. Those who decide not to denounce Ethical philosophers as worthless shitheads may have to bear severe consequences. If we don't chase 'virtue signallers' away, public policy will degenerate. It is not enough to vote for Trump, micturating mightily on Moral Philosophy too is required.

Economics can be a first order idiographic discipline. It can use maths and stats to lower costs and boost useful output. However the moment it tries to be 'moral' it fucks up.

Harsanyi's 'equiprobability' approach is as foolish as Rawls- indeed it cashes out as it in a steady state economy with no convexities, no uncertainty and diminishing marginal utility.
Harsanyi says that a wealthy capitalist who prefers capitalism isn't making a 'moral' choice.
This is silly. The capitalist will still choose Capitalism with compulsory Social Insurance because he knows this option is feasible. The unskilled worker may choose otherwise because he believes Capitalism is based on secretly sodomising workers as part of a Satanic ritual. There is nothing moral about such judgments. The reflect differences in knowledge,
Expected utility does not exist. The future is radically Uncertain. If expected utilities could really be accurately computed then so could future asset prices. Stock Market crashes would not be possible once Rocket Scientists ran Hedge Funds.

Laplace's indifference principle- assigning equal probabilites to outcomes we have no further knowledge about- doesn't really tame Uncertainty, as Harsanyi assumes because we don't know most outcomes and can't even imagine them. That's okay. We only feel regret for bad decisions- not for things that were always impossible for us. Using either maximin or expected utility implies that we can have a type of knowledge we can't possibly have if we evolved by natural selection. It's morality is the morality of the angels and therefore heteronomous and fundamentally superstitious. Human morality can't hinge on the assumption that we have Supernatural powers. Why not simply attribute sickness to the 'evil eye' and murrain to witchcraft?

Rawls thought the virtue of his approach was that it avoided mention of probability. But, human beings implicitly act on the basis of nothing else. We do not possess the agential inerrancy of the God of the Occassionalist. As Harsanyi writes-

We can't talk to our ancestors or those of our preceptors who have passed away. Nor can we talk to our distant descendants. Nevertheless, we can imagine ourselves feeling great regret for some action we take today which we could not justify to them in Heaven. Regret minimization captures this aspect of our actual, lived, human morality.

Rawlsian maximin and Harsanyi's equiprobability can't do so. Our interlocutors will be incredulous that we were ever so devoid of commonsense as to choose so obviously flawed a decision rule.

There can't be any justification for urging Society to adopt a decision rule based wholly on maximising something fundamentally uncertain. Indeed, the safer course is 'to first do no harm'- i.e. don't urge Society to do anything on the basis of some silly academic availability cascade whose sole purpose is to ration clerical employment or create a separating equilibrium on the basis of a costly and socially inutile signal.

Piecemeal, idiographic, first order research, on the other hand, can yield local improvements even if this involves the use nomothetically unsafe assumptions or procedures- e.g. that interpersonal comparisons of utility. We expect Judges and Juries and other officials to routinely makes such comparisons rather than take refuge in the Rule Book.  The market itself is based on 'transferable utility' in the shape of money. Judgments in Tort cases depend upon putting a cash value, and thus setting a cardinal scale, for disutility suffered or utility foregone. First order 'expert knowledge' can help guide such judgements. Nomothetic decision rules, by contrast, could vitiate the judicial function. It would create 'loopholes' and make the system more gameable. It would change the ethos of stare decisis defeasible jurisprudence. It would also negatively impact the Insurance industry and large portions of the Financial Sector. Capitalism is as much about this type of institutional culture as it is about Markets as an allocative device. A tradition of trust, public service and uberimae fidei professional integrity in Judicial and Financial Services would be placed at risk. Why? The Rules based approach is a type of akrebia which, in the final analysis, blames the victim for being at the wrong end of an information asymmetry.
A 'comparative' approach doesn't improve matters. All that happens is that Akrebia can choose a metric which shows it performs better than Oikonomia. My own claim that I am a more beautiful and talented woman than Beyonce- which I admit is not blindingly obvious to everyone- arises out of my use of metric which gives higher weighting to scrotum size. It is very sexist and racist and orientalist and hegemonic of you not to accept my metric.

