A year ago, most people would have thought a Biden led summit for democracy would have been a P.R triumph. A signal would have been sent that the ideals of the United Nations (as the anti Nazi alliance was christened around the time Biden was born) were once again going to help shape the World. However, Biden's first year in office has been characterized by an unprecedented collapse in American power as well as the creation and consolidation of a vast Eurasian bloc comprised of Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran which will combat American influence by any and every means possible. The State Department, it is true, sent a strong message to America's Arab friends that they should ignore any bullshit declaration that might be made there. However, when Pakistan refused its invitation at the last moment, though it had campaigned vigorously for an invite, an even stronger signal was sent. The Army, which naturally wants to keep good ties with the Pentagon, had been overruled by Imran Khan either because of Chinese pressure or because Biden had snubbed him by not giving him even a phone call.
It would also appear that the Arabs did not pull strings in Islamabad to save the face of Uncle Sam. This suggests they have their own cozy relationship with the Chinese which gives them some strategic independence from Washington.
The outcome of all this, much to the chagrin of Modi haters in America, is that the Summit turned out to be a gift to India. Bangladesh had not been invited and sanctions against some Bangladeshi officials will have the effect of pushing that country down the same road as Myanmar where Obama's protege Aung San Suu Kyi now faces a stiff jail sentence. Thailand too was not invited and the Thais are vocal in their anger. Malaysia doesn't seem to be crowing about having attended. The Philippines did renew its State of Forces agreement with the US and still needs American help in Mindanao. However other ASEAN countries feel snubbed. They can take heart from Indonesia's declaration that Democracy isn't the intellectual property of the Americans. It is a universal value which has an ideographic expression. Singapore may look like a one party State but its people feel it is a well functioning Democracy whereas Biden himself admits that America can no longer be complacent in this regard.
President Joko is certainly correct. This summit need not have been a disaster. It should have been an open event where leaders were encouraged to make commitments of a progressive kind. Instead it turned into an exercise in American hegemony at a time when that hegemony faces its most serious challenge.
On the other hand, there was a strong showing from Africa. However, Chinese military aid to Ethiopia (it had previously opposed US led sanctions against that country) is the real game-changer. American troops have now evacuated Somalia and some have gone to Kenya or Djibouti. But the Chinese PLA too has a base in Djibouti. What of France? Previously, Macron was seen as China's rival in Africa. Xi has been pressing him for an alliance there which would also be independent of America. Biden's summit should have been about building a countervailing economic and military 'quad' alliance in the region. However, if Biden- taking a leaf out of the Geroge Soros playbook- goes ahead with funding for journalists and newspaper critical of regimes in the area then African states will be obliged to keep their distance from America while turning to the wholly pragmatic Chinese. Like Soros, Biden's intervention will be counterproductive. Ordinary people will decide that 'Human Rights' is a luxury they can't afford. Let the virtue signalers go to Scandinavia or find a safe space on some Ivy League Campus or get a sinecure with a billion dollar Foundation.
In the MENA region, only Iraq- where the regime looks very shaky- and Israel have been invited. So much for Obama's 'Arab Spring'. Biden has snubbed a vast region of great strategic and cultural importance.
What about Orban- denied an invite though his Visegrad allies got invites? The problem here is that Orban was ahead of the curve on European issues. Pursuing a Soros type vendetta against him will back fire. His rival- a dual citizen of Canada- is a right wing Christian backed by the ideologically highly divided Opposition. It is likely that Marki-Zay will backtrack from his recent pro-Soros and pro-LGBTQ pronouncements which, given his record, few Hungarians believe to be sincere. In other words, even if Orban loses the elections next year, Orbanism will remain in place though perhaps corruption and crony capitalism may decrease. The Continent has moved in Orban's direction not that of Soros or St. Merkel. True, the Left might make a comeback if post COVID 'stagflation' sets in. It remains to seen which way the new German coalition jumps. If it decides it wants Russian gas and to maintain is lucrative export markets in China, then Biden will have presided over the de facto dissolution of NATO. America will return to the splendid isolationism which prevailed before Biden was born. The first, and last, Silent generation President should perhaps have stayed silent even if America no longer carries the biggest stick.
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