The stupidity of the longer telegram

 George Kennan's 1946 'long telegram' is said to mark the US policy of 'containment' re. the USSR. But, that policy failed immediately. The Soviet sphere expanded in Eastern Europe and then China. Only its portion of Austria was handed back- because the Soviets were making too big an economic loss on that territory. Indeed, it was the Soviets inability to turn a profit on their possessions which caused them to throw in the towel. True, Gorby was as stupid as shit and didn't get that when the Party surrendered control of the Economy there would be an immediate 'scissors crisis'. Still, this was not a case of a regime succumbing to its own 'internal contradictions'. It was simply a case of a stupid guy who listened to mathematical economists and a large nomenklatura which realized that they could get rich and live large off Russia's oil. 

We now have a new 'longer telegram' by some anonymous retired official which basically says that the mission for US China strategy should be to see China return to its pre-2013 path—i.e., the pre-Xi strategic status quo. There were, of course, many challenges to US interests during Hu’s second term, but they were manageable and did not represent a serious violation of the US-led international order. All US political and policy responses to China therefore should be focused through the principal lens of Xi himself.

This is crazy shit. Xi's commanding position arises from his having a vision for China which enthuses the masses. He may be corrupt and nepotistic but he is seen to be against unchecked 'feuderai' privilege. True, if he had bungled COVID, then Trump's pressure on him might have triggered a rebellion from below which his rivals would have taken advantage of. But Xi didn't bungle COVID. Trump did. Biden may yet do so. Capital flight from China may have reversed because foreign lockdowns concentrate your mind on the folly of putting your money somewhere you can't get to in a pinch. If this has indeed happened, and rich Chinese are content to keep their kids at home- or to send them to run businesses along the Belt and Road- then Xi has prevailed. The Middle Kingdom is best even if your sons are too stupid to become Mandarins. 

The West's obsession with human rights and things like the Maginstky Act has already completely alienated the Russian and Iranian and Burmese oligarchies. Duterte is threatening to pull the plug on American bases in the Philippines. The obvious solution is to give Taiwan ICBMs. That is enough to give it security. But, equally obviously, America will do no such thing because its big shtick is to create problems, not solve them.

 It is folly to think that the US can topple Xi by telling the Chinese not to be uppity. America wants them to acknowledge that their place is below the salt in the world order. Equally, it is folly to suggest that any country trusts the US to provide a defensive shield. The Biden doctrine, it turns out, is that if American soldiers are on your soil then you should immediately surrender anything the enemy wants till the Pentagon can evacuate every last one of them. 

The 'longer telegram' admits that the US has fucked up its relations with Russia over the last decade. Why pretend the thing can be repaired? 

The one actionable element for Biden in this farrago is the notion that the

fundamental error of US strategy has been to attack China as a whole, thereby enabling Xi’s leadership to circle the wagons within Chinese politics around the emotional pull of Chinese nationalism and civilizational pride. Just as significant an error has been to crudely attack the Chinese Communist Party itself. However, the political reality is that the party is divided on Xi’s leadership where he threatens the lives, careers, and deeply held policy positions of many within its senior political echelons.

If this was an error, it is one that can't be undone. Now Xi has won, it is no good attacking him. The Chinese will understand that this is just a case of sour grapes. America tried to get China to go back to being an ill paid and obsequious waiter but America failed. Now the Americans can't vilify China or the Party that has made it strong and prosperous. So the Americans will vilify Xi- whose dignified bearing and cultured personality make Biden look like a hysterical hayseed by comparison. 

America can ensure that regional powers which have a genuine interest in containing China get the tools they need. But this means giving up on non-proliferation and sanctions against everybody accused of human rights violations. The fact is all militaries, like the Burmese, want some American partnership so as to have a measure of strategic independence. This can be supplied cheaply provided the woke nutters are told to fuck off. 

Who now believes that Uncle Sam must keep all the shiny toys in his own cupboard because he is actually Santa Claus and will turn up on a flying sleigh just when you need him- provided you have been a good little child? 

But then, after COVID who believes that 'senior officials', retired or otherwise, aint as stupid as shit?