Any nomothetic theory concerned with the real world faces ambiguities because there is a trade-off between precision and significance. A precise theory has no significance. A significant theory is imprecise and more or less 'anything goes'. Utilitarianism is no better or worse than any other decision rule or 'comparative' approach.
As a matter of fact, ordinal rankings are just as problematic as cardinal ones. Rawls thinks it is easy to identify the least well off. It isn't at all. Consider India's affirmative action program. Almost every dominant caste is clamouring to be classed as an oppressed tribe, or religious minority, or as 'educationally backward'. Farmers pay no Income tax in India and get free electricity in some States because they are all supposed to be very poor and oppressed. Very wealthy people have been discovered to be 'agriculturists' for tax or other administrative purposes.

Moreover, once policy makers or Judges use a particular instrument to identify a specific social or economic category, that instrument will lose its predictive power because the system will be gamed. Indeed, the policy measure will impose an increasing deadweight loss on Society. Consider rent control legislation. Notionally, it helps poor tenants and hurts wealthy landlords. In practice, the opposite may happen. Additionally, the housing stock degrades and a 'doughnut' effect arises whereby inner city areas become uninhabitable because of crime and crack-houses and a growing concentration of indigents who can't pay local taxes.

If 'rules based' akrebia is a bad idea, then 'second order rules' are even worse because they can be used to stalemate even the most needful and widely accepted of initiatives. There will always be antagonomic ideologues or moral entrepreneurs eager to push themselves forward by claiming that some salutary action offends against some sacred cow- like Liberty, or Fraternity, or Equality or some other such bullshit. No doubt, the actual blocking will be done by some political coalition or vested interest group but that changes nothing. Rules based Akrebia kills. Idiographic Oiknonomia, if Regret minimizing, gives Life.

Harsanyi's criticism of Rawls was published almost 50 years ago. He concludes thus-
One thing not apparent to Harsanyi was that there are important Evolutionary reasons why anything which is co-evolved will be so quick to change as to be 'unhackable' at the macro level so as to baffle a parasite or predator. The informational requirement for the application of 'moral principles' or 'Political ideologies' are the same as those for highly immoral principles and Mafias. Our true preferences are secret even from ourselves. Our fundamental values and allegiances can change in a heartbeat once a social tipping point is reached.

One can make a living pretending to be some sort of moral guide or political philosopher and, because of widespread Preference Falsification, some such pretence may appear to be widely accepted. But the thing is a sham. We consider only those theories as impinging on Morality and Ethics which counsel the most mischievous course of action under any given circumstances. This is helpful to us because when facing judgement we can appeal to these vaunted Moral philosophers to raise 'honest doubts' which are actually wholly dishonest and thus hope to stalemate the proceedings.

Friday, 23 March 2018

Rawl's disease and Sen's diagnosis

Sen's criticism of Rawls is based on a fallacy- viz that a diagnosis has to be perfect before it can validly identify something as belonging to an ideal type. This has never been the case. Tanquam ex ungue leonem- from seeing the claw, the presence of the lion is known- is an ancient saying. No doctor ever waits to develop a perfect diagnosis but proceeds on the balance of likelihoods. A hypochondriac may feel disappointed with his Doctor when the latter dismisses him as 'perfectly healthy' after a perfunctory examination. But a diagnosis can only be perfected on the autopsy table- not a desirable outcome, even for the hypochondriac itching to be proved right. 'I told you I was ill' is a poor epitaph for one's gravestone. It is better that one accepts an imperfect diagnosis that one is in perfect health- and then to do something worthwhile with one's life- rather than kill oneself in the hope that the coroner will find one really did have some terrible disease.

Sen takes a different view-
If a diagnosis of perfectly just social arrangements is incurably problematic, then the entire strategy of transcendental institutionalism is deeply impaired, even if every conceivable alternative in the world were available.
Transcendental institutionalism doesn't exist but, to keep Sen happy, let us say that it does. But, what does it cash out as? For Rawls, it yields two simple 'deontological' rules which are relatively simple to apply- for example, in a Cost Benefit Analysis or in a Judicial context. Since Rawls was a Boston Brahmin of clerical bent, it is no surprise that Rawlsian rules aren't very different from Gandhian or Buddhist 'sarvodaya'- viz. testing any given proposal on the basis of its impact on the least well off and upholding such liberties as can be extended to all. Of course, as in the theological case, this seemingly bleeding heart rule-set quickly cashes out as 'the bourgeois strategy' because the class that enforces it really is composed of precious little snowflakes servicing whose Student Loans would engross more and more of the Economy's surplus value.

