Thursday 27 October 2022

Siddharth Varadarajan's latest scoop

 Siddhartha Varadarajan having withdrawn bizarre allegations against Meta, is intent on winning back his reputation as a serious journalist with an article on Kejriwal's clever demand for Lakshmi and Ganesha to be represented on Indian currency notes.

In the race to the bottom that now seems to define

the Wire's journalism? That's not exactly news. 

Indian politics, a new depth has been plumbed by the Aam Aadmi Party’s Arvind Kejriwal with his utterly cynical and bizarre assertion that the Indian economy can be made to prosper if the photos of Laxmi and Ganesh are added to currency notes.

This is smart. Kejriwal is reminding voters in Gujarat that he, not Modi, is a genuine Bania who understands money and can bring prosperity.  He mentions the other great Bania- Mahatma Gandhi- and says he should be depicted on the back side of the note. There is an element of satire here but also a reminder that Kejriwal started off as an anti-corruption campaigner. Demonetization broke the back of that particular bandwagon but Kejriwal is nimble enough to jump on  to any other 'rath' if that's what voters want. 


Since this irrational claim, presented in the form of a proposal, is calculated to annoy and embarrass the Bharatiya Janata Party which believes it alone has the right to flaunt ‘Hindu’ credentials’, BJP spokespersons have responded by telling people that Kejriwal is actually ‘anti-Hindu’.

Which gives him extra publicity. Win win. 

The evidence cited to back up this accusation does not speak well of the BJP. They say he sought to curb air pollution during Diwali by banning the use of firecrackers. Or that one of his ministers repeated the vows Dr Ambedkar took when he converted to Buddhism – the same Ambedkar that Narendra Modi claims to be a disciple of.

Kejriwal sacked the Minister who was vowing not to worship Ganesh and Hanuman- which was silly because they are Buddhist deities, worshipped in China and Japan, just as much as they are Hindu or Jain. Bringing up the currency note issue shows Kejriwal can think on his feet. 

The BJP has also accused AAP of being a “poor carbon copy of the original”, an accusation that does the original no credit.

Because the ruling party of a big country aint anything to be proud off. You should aim to having zero seats in Parliament.  


Meanwhile, India’s Hindus, most of whom have seen their personal economic fortunes plummet despite the multitude of gods and goddesses adorning their walls, should be forgiven for wondering who on earth they should trust the keys of the country with.

The Wire has secret emails sent by India's Hindus to their gods and goddesses which prove Sid's claim to the hilt. Meanwhile Modi still faces no challenger in 2024.  


The last time India witnessed a crazy proposal about money was in 2016, when Modi decided withdrawing 80% of the currency notes in circulation (that too without having new notes available as replenishment) would spur the Indian economy by ending black money and curbing corruption. Like Kejriwal, he too was hoping the blind faith of people would help him hoodwink them.

The BJP won big as a result. It appears that anything Sid thinks is stupid is actually clever while stuff that Sid swears is true and properly documented has been fabricated by a lunatic.


Just as Kejriwal’s followers insist in seeing virtue in his mad idea,

it's a smart move. I don't say it will sway voters but it shows Kejriwal is in it to win it.  

Modi’s bhakts desperately clutched at the fiction of the new Rs 2000 notes carrying embedded microchips which could communicate with satellites and reveal to the authorities any unauthorised horde that is not in a bank – even if buried 200 feet underground.

No doubt these rumors were fabricated by Wire staff.  

The end result was that the economy’s growth prospects got buried, while corruption never ended.

The economy grew. What was killed off was Anna Hazare type craziness. 

In introductory macroeconomics, we are taught that money is

Credit. Commodity money, on the other hand may be 

a store of value, a medium of transaction and a unit of account

but its intrinsic value may exceed its face value in which case it won't be used as a medium of exchange. 

Kejriwal has added a fourth function which central banks around the world may want to study: it can be a medium of benediction too, provided the Hindu goddess of wealth and Hinduism’s divine remover of obstacles are duly portrayed.

In which case there is lower velocity of circulation and hence higher seigniorage. That's good for the Government.  


