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Saturday, 23 November 2024

Impredicativity & Econ

Impredicativity arises where a causal factor is also its own effect or the effect of the thing it is supposed to cause.

Development Economics and Theories of Inequality are utterly shit because they are nothing but impredicativity from start to finish.

Why are some people poor or some societies less economically developed than others? Some answers might be

1) Education
2) Opportunities
3) Institutions
4) Geography/Race (less fashionable now)

Sadly, the first three depend on Income. So, saying poverty or underdevelopment is caused by poor Education, Opportunities or Institutions just cashes out as saying poverty is caused by low Income- i.e. poverty. Worse, improving any of the first three may actually increase poverty or the development gap. A poor country which invests heavily in education may end up with either too many unemployable graduates or else it may be subsidizing emigration in a manner which leaves it poorer and less able to develop. Opportunities have increased, but that opportunity has to do with fucking off or doing sweet fuck all while grumbling about Neo-Liberalism and the corruption of the elites. Better institutions may mean less corruption and nobody being allowed to set up a business and create jobs because jobs simply aren't equitable, supportive of diversity and inclusivity, not to mention environmentally sustainable. Moreover, good institutions feature good checks and balances. In other words, even if one branch of government makes a useful decision, other branches can ensure its implementation is endless delayed. True, a rich country can have good institutions which aren't shit. But this is because the rich have the resources to gain countervailing power over Institutions which are so good they fuck up the commonweal.  

What of the fourth causative factor- viz. Race/Geography- i.e. old fashioned Racism? Sadly, the same Race or geographic area can support either opulence or subsistence. Everything depends on whether, at the margin, poverty is growing faster than wealth. Nevertheless, the story here is still 'poverty causes poverty. Underdevelopment causes Underdevelopment'. Economists in this line of work are useless and stupid.

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