Still, such snowflakes- whatever the theological or ideological colour of their alma mater- can always hypocritically agree that these delusively 'bleeding heart' rules can be 'plurally grounded' (to use Sen's terminology) because there can be  an overlapping consensus (to use Rawls's) between people with different values and beliefs regarding the utility of those rules, provided 'utility is transferable'- i.e. high bargaining power or 'Shapley value' minorities can be bought off.

Sen believes his 'idea' is better than Rawls's 'theory' because it doesn't even commit to 'rules', so its hypocrisy can never be exposed.
Why? Rules can be 'institutionalised' and Institutions can take on a life of their own. Like Thomas Becket who was appointed Archbishop of Canterbury to advance the King's interests, but who switched allegiance to the Church; such Institutions have the potential to turn into a check or countervailing power against those who seek to instrumentalize it.

No doubt, 'Social Justice warriors' may pretend otherwise and claim that such and such institution has only recently been subverted by neo-liberalism and that they are struggling to re-establish the previous eco-feminist status quo ante 'bourgeois strategy' type equilibrium. This claim is purely tactical. Everybody knows that it is easier to reclaim property fraudulently usurped than grab something which never belonged to you because evolution has more or less hardwired that game theoretic cognitive bias in us. Anyway, what you collectively grab will soon be grabbed from you- as Soviet and Chinese peasants soon found.

Sen's contribution is a claim of this type. He knows Institutions are judged on the basis of fairness in a manner that people are not. No one objects to a person's tendency to interact more, or marry, within his own class or ethnicity. However, one might well object if an Institution is revealed to have this sort of institutional bias.

Thus by moving away from rules and institutions, Sen thinks he's helping by muddying the waters even more. But, this is old wine in new bottles. Unjust institutions have always been justified by saying 'institutions don't matter. The people will make equitable adjustments among themselves.' Thus, when Sen returned to India in the Fifties, the intelligentsia was saying- 'we needn't bother with land reform. Vinobha Bhave and J.P are getting the landlords to hand over land to the poorest of the poor. We needn't bother with the agricultural sector but can instead devote ourselves to dreams of capital intensive industrial development financed by freezing or squeezing real wages a la the Sen-Dobb thesis.'

How does Sen pull of his trick? He makes 'the Perfect' the enemy of 'the Good'- though perfection, as opposed to fairness, has never been a desiderata for Human Justice. Why? Perfect Justice is global not local. Suppose, having suffered a tort, I go not to the Magistrate's Court but that of the Archangel Gabriel. The Magistrate would only looks at the facts of the case and makes a decision which I might feel to be fair or unfair. The Archangel, however, immediately knows that inter alia, I lust after my neighbour's goat and causes me to grow horns on my head by way of condign punishment.

We are in no hurry to encounter 'Perfect Justice'. 'Use every man after his desert and who will escape whipping?' A fair means of resolving a dispute- even if stochastic, as by tossing an unbiased coin- solves a coordination problem. Institutions, precisely because they can operate according to impartial rules, represent a Schelling focal solution.

Sen takes a different view-

For example, the two principles of justice in John Rawls’s classic investigation of ‘justice as fairness’, which will be more fully discussed in Chapter 2, are precisely about perfectly just institutions in a world where all alternatives are available.
Rawls hasn't described any perfectly just institutions at all. He hasn't said 'Universities should be constituted in such and such a way'. 'Courts should operate in such and such a way'.  The Police and Armed Forces need to be organised in such and such a way.

Rawls gave a 'founding myth'- like the myth of Er- and whether we call this a canonical, or Schelling focal, solution to a coordination problem, or describe it as a Straussian 'noble lie'- the fact is we can all choose to adhere to Rawls's two decision rules.