Of course, monetary economists are bound to ask whether the quantum of benediction will be a function of the total money supply

only the proportion of the monetary stock which is replaced matters iff velocity of circulation changes. This is unlikely.  

(presumably the more photos of Lakshmi and Ganesh in circulation, the greater the blessings which will be showered),

Presumably, Sid received invisible emails from Meta confirming this view. 

 

in which case the Friedman-Schwarz Quantity Theory of Money, MV = PY,

PT. Y is substituted for convenience. But Friedman was wrong about super-neutrality with respect to velocity. So transactions aren't really independent. 

can be replaced with MV = ॐPY, where ॐ is the ‘blessings multiplier’ that boosts nominal GDP beyond what the money supply and velocity of circulation predict.

Expectations can boost T. Blessings could have that effect. One could bring in 'nudge' theory here.  

It would also be interesting to see how the Kejriwal Theory of Money will handle business cycles, where the economy goes into recession.

Have a short sharp shakeout- call it Shiva's tandava. Recessions are good if you get rid of shitty management and improve factor mobility.  Get all the 'divaliyas' (bankruptcies) over quickly so Divali represents the turning of a new leaf. 

Would the blessings multiplier be boosted above its normal value by divine intervention so that the Reserve Bank of India and the Department of Expenditure can sit back as Lakshmi and Ganesha work their magic and the economy revives?

Maybe. We don't know what would happen if a genuine Bania- not a Gandhian nutjob- ran the country.  


Kejriwal cites the presence of Ganesha on the (now withdrawn) 20,000 Indonesian rupiah note to argue that if a country where Hindus are barely 2% of the population can seek the elephant god’s blessings, why can’t India.



The last time I heard an Indian politician praise Indonesia’s money was when a BJP leader I know cited Ganesha and Garuda (the name of the country’s national airline) to me, to argue that Indonesia’s Muslims may have converted to Islam but they have ‘not forgotten their Hindu culture’ – unlike India’s Muslims, he added quickly.

What was cool about Indonesia was Hindus and Muslims working together to kill Communists.  Apparently the Indonesians put in the Ganesha symbol at the time of the 1997 devaluation crisis. It seemed to work. 

Perhaps Kejriwal met the same leader or has friends in the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (because the Indonesia obsession is a shakha staple) but had he looked into the actual effect of Ganesha’s blessings on the Indonesian economy, he may be disappointed. The fact is that there has been no Ganesha on any Indonesian currency note since 2008 and yet the Indonesians are twice as rich as the people of India.

Because they took the time and trouble to kill Commies in a methodical manner. Also IMF tough love worked a treat in 1998. The country got rid of Suharto, much to Stiglitz's discomfiture.  

Perhaps Ganesha’s blessings operate in the monetary sphere long after he’s gone. Or perhaps they do not operate at all.

Or perhaps Sid has been reading invisible emails from senior officials at Meta or Secret Capitalist HQ or Fascism Central.  

The BJP says Kejriwal’s proposal is a ploy to fool Hindus before the upcoming municipal elections in Delhi.

It would be better for the City to have the same party in power in both the Legislature and the Municipality. Delhi voters are smart- at least if they are poor.  

They may be right. He is be a “poor carbon copy”

So poor, he won Delhi and then Punjab. The guy is just 54 years old.  

but at least the BJP is tacitly admitting that the original Hindutva party uses Hinduism as a ploy at election time.

Whereas the Wire has been insisting Hinduism is actually Nazism and the BJP plans to set up Death Camps all over the place. 

And does a much better job at it.

Not really. Gehlot and KCR have shown that other parties can appeal directly to crucial 'high caste' vote banks and foster pride in regional variants of Hinduism. Hindutva's appeal fades when battles over reservations gain salience. More importantly, by 2026, when the 87th amendment runs out, there could be seat redistribution from the South to the North. That will concentrate minds. Still, Modi is safe enough for the moment. By 2029, Kejriwal will be ready to make his move. Meanwhile, the Wire might keep getting subsidized so as to come up with yet more scoops based on phantom emails from Nazi Central Office. 

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