We won't because, as Aristotle pointed out, nomos doesn't matter (save to pedagogues), physis does. Conventions don't matter if Entry and Exit are free. People vote with their feet. They quit places obsessed with nomos to go to places where physis is what people care about. Why? Science and Technology and Enterprise do matter. They can make the world a better place for all of us.
However, what we do not know is whether the plurality of reasons for justice would allow one unique set of principles of justice to emerge in the original position. The elaborate exploration of Rawlsian social justice, which proceeds step by step from the identification and establishment of just institutions, would then get stuck at the very base
Sen is being silly. Some guy says 'I propose these 2 rules- if you like, you can read my 10,000 page book justifying them'. Plural grounding or 'overlapping consensus' means we either agree or propose some amendment or alternative. Nobody- except an academic- has any duty to read those10,000 pages of shite. In practice, some jurisdiction may adopt those rules. If it proves beneficial, more and more people ('metics') will migrate there. If it is flawed in some way, people will leave. This is 'Tiebout sorting'.

Rawls, relying on Sen and his ilk, had indeed thought that a certain sort of Economic Institution- like India's Planning Commission- could be fit for purpose in a functioning Democracy under the Rule of Law. Young Indian Harvard students of the period- people like Gurcharan Das- initially accepted this idiocy of Rawls's. After all, a future Planning Commission Chief, Sukhamoy Chakroborty, had been praised to the skies by Samuelson who thought the Soviet Union might not just catch up but surpass America with respect to material living standards. Experience cured Das of his illusions- as he records in 'India unbound'. Rawls too was disabused of the notion that mathematical economics was like Physics. No 'Institutions' could be supervenient on its apodictic findings such that 'Growth' could be frictionlessly traded off with 'Equity' in a manner which yielded a golden path.

Still, savants could propose such rules on the basis of deep cogitation and other people, with different values and beliefs, could- on the basis of rational discussion- adhere to those rules.

Sen acknowledges that Rawls drew back from his initial, naive, faith in a Lefty or 'bleeding heart' version of Samuelson type ergodic theory. Sen writes-

In his later writings, Rawls makes some concessions to the recognition that ‘citizens will of course differ as to which conceptions of political justice they think most reasonable’. Indeed, he goes on to say in The Law of Peoples (1999): The content of public reason is given by a family of political conceptions of justice, and not by a single one. There are many liberalisms and related views, and therefore many forms of public reason specified by a family of reasonable political conceptions. Of these, justice as fairness, whatever its merits, is but one.
It is not, however, clear how Rawls would deal with the far-reaching implications of this concession. The specific institutions, firmly chosen for the basic structure of society, would demand one specific resolution of the principles of justice, in the way Rawls had outlined in his early works, including The Theory of Justice (1971).* Once the claim to uniqueness of the Rawlsian principles of justice is dropped (the case for which is outlined in Rawls’s later works), the institutional programme would clearly have serious indeterminacy, and Rawls does not tell us much about how a particular set of institutions would be chosen on the basis of a set of competing principles of justice that would demand different institutional combinations for the basic structure of the society. Rawls could, of course, resolve that problem by abandoning the transcendental institutionalism of his earlier work (particularly of The Theory of Justice), and this would be the move that would appeal most to this particular author.† But I am afraid I am not able to claim that this was the direction in which Rawls himself was definitely heading, even though some of his later works raise that question forcefully.
What Sen is neglecting to mention is that if  (as Rawls gullibly assumed,' General facts and common sense about human social life and general conclusions of science (including economics and psychology) that are uncontroversial' exist universally- i.e. if Econ is nomothetic not idiographic, which would be the case if Evolution is a false theory- then, sure!, 'transcendental institutions' would necessarily exist. 'Capacitance diversity' would have no survival value. Everything should and would be channelised because Knightian Uncertainty would be but a mirage.  However, if Evolution is false, some type of Occassionalism must be true. Transcendence would be the best thing for the mind to seek.

Sen is himself basing his 'idea of justice' on a supposed 'general fact' of human social life- which is that human beings always and everywhere want to extinguish instances of 'remediable' manifest injustice. This is not common experience nor common sense. 

If we elide the ignorant part of Rawls- as we elide the ignorant part of Kant- we still get, if not a deontological rule, then still something that is action guiding if only in a fuzzy sense or else something which cashes out as a virtue ethic. 

Thus, the fact that we know- from Physical experiments- that Kant's notions of Space and Time and theory of 'incongruent counterparts' are wrongheaded, as, indeed, is the whole Phenomenological project- this knowledge doesn't wholly nullify the imperative aspect of  Kant's work. Similarly, once we strip the bogus, nomothetic, Econ out of Rawls, we still get something original, closely reasoned, and thus thought provoking. Because Kant and Rawls are 'first order theorists' they retain an imperative force. Sen, by contrast is advancing a 'second order theory' critiquing an idiosyncratically caricatured first order theory which we already know must be false because it held that Econ was nomothetic and thus had 'general facts and conclusions'.

Why does Sen think the objection he raises to the later Rawls  doesn't nullify his own project? A 'remedial injustice' is either a Pareto improvement or it isn't. If it is, then it more properly described as an inefficiency arising out of remediable ignorance. If it isn't, then there is a concurrency problem. Which injustice should we tackle first? Is it not unjust to hurt x, who currently profits from the injustice we are about to tackle, rather than hurt y, who may have less 'Voice' or other 'countervailing power', by tackling the injustice from which y currently benefits?

Sen may feel his 'idea of Justice' isn't formally axiological. But, if it is action guiding, it faces a concurrency problem of a type which Public Reason can't solve because it itself is a case of Djikstra's starving philosophers. On the other hand, if Sen's theory is not action guiding then what is it? An advertisement for a product which does not exist? But why devote scarce resources to such an advertisement save for some corrupt chrematistic purpose? Or is our 'Mother Theresa of Economics' knowingly doing precisely that, not ad majorem Dei gloriam, but out of sheer unbridled narcissism?

One charitable answer is that Sen, because of his great age, thinks radical 'indeterminacy' to be a scandal for a research programme. It may be that Leftists in the Fifties genuinely believed in deterministic theories which, like Bazarov, they held to be required by, or supportive of,  their own atheism.

However, for mathematics- a subject Sen had a natural affinity with- indeterminacy has not been a scandal since the Thirties. The same can be said for pluralism. Anyone with a modicum of mathematical training can always rescue any first order Research Program in the Social Sciences by applying a sort of 'Reverse Mathematics' and winnowing out assumptions or axioms that are not necessary for it to be useful.  This is the proper task of a critique or 'second order theory'. Sen is critiquing Rawls but refusing to do this necessary work. The irony is that Rawls drew upon Sen's own work to persist in error. Perhaps, Sen suffers cognitive dissonance in this respect. He was proud to be cited by the more famous an academic but this pride blinded him to his own, second order, merely emulous error. Mimetic desire prevented Sen from repairing Rawls's substantive theory. Yet, the 'Idea of Justice' can't be read save as, not so much a commentary on Rawls, but rather a cowardly retreat from the task of doing the sort of idiographic Economics which might give Rawlsian imperatives a concrete model. No doubt, it is this ironic parapraxis, which has Sen use the word 'diagnosis' again and again in the Introductory chapter of a book equally crippled by the Economistic disease which vitiated Rawls's moral argument.

Oikonomia- a dispensation which is harmoniously constructed and thus 'Divine' in some sense- is always at odds with Akrebia- narrow, rules based, rigidity.

 Good Institutions develop and systematise Equitable remedies which bridge the gap between nomothetic rules and an idiographic reality. This is 'sound policy' or 'Niti'. Sen, given his profession, could have contributed to this sort of Economics. But this would have involved reforming Institutions and making them fit for purpose. Like Mohammad Yunus crying fie upon Dr.Akula's for profit Micro-finance scheme, Sen could have been a whistle-blower regarding academo-bureaucratic rent-seeking based on the compilation and manipulation of comparative metrics. Sen could have acted as check on Junk Social Science. Instead, he migrated from Econ. to Philosophy's la la land so as to evade all responsibility- because, you see, the people have this overpowering tropism to eradicate remediable injustice. Thus, if Sen's Credentialist swindle hasn't been eradicated, it must be what the people want it because it is just- not perfectly so, but comparatively. But then comparisons are